DEN

2025-26 Season

TIM HARDAWAY JR.

Denver Nuggets | Guard-Forward | 6-5
Tim Hardaway Jr.
13.1PPG
2.6RPG
1.3APG
26.2MPG
+2.1 Impact

Jr. produces at an above average rate for a 26-minute workload.

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IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
+2.1
Scoring +12.1
Points Scored 13.1 PPG = +13.1
Missed Shots difficulty-adjusted = -4.2
Shot Making above expected FG% = +3.2
Creation +0.8
Assists & Self-Creation 1.3 AST/g + self-creation = +0.8
Turnovers -1.3
Turnovers 0.5/g (live + dead blend) = -1.3
Defense +0.2
Steals 0.5/g = +1.1
Blocks 0.1/g = +0.1
Fouls + context committed fouls, matchup adj = -1.0
Hustle & Effort +1.2
Rebounds 2.6 RPG (OREB + DREB) = -0.2
Contested Shots 2.5/g = +0.5
Deflections 0.7/g = +0.5
Charges Drawn 0.1/g = +0.2
Loose Balls 0.2/g = +0.1
Screen Assists 0.3/g = +0.1
Raw Impact +13.0
Baseline (game-average expected) −10.9
Net Impact
+2.1
70th pctl vs Guards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 246 Guards with 10+ games

Scoring 69th
13.1 PPG
Efficiency 84th
59.0% TS
Playmaking 18th
1.3 APG
Rebounding 44th
2.6 RPG
Defense 41th
+6.8/g
Hustle 22th
+6.3/g
Creation 44th
+2.55/g
Shot Making 80th
+8.61/g
TO Discipline 96th
0.02/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

This stretch was the quintessential Tim Hardaway Jr. experience: a volatile pendulum swinging between scorching hot streaks and frigid, momentum-killing slumps. When his jumper is dialed in, he looks like the ultimate luxury, a peak he reached vs MIN on 11/16. Stepping into the starting lineup, he poured in 23 points on a blistering 5-for-6 from deep, generating a massive +18.6 impact score by warping the floor with his gravity and punishing late closeouts. But the empty-calorie outings are just as frequent, perfectly captured vs SAS on 11/29. He managed a respectable 15 points in that game, yet posted a -5.1 impact because his shot selection devolved into heavily contested pull-ups that stalled the offense and fueled San Antonio's transition attack. Strangely enough, he can occasionally salvage a rough shooting night through sheer effort. During a quiet 7-point outing vs GSW on 11/08, he still scraped together a +2.8 impact by locking in defensively, rotating on time, and making the extra hustle plays that do not always show up in the box score. You live with the erratic shot diet hoping for the fireworks, but the hidden costs often make him a wild card.

This midseason stretch was defined by the volatile, boom-or-bust reality of relying on a pure microwave scorer. When Tim Hardaway Jr.'s jumper caught fire, he was an absolute flamethrower off the bench. He erupted for 25 points on 7-of-11 shooting from deep in the 01/29 vs BKN matchup to generate a massive +23.8 impact score, completely breaking the opposing defensive scheme with his perimeter gravity. But that same trigger-happy mentality cratered the offense when his mechanics failed him. Look no further than his dismal outing in the 01/23 vs WAS game, where he bricked all five of his three-point attempts and managed just 2 points. That night resulted in a brutal -16.7 impact score due to empty possessions and forced, low-quality shots. Yet, he occasionally found ways to contribute when the deep ball refused to fall. During a modest 12-point performance in the 01/15 vs DAL contest, he still posted a +4.1 impact score by keeping the offense flowing with 4 assists and grabbing timely rebounds.

Tim Hardaway Jr.'s late-season stretch was the quintessential boom-or-bust rollercoaster, defined by blistering perimeter barrages that were inevitably followed by ice-cold shooting slumps. When his jumper was falling, he was an absolute flamethrower off the bench. Look no further than the 03/09 vs OKC matchup, where he drained eight three-pointers for 28 points, generating a massive +13.0 impact score through sheer shot-making gravity. But that high-wire act comes with a steep drop-off. Just three days later in the 03/12 vs SAS game, his shot completely abandoned him as he went scoreless from the floor, resulting in a disastrous -22.2 impact score because he offered virtually zero playmaking or defensive resistance to offset the bricks. Yet, he occasionally found ways to be useful even when his primary weapon betrayed him. During the 03/17 vs PHI contest, he scored just nine points on 3-for-11 shooting but still managed a +3.9 impact score by moving the ball for four assists and grabbing four rebounds to keep the second unit afloat. You live by the three and die by the three with Hardaway, accepting the ugly nights to get those game-breaking offensive explosions.

Tim Hardaway Jr.’s late-season stretch was defined by maddening, high-variance volatility off the bench. He could catch fire at a moment's notice, but his scoring outbursts often came with ruinous hidden costs. Look no further than Mar 09 vs OKC, where he poured in 28 points but still posted a brutal -14.3 impact score because his blistering shooting completely masked gaping defensive liabilities. When his outside touch abandoned him, the results were downright catastrophic. His Mar 02 vs UTA performance yielded a ghastly -21.4 impact score as he stubbornly forced isolation attempts and laid bricks from the perimeter. Yet, he occasionally found ways to salvage his minutes when the jumper refused to fall. During Mar 17 vs PHI, Hardaway managed a +6.0 impact score despite scoring just 9 points on 3-of-11 shooting, leveraging strong defensive effort to keep the second unit afloat.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Boom-or-bust player. Jr.'s impact swings wildly relative to his average — some nights dominant, others invisible. Scoring varies by ~7 points per game.

Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 50% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.

Average defender. Jr. doesn't hurt you defensively, but he's not making opponents uncomfortable either.

Small downward trend. First-half impact: +3.0, second-half: +1.3. Not alarming yet, but trending the wrong direction.

Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 7 games. Longest cold streak: 4 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 46 days ago

Based on 74 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

D. DiVincenzo 103.9 poss
FG% 77.8%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.21
PTS 22
I. Joe 57.7 poss
FG% 55.6%
3P% 60.0%
PPP 0.23
PTS 13
A. Thompson 56.4 poss
FG% 14.3%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.05
PTS 3
M. Monk 46.2 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.11
PTS 5
C. Gillespie 44.1 poss
FG% 44.4%
3P% 28.6%
PPP 0.23
PTS 10
R. Nembhard 42.9 poss
FG% 20.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.05
PTS 2
R. Sheppard 40.8 poss
FG% 44.4%
3P% 40.0%
PPP 0.25
PTS 10
K. Thompson 39.8 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.1
PTS 4
L. Kennard 39.6 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.13
PTS 5
J. Smith Jr. 39.2 poss
FG% 42.9%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.2
PTS 8

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

D. DiVincenzo 87.9 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 14.3%
PPP 0.1
PTS 9
A. Thompson 71.2 poss
FG% 42.9%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.17
PTS 12
K. Thompson 64.4 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.19
PTS 12
J. McDaniels 56.2 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.23
PTS 13
I. Joe 46.7 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.11
PTS 5
L. Kennard 40.4 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.05
PTS 2
R. Sheppard 39.1 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.13
PTS 5
D. Bane 38.4 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.16
PTS 6
M. Monk 37.5 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
S. Bey 37.0 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.14
PTS 5

SEASON STATS

87
Games
13.1
PPG
2.6
RPG
1.3
APG
0.5
SPG
0.1
BPG
44.5
FG%
40.4
3P%
80.9
FT%
26.2
MPG

GAME LOG

87 games played