OKC

2025-26 Season

CHET HOLMGREN

Oklahoma City Thunder | Center-Forward | 7-1
Chet Holmgren
17.1PPG
8.9RPG
1.6APG
29.3MPG
+13.7 Impact

Holmgren produces at an elite rate for a 29-minute workload.

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IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
+13.7
Scoring +15.7
Points Scored 17.1 PPG = +17.1
Missed Shots difficulty-adjusted = -4.2
Shot Making above expected FG% = +2.8
Creation +1.3
Assists & Self-Creation 1.6 AST/g + self-creation = +1.3
Turnovers -3.5
Turnovers 1.5/g (live + dead blend) = -3.5
Defense +0.2
Steals 0.7/g = +1.6
Blocks 1.9/g = +1.7
Fouls + context committed fouls, matchup adj = -3.1
Hustle & Effort +7.9
Rebounds 8.9 RPG (OREB + DREB) = +5.1
Contested Shots 8.2/g = +1.6
Deflections 1.0/g = +0.7
Charges Drawn 0.0/g = +0.0
Loose Balls 0.3/g = +0.2
Screen Assists 1.1/g = +0.3
Raw Impact +21.6
Baseline (game-average expected) −7.9
Net Impact
+13.7
90th pctl vs Centers

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 93 Centers with 10+ games

Scoring 87th
17.1 PPG
Efficiency 76th
64.1% TS
Playmaking 58th
1.6 APG
Rebounding 82th
8.9 RPG
Defense 66th
+7.4/g
Hustle 78th
+21.8/g
Creation 68th
+2.95/g
Shot Making 87th
+7.88/g
TO Discipline 45th
0.05/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

Chet Holmgren spent the opening stretch of the season transforming from a pure rim-protector into a ruthlessly efficient offensive hub. His ceiling was staggering on 10/25 vs ATL, where he buried six threes to rack up 31 points and 11 rebounds. That elite shot selection and glass-cleaning dominance generated a massive +40.0 Impact score. He was just as lethal inside the arc on 11/12 vs GSW, posting a flawless 9-for-9 shooting night that yielded a +22.6 Impact. Yet, even when his jumper completely abandoned him, Holmgren found ways to tilt the floor. On 10/23 vs IND, he clanked all six of his three-point attempts and scored a modest 15 points, but still managed a +7.1 Impact. He salvaged his overall value in that ugly contest by battling for 12 rebounds and securing crucial extra possessions. When his jumper falls, he warps the geometry of the court; when it clanks, his relentless motor keeps him firmly in the green.

This midseason stretch defined Chet Holmgren as a two-way terror who can absolutely hijack a basketball game without dominating the ball. He no longer needs twenty shots to wreck an opponent's game plan. Look at his 01/03 vs GSW performance, where he attempted just eight field goals but generated a massive +25.2 Impact score by vacuuming up 15 rebounds and keeping the offense flowing with four assists. Even on nights when his scoring completely vanished, like the 01/14 vs SAS matchup where he tallied just eight points, he still produced a +8.3 Impact score through relentless defensive effort and securing ten boards. He creates immense value through sheer hustle and spatial intimidation. However, he occasionally lets opponents off the hook by falling in love with his perimeter shot. His meager +0.9 Impact score on 02/01 vs DEN was a direct result of poor shot selection, as he chucked up seven three-pointers while grabbing a measly four rebounds.

This late-season stretch was defined by Holmgren transforming into an absolute terror on the glass while maintaining ruthless offensive efficiency. Look no further than his monstrous performance on 02/27 vs DEN, where he ripped down 21 rebounds to generate a massive +26.2 Impact score. That towering metric stemmed directly from his relentless effort to end possessions defensively and his highly selective 5-for-8 shooting. Even when his shot abandoned him during a quiet 7-point outing on 02/24 vs TOR, he still managed to post a +9.3 Impact. He kept the offense moving with four assists and fought for nine crucial rebounds, creating immense non-scoring value without demanding touches. The climax arrived on 04/08 vs LAC. He unleashed his full offensive arsenal, hanging 30 points on blistering 10-for-13 shooting. Those buckets, combined with 14 boards and five assists, pushed his Impact to a staggering +36.7.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Very consistent. Holmgren posts positive impact in 94% of games — you almost always get a productive night. Scoring varies by ~6 points, but the overall contribution stays positive.

Reliable shooter — hits 45%+ from the field in 77% of games. You can count on efficient nights more often than not.

Defensive difference-maker. Holmgren consistently forces tough shots and protects the rim — opponents shoot worse when he's guarding them.

Hot right now — 19 straight games with positive impact. Longest positive run this season: 20 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 46 days ago

Based on 66 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

J. Randle 80.7 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.1
PTS 8
B. Adebayo 65.3 poss
FG% 57.1%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.12
PTS 8
H. Barnes 64.8 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.15
PTS 10
P. Siakam 58.0 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.17
PTS 10
M. Williams 53.7 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.22
PTS 12
J. Smith Jr. 50.0 poss
FG% 57.1%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.22
PTS 11
R. O'Neale 49.6 poss
FG% 72.7%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.42
PTS 21
E. Mobley 49.2 poss
FG% 53.8%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.37
PTS 18
N. Reid 48.3 poss
FG% 71.4%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.31
PTS 15
D. Brooks 46.4 poss
FG% 75.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.13
PTS 6

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

M. Williams 94.4 poss
FG% 45.5%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.13
PTS 12
H. Barnes 77.6 poss
FG% 43.8%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.18
PTS 14
B. Adebayo 72.8 poss
FG% 47.1%
3P% 80.0%
PPP 0.27
PTS 20
A. Sengun 69.2 poss
FG% 42.1%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.3
PTS 21
R. Gobert 68.5 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.09
PTS 6
E. Mobley 53.2 poss
FG% 71.4%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.41
PTS 22
J. Nurkić 52.6 poss
FG% 31.2%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.19
PTS 10
I. Zubac 52.2 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.11
PTS 6
J. Randle 41.4 poss
FG% 30.8%
3P% 60.0%
PPP 0.31
PTS 13
C. Braun 39.6 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.13
PTS 5

SEASON STATS

79
Games
17.1
PPG
8.9
RPG
1.6
APG
0.7
SPG
1.9
BPG
55.9
FG%
36.4
3P%
80.1
FT%
29.3
MPG

GAME LOG

79 games played