OKC

2025-26 Season

CHET HOLMGREN

Oklahoma City Thunder | Center-Forward | 7-1
Chet Holmgren
16.9 PPG
8.8 RPG
1.6 APG
29.1 MPG
+7.8 Impact

Holmgren produces at an elite rate for a 29-minute workload. Elite defensive value (+3.2/game) is a major strength.

NET IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
+7.8
Scoring +11.9
Points 16.9 PPG × +1.00 = +16.9
Missed 2PT 2.8/g × -0.78 = -2.2
Missed 3PT 2.3/g × -0.87 = -2.0
Missed FT 0.8/g × -1.00 = -0.8
Creation +3.6
Assists 1.6/g × +0.50 = +0.8
Off. Rebounds 2.2/g × +1.26 = +2.8
Turnovers -3.1
Turnovers 1.6/g × -1.95 = -3.1
Defense +3.2
Steals 0.6/g × +2.30 = +1.4
Blocks 1.9/g × +0.90 = +1.7
Def. Rebounds 6.6/g × +0.30 = +2.0
Fouls Committed 2.5/g × -0.75 = -1.9
Hustle & Effort +3.9
Contested Shots 10.0/g × +0.20 = +2.0
Deflections 1.3/g × +0.65 = +0.8
Loose Balls 0.4/g × +0.60 = +0.2
Screen Assists 1.3/g × +0.30 = +0.4
Off. Fouls Drawn 0.2/g uncredited × +2.70 = +0.5
Raw Impact +19.5
Baseline (game-average expected) −11.7
Net Impact
+7.8
91st pctl vs Centers

About this model: Net Impact can't measure floor spacing, help defense rotations, or playmaking gravity — so wings and guards are slightly undervalued vs bigs. How Net Impact works

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 92 Centers with 10+ games

Scoring 85th
16.9 PPG
Efficiency 73th
63.9% TS
Playmaking 60th
1.6 APG
Rebounding 82th
8.8 RPG
Rim Protection 90th
0.25/min
Hustle 68th
0.12/min
Shot Creation 50th
0% pullup
TO Discipline 41th
0.05/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

Chet Holmgren’s opening stretch was defined by a dizzying pendulum swing between terrifying two-way dominance and bafflingly empty minutes. When his jumper falls, he is a basketball alien. Look at 10/25 vs ATL, where he erupted for 31 points and a staggering +22.0 impact. That massive score stemmed directly from scorching perimeter efficiency, as hitting 6 of 8 from deep completely warped the half-court geometry. Yet, raw point totals often masked hidden costs that dragged down his overall grade. During the 11/19 vs SAC matchup, Holmgren poured in 21 points on 10-of-15 shooting but still registered a -3.1 impact because a brutal -6.1 defensive score bled away all his offensive value. Conversely, on 10/23 vs IND, he bricked all six of his three-point attempts for a mere 15 points, but still scraped out a positive +1.6 impact. He salvaged that rough shooting night entirely through grit, using a massive +4.6 hustle score to generate crucial extra possessions when his scoring touch vanished.

This twenty-game stretch was defined by Holmgren morphing into a terrifying, game-wrecking defensive anchor who could completely hijack contests without demanding the basketball. His masterclass on 12/31 vs POR perfectly captured this evolution. Despite managing a modest 12 points, he generated a massive +13.2 impact score by erasing everything near the rim, racking up a +19.2 defensive mark and a +7.0 hustle score. When his perimeter stroke actually clicked, he became utterly unguardable. He torched primary coverages with a lethal pick-and-pop game on 12/28 vs PHI, dropping 29 points for a +7.8 impact. However, Holmgren remains vulnerable to bouts of passive offensive execution. He actively bled value on 01/21 vs MIL, posting a -4.2 impact score because he settled for contested jumpers rather than aggressively attacking the paint.

This mid-season stretch was defined by Holmgren transforming from a mere shot-blocker into a terrifying, geometry-altering defensive anchor. Even when his offensive touch vanished, his sheer presence in the paint salvaged his overall value. During the 02/24 vs TOR matchup, he managed a meager 7 points on eight shots, yet still generated a +3.5 impact score because his elite defensive positioning completely suffocated the opposing offense. Conversely, poor shot selection could easily tank his effectiveness. On 02/01 vs DEN, he settled for terrible perimeter looks, bricking six of his seven three-point attempts to drag his impact down to a dismal -6.1. When he actually blended efficient interior finishing with his natural rim deterrence, the results were devastating. He delivered an absolute masterclass on 03/15 vs MIN, posting a massive +20.1 impact score by combining 21 points on 9-of-13 shooting with a defensive footprint that warped the opponent's entire scheme.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Very consistent. Holmgren posts positive impact in 80% of games — you almost always get a productive night. Scoring varies by ~6 points, but the overall contribution stays positive.

Reliable shooter — hits 45%+ from the field in 73% of games. You can count on efficient nights more often than not.

Defensive difference-maker. Holmgren consistently forces tough shots and protects the rim — opponents shoot worse when he's guarding them.

Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 12 games. Longest cold streak: 2 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY

Based on 66 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

J. Randle 80.7 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.1
PTS 8
B. Adebayo 65.3 poss
FG% 57.1%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.12
PTS 8
H. Barnes 64.8 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.15
PTS 10
P. Siakam 58.0 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.17
PTS 10
M. Williams 53.7 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.22
PTS 12
J. Smith Jr. 50.0 poss
FG% 57.1%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.22
PTS 11
R. O'Neale 49.6 poss
FG% 72.7%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.42
PTS 21
E. Mobley 49.2 poss
FG% 53.8%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.37
PTS 18
N. Reid 48.3 poss
FG% 71.4%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.31
PTS 15
D. Brooks 46.4 poss
FG% 75.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.13
PTS 6

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

M. Williams 94.4 poss
FG% 45.5%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.13
PTS 12
H. Barnes 77.6 poss
FG% 43.8%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.18
PTS 14
B. Adebayo 72.8 poss
FG% 47.1%
3P% 80.0%
PPP 0.27
PTS 20
A. Sengun 69.2 poss
FG% 42.1%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.3
PTS 21
R. Gobert 68.5 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.09
PTS 6
E. Mobley 53.2 poss
FG% 71.4%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.41
PTS 22
J. Nurkić 52.6 poss
FG% 31.2%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.19
PTS 10
I. Zubac 52.2 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.11
PTS 6
J. Randle 41.4 poss
FG% 30.8%
3P% 60.0%
PPP 0.31
PTS 13
C. Braun 39.6 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.13
PTS 5

SEASON STATS

65
Games
16.9
PPG
8.8
RPG
1.6
APG
0.6
SPG
1.9
BPG
55.1
FG%
35.1
3P%
79.8
FT%
29.1
MPG

GAME LOG

65 games played