MIL

2025-26 Season

AJ GREEN

Milwaukee Bucks | Guard | 6-4
AJ Green
9.8 PPG
2.6 RPG
2.0 APG
28.7 MPG
-5.7 Impact

Green produces at an poor rate for a 29-minute workload.

NET IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
-5.7
Scoring +5.9
Points 9.8 PPG × +1.00 = +9.8
Missed 2PT 0.4/g × -0.78 = -0.3
Missed 3PT 4.0/g × -0.87 = -3.5
Missed FT 0.1/g × -1.00 = -0.1
Creation +1.9
Assists 2.0/g × +0.50 = +1.0
Off. Rebounds 0.7/g × +1.26 = +0.9
Turnovers -1.8
Turnovers 0.9/g × -1.95 = -1.8
Defense -0.1
Steals 0.5/g × +2.30 = +1.1
Blocks 0.1/g × +0.90 = +0.1
Def. Rebounds 2.0/g × +0.30 = +0.6
Fouls Committed 2.5/g × -0.75 = -1.9
Hustle & Effort +2.4
Contested Shots 3.8/g × +0.20 = +0.8
Deflections 1.3/g × +0.65 = +0.8
Loose Balls 0.5/g × +0.60 = +0.3
Screen Assists 0.3/g × +0.30 = +0.1
Off. Fouls Drawn 0.1/g uncredited × +2.70 = +0.4
Raw Impact +8.3
Baseline (game-average expected) −14.0
Net Impact
-5.7
1st pctl vs Guards

About this model: Net Impact can't measure floor spacing, help defense rotations, or playmaking gravity — so wings and guards are slightly undervalued vs bigs. How Net Impact works

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 235 Guards with 10+ games

Scoring 52th
9.8 PPG
Efficiency 84th
60.0% TS
Playmaking 34th
2.0 APG
Rebounding 43th
2.6 RPG
Rim Protection 5th
0.06/min
Hustle 24th
0.08/min
Shot Creation 50th
0% pullup
TO Discipline 84th
0.03/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

AJ Green's early season was defined by a glaring paradox: elite floor spacing completely erased by catastrophic defensive vulnerabilities. He operated strictly as a one-dimensional catch-and-shoot threat. During the 01/19 vs ATL matchup, Green drained six triples for 18 points, yet posted a brutal -9.2 impact score because opposing guards relentlessly hunted him in isolation. When the jumper went cold, the bottom fell out entirely. Look no further than 11/07 vs CHI, where his stubborn perimeter shot-hunting resulted in a 2-for-8 shooting night and a disastrous -13.8 impact mark. He did find brief redemption on 11/26 vs MIA, logging a +5.6 impact by pairing his efficient 4-for-6 three-point shooting with eight assists to maximize his offensive touches. Ultimately, Green can hit spot-up threes in his sleep, but his inability to navigate screens or provide point-of-attack resistance makes his heavy minutes a severe liability.

This stretch was an ugly, one-dimensional slump where AJ Green's absolute reliance on the three-point shot routinely handicapped his team. During the 01/04 vs SAC matchup, he threw up a complete dud, missing all six of his deep attempts to generate a dismal -11.6 impact score. When the jumper abandoned him, he offered almost nothing else, acting as an offensive black hole who couldn't find alternative ways to contribute. Even when the shots actually fell, hidden costs dragged him deep into the red, as seen on 01/11 vs DEN. Despite hitting four threes for 14 points in that contest, his impact plummeted to -7.8 because defensive breakdowns and costly live-ball turnovers completely erased his spacing value. He offered a fleeting glimpse of his ideal role on 12/26 vs MEM, drilling six triples for 20 points and a positive +2.8 impact score by making decisive catch-and-shoot reads. Ultimately, unless he is executing as a lethal, high-volume marksman, his defensive lapses and lack of playmaking make him far too costly to keep on the floor.

A brutal defensive slump and empty-calorie shooting defined this miserable midseason stretch for AJ Green. Even when his jumper was falling, his inability to guard his own shadow erased his offensive value. Look at his outing on 02/04 vs NOP. He splashed six threes for 20 points, but still posted a -4.0 impact because his failure to navigate screens surrendered a parade of straight-line drives to the rim. The exact same script played out on 02/25 vs CLE, where 15 points were completely wiped out by severe defensive liabilities that dragged him to a dismal -11.8 impact score. When the jumper abandoned him, he became actively detrimental. During a brutal performance on 03/08 vs ORL, Green stubbornly chucked his way to 4 points on 1-for-8 shooting from deep. That broken rhythm fueled a -14.5 impact, as his long, ill-advised misses consistently ignited the opponent's transition offense.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Struggling. Green has posted negative impact in 85% of games this season. The production rarely outweighs the cost.

Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 49% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.

Good defender on his best nights, but it comes and goes. Some games Green locks in defensively, others he gets picked apart.

Small downward trend. First-half impact: -4.6, second-half: -6.7. Not alarming yet, but trending the wrong direction.

Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 3 games. Longest cold streak: 17 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY

Based on 72 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

C. McCollum 130.0 poss
FG% 37.5%
3P% 37.5%
PPP 0.07
PTS 9
S. Merrill 100.3 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.15
PTS 15
K. Knueppel 65.2 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 60.0%
PPP 0.18
PTS 12
T. Maxey 64.8 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.14
PTS 9
M. Buzelis 61.9 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.19
PTS 12
M. Bridges 56.8 poss
FG% 55.6%
3P% 55.6%
PPP 0.26
PTS 15
D. Bane 51.5 poss
FG% 20.0%
3P% 20.0%
PPP 0.06
PTS 3
A. Nesmith 45.5 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 40.0%
PPP 0.13
PTS 6
S. Curry 45.5 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.07
PTS 3
N. Powell 44.9 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.07
PTS 3

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

S. Merrill 78.1 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.26
PTS 20
M. Buzelis 63.4 poss
FG% 54.5%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.21
PTS 13
J. LaRavia 57.7 poss
FG% 16.7%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.05
PTS 3
T. Johnson 54.6 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.09
PTS 5
C. McCollum 54.2 poss
FG% 63.2%
3P% 71.4%
PPP 0.54
PTS 29
S. James 48.5 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.12
PTS 6
M. Bridges 45.8 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 20.0%
PPP 0.2
PTS 9
A. Nesmith 45.2 poss
FG% 42.9%
3P% 40.0%
PPP 0.29
PTS 13
I. Okoro 45.0 poss
FG% 44.4%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.22
PTS 10
K. Knueppel 44.7 poss
FG% 36.4%
3P% 28.6%
PPP 0.31
PTS 14

SEASON STATS

73
Games
9.8
PPG
2.6
RPG
2.0
APG
0.5
SPG
0.1
BPG
41.8
FG%
41.0
3P%
84.2
FT%
28.7
MPG

GAME LOG

73 games played