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OKC

2025-26 Season

AJAY MITCHELL

Oklahoma City Thunder | Guard | 6-4
Ajay Mitchell
13.8PPG
3.4RPG
3.7APG
26.3MPG
+5.4 Impact

Mitchell produces at an elite rate for a 26-minute workload.

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IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
+5.4
Scoring +12.6
Points Scored 13.8 PPG = +13.8
Missed Shots difficulty-adjusted = -4.2
Shot Making above expected FG% = +3.0
Creation +1.4
Assists & Self-Creation 3.7 AST/g + self-creation = +1.4
Turnovers -3.4
Turnovers 1.4/g (live + dead blend) = -3.4
Defense +1.3
Steals 1.3/g = +3.0
Blocks 0.3/g = +0.3
Fouls + context committed fouls, matchup adj = -2.0
Hustle & Effort +2.6
Rebounds 3.4 RPG (OREB + DREB) = +0.6
Contested Shots 2.7/g = +0.5
Deflections 1.9/g = +1.2
Charges Drawn 0.0/g = +0.0
Loose Balls 0.5/g = +0.3
Screen Assists 0.1/g = +0.0
Raw Impact +14.5
Baseline (game-average expected) −9.1
Net Impact
+5.4
81st pctl vs Guards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 246 Guards with 10+ games

Scoring 73th
14.0 PPG
Efficiency 79th
58.0% TS
Playmaking 72th
3.8 APG
Rebounding 64th
3.4 RPG
Defense 78th
+10.0/g
Hustle 67th
+10.5/g
Creation 76th
+3.71/g
Shot Making 44th
+6.18/g
TO Discipline 54th
0.05/min

ON / OFF COURT

OKC performance per 100 possessions with Mitchell on vs off the floor · 1,963 poss on, 3,472 off

Team net — ON court
+18.5
ORtg 99.5 · DRtg 81.0
Team net — OFF court
+9.9
ORtg 96.1 · DRtg 86.2
On/Off swing
+8.6
Points per 100 possessions the team gains (or loses) when he plays

THE SEASON SO FAR

Ajay Mitchell’s opening stretch of the season was defined by a rapid evolution from a bench sparkplug into a highly adaptable, high-leverage combo guard. He learned early on that empty calories do not win minutes, a lesson painfully obvious on 10/29 vs SAC. Despite dropping 18 points, his tunnel vision—yielding zero rebounds and just one assist—dragged his Impact down to a -0.5. He flipped that script completely during a gritty performance on 11/05 vs LAC. Even though he managed a meager 8 points, relentless defensive effort and timely hustle plays earned him a robust +8.4 Impact. A brief promotion to the starting lineup unlocked his true playmaking ceiling, peaking on 11/08 vs SAC. He carved the defense apart for 18 points and 10 assists, earning a massive +16.8 Impact through brilliant half-court orchestration and unselfish shot creation. Whether he is running the first unit or grinding out stops as a reserve, Mitchell is figuring out exactly how to influence winning.

This midseason stretch marked Ajay Mitchell's rapid evolution from a chaotic fringe piece into a remarkably efficient offensive engine. He looked completely lost on 11/29 vs PHX, bleeding value with a brutal -14.6 Impact score in just five minutes of action. He rushed his offense, bricking all three of his shot attempts and dragging the lineup down with empty, wasted possessions. Yet, he completely flipped the script by the new year. During a masterclass in offensive economy on 01/01 vs POR, Mitchell earned a massive +16.7 Impact score by converting a flawless 4-for-4 from the field for 17 points while relentlessly crashing the glass for six rebounds. He learned how to scale his aggression perfectly, even when thrust into a heavier role. Given a spot start on 01/10 vs MEM, he poured in 23 points and six assists, maintaining a +7.4 Impact score by actively creating looks for his teammates instead of just hunting his own 18 shots.

Ajay Mitchell’s mid-season run was defined by a chaotic oscillation between a lethal bench sparkplug and an erratic spot-starter. When he stayed within the flow of the offense, the results were devastating. On 01/16 vs HOU, Mitchell torched the nets for 17 points on 7-of-10 shooting, generating a massive +18.6 impact score because of his pristine shot selection and engaged perimeter defense. Yet that discipline vanished on 01/18 vs MIA, where he still managed 15 points but posted a -3.6 impact score. That negative mark stemmed entirely from forcing terrible looks, as he chucked up a 1-of-6 brickfest from beyond the arc that routinely killed offensive momentum. He occasionally found ways to contribute when his jumper abandoned him, like on 03/15 vs MIN. Despite a miserable 4-of-13 shooting night that yielded a low 11 points, Mitchell earned a +4.7 impact score by securing extra possessions through relentless hustle plays and digging in defensively. He remains a highly volatile guard whose nightly value hinges entirely on his offensive restraint.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Very consistent. Mitchell posts positive impact in 79% of games — you almost always get a productive night. Scoring varies by ~6 points, but the overall contribution stays positive.

Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 55% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.

Defensive difference-maker. Mitchell consistently forces tough shots and protects the rim — opponents shoot worse when he's guarding them.

Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 16 games. Longest cold streak: 2 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 20 days ago

Based on 62 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

A. Reaves 61.4 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.2
PTS 12
C. Gillespie 56.7 poss
FG% 45.5%
3P% 40.0%
PPP 0.26
PTS 15
J. Green 50.0 poss
FG% 38.5%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.28
PTS 14
D. Harper 48.7 poss
FG% 75.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.14
PTS 7
K. Caldwell-Pope 41.9 poss
FG% 57.1%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.29
PTS 12
J. Alvarado 40.5 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.02
PTS 1
L. Kennard 39.4 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.36
PTS 14
M. Monk 39.3 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.13
PTS 5
D. Brooks 38.3 poss
FG% 27.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.16
PTS 6
C. Love 37.7 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.16
PTS 6

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

A. Reaves 92.1 poss
FG% 30.0%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.11
PTS 10
C. Gillespie 61.2 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.1
PTS 6
J. Green 54.1 poss
FG% 13.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.07
PTS 4
D. Harper 51.2 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.12
PTS 6
C. Love 47.9 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.23
PTS 11
C. Spencer 45.3 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.22
PTS 10
L. Kennard 43.4 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.16
PTS 7
R. O'Neale 42.3 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.12
PTS 5
M. Monk 41.2 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.17
PTS 7
C. Sexton 40.8 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.17
PTS 7

SEASON STATS

68
Games
13.8
PPG
3.4
RPG
3.7
APG
1.3
SPG
0.3
BPG
48.0
FG%
34.3
3P%
87.5
FT%
26.3
MPG

GAME LOG

68 games played