OKC

2025-26 Season

JARED MCCAIN

Oklahoma City Thunder | Guard | 6-3
Jared McCain
8.2PPG
2.0RPG
1.3APG
16.7MPG
-3.7 Impact

McCain produces at an below average rate for a 17-minute workload.

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IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
-3.7
Scoring +7.4
Points Scored 8.2 PPG = +8.2
Missed Shots difficulty-adjusted = -3.0
Shot Making above expected FG% = +2.2
Creation +0.4
Assists & Self-Creation 1.3 AST/g + self-creation = +0.4
Turnovers -1.7
Turnovers 0.8/g (live + dead blend) = -1.7
Hustle & Effort +1.3
Rebounds 2.0 RPG (OREB + DREB) = +0.1
Contested Shots 1.6/g = +0.3
Deflections 0.7/g = +0.5
Charges Drawn 0.0/g = +0.1
Loose Balls 0.3/g = +0.2
Screen Assists 0.2/g = +0.1
Raw Impact +7.4
Baseline (game-average expected) −11.1
Net Impact
-3.7
34th pctl vs Guards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 246 Guards with 10+ games

Scoring 45th
8.7 PPG
Efficiency 35th
52.4% TS
Playmaking 21th
1.3 APG
Rebounding 22th
2.1 RPG
Defense 82th
+10.3/g
Hustle 68th
+10.5/g
Creation 70th
+3.38/g
Shot Making 52th
+6.75/g
TO Discipline 70th
0.04/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

Jared McCain's early season was defined by a brutal transition to the professional pace, oscillating wildly between deep shooting slumps and brief flashes of two-way utility. During his 11/23 vs MIA outing, he poured in 15 points off the bench, yet still posted a -1.1 Impact score because severe defensive breakdowns completely erased his offensive production. He finally found his rhythm on 11/29 vs BKN. In that contest, he exploded for a season-high 20 points and logged a massive +21.5 Impact score by pairing hot perimeter shooting with relentless defensive pressure. Interestingly, his most valuable contributions sometimes arrived when his jumper abandoned him completely. In his lone start on 12/24 vs BKN, McCain managed just 10 points on a dismal 3-for-11 from the floor, but he still registered a +4.0 Impact score by crashing the glass for nine rebounds and making extra hustle plays to keep possessions alive. To survive in this league, he must figure out how to consistently bridge the gap between his streaky scoring and his underlying grit.

This stretch was defined by a mid-winter awakening, as McCain clawed his way out of the deep bench to become a volatile but necessary microwave scorer. Early January was simply brutal. During the 01/06 vs DEN matchup, he managed just 3 points on 1-for-4 shooting, posting a dismal -12.6 Impact as forced shots and defensive lapses rendered him virtually unplayable. The script flipped entirely by the 02/20 vs BKN contest. He poured in 21 points on crisp 7-for-12 shooting, generating a massive +18.0 Impact because he finally paired his perimeter scoring with relentless hustle and engaged defense. Still, his offensive outbursts occasionally carried hidden costs, exactly like the 02/12 vs MIL game. Despite tallying 13 points, he registered a -1.4 Impact because his erratic 3-for-9 shot selection and defensive bleeding actively hurt the second unit more than his raw point total helped it. He remains a wild card, but his scoring upside is becoming too loud to ignore.

Jared McCain’s late-season stretch was defined by extreme volatility, oscillating wildly between lethal microwave scoring and hollow, empty-calorie minutes. Look no further than his explosive outing on 03/18 vs BKN, where he poured in 26 points on five made threes to post a massive +17.3 impact score. But when the shots stopped falling, his lack of playmaking made him an absolute liability. During a brutal dud on 03/29 vs NYK, he went scoreless on 0-for-3 shooting, resulting in a disastrous -15.2 impact score simply because he offered zero secondary value to keep the offense afloat. Even when he managed to fill the bucket, the underlying math often punished him. His promotion to the starting lineup on 04/10 vs DEN yielded 15 points on efficient 6-of-11 shooting, yet he still registered a -0.4 impact score. Those hidden costs—nonexistent rebounding and defensive lapses—gave right back to the opponent whatever he produced on the scoreboard.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Inconsistent. McCain has clear good-night/bad-night splits, with scoring swinging ~6 points between games. You're never quite sure which version shows up.

Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 50% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.

Average defender. McCain doesn't hurt you defensively, but he's not making opponents uncomfortable either.

Getting better as the season goes on. First-half impact: -6.0, second-half: -1.4. That's a significant jump — could be a role change, confidence, or development clicking.

Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 3 games. Longest cold streak: 12 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 46 days ago

Based on 65 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

E. Dëmin 46.8 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.19
PTS 9
B. Williams 36.5 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.16
PTS 6
L. Kennard 32.9 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
A. Green 29.3 poss
FG% 75.0%
3P% 75.0%
PPP 0.31
PTS 9
W. Riley 29.1 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.17
PTS 5
V. Krejčí 27.4 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
T. Jones 27.3 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
R. Nembhard 26.5 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.26
PTS 7
G. Trent Jr. 25.1 poss
FG% 75.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.28
PTS 7
A. Thompson 25.1 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.2
PTS 5

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

L. Kennard 41.2 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.05
PTS 2
T. Mann 40.2 poss
FG% 20.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.07
PTS 3
G. Harris 39.4 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
A. Green 35.6 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.17
PTS 6
W. Riley 32.5 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.06
PTS 2
E. Dëmin 32.0 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 14.3%
PPP 0.28
PTS 9
T. Jones 30.6 poss
FG% 20.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.1
PTS 3
B. Brown 30.2 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
N. Traore 28.2 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.35
PTS 10
O. Agbaji 23.6 poss
FG% 42.9%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.3
PTS 7

SEASON STATS

77
Games
8.2
PPG
2.0
RPG
1.3
APG
0.5
SPG
0.1
BPG
42.9
FG%
39.6
3P%
85.5
FT%
16.7
MPG

GAME LOG

77 games played