CLE

2025-26 Season

JAMES HARDEN

Cleveland Cavaliers | Guard | 6-5
James Harden
23.6 PPG
4.9 RPG
8.1 APG
35.0 MPG
+0.8 Impact

Harden produces at an average rate for a 35-minute workload. 3.5 turnovers per game cost 6.8 points of value nightly.

NET IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
+0.8
Scoring +15.1
Points 23.6 PPG × +1.00 = +23.6
Missed 2PT 3.9/g × -0.78 = -3.1
Missed 3PT 5.1/g × -0.87 = -4.5
Missed FT 0.9/g × -1.00 = -0.9
Creation +5.5
Assists 8.1/g × +0.50 = +4.0
Off. Rebounds 1.2/g × +1.26 = +1.5
Turnovers -6.8
Turnovers 3.5/g × -1.95 = -6.8
Defense +2.1
Steals 1.1/g × +2.30 = +2.5
Blocks 0.4/g × +0.90 = +0.4
Def. Rebounds 3.7/g × +0.30 = +1.1
Fouls Committed 2.5/g × -0.75 = -1.9
Hustle & Effort +2.3
Contested Shots 3.1/g × +0.20 = +0.6
Deflections 1.9/g × +0.65 = +1.2
Loose Balls 0.7/g × +0.60 = +0.4
Off. Fouls Drawn 0.0/g uncredited × +2.70 = +0.1
Raw Impact +18.2
Baseline (game-average expected) −17.4
Net Impact
+0.8
77th pctl vs Guards

About this model: Net Impact can't measure floor spacing, help defense rotations, or playmaking gravity — so wings and guards are slightly undervalued vs bigs. How Net Impact works

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 235 Guards with 10+ games

Scoring 95th
23.6 PPG
Efficiency 95th
62.3% TS
Playmaking 99th
8.1 APG
Rebounding 87th
4.9 RPG
Rim Protection 56th
0.12/min
Hustle 8th
0.07/min
Shot Creation 50th
0% pullup
TO Discipline 7th
0.10/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

James Harden’s first twenty games were defined by a maddening Jekyll-and-Hyde routine, oscillating wildly between offensive supernova and isolation black hole. High scoring totals frequently masked a detrimental on-court reality. Take 11/17 vs PHI as a prime example. He dropped 28 points, yet posted a -0.5 impact score because a brutal volume of clanked perimeter attempts completely negated his scoring output. Conversely, he occasionally salvaged ugly shooting nights through sheer basketball IQ. During 11/12 vs DEN, Harden generated a +5.7 impact despite miserable shooting by leaning on a steady diet of drawn fouls and precise half-court orchestration. When the step-back jumper actually falls, he remains a terrifying force. In the 11/22 vs CHA game, he erupted for 55 points and a staggering +29.3 impact score fueled by an unstoppable barrage of three-pointers.

A maddening rollercoaster of brilliant orchestration offset by brutal, momentum-killing shot selection defined this twenty-game stretch for James Harden. Look at the 01/16 vs TOR game, where he dropped 31 points and 10 assists but still posted a -1.6 impact score. That negative mark stemmed directly from a disastrous shot diet beyond the arc, as he drained just two of his fifteen three-point attempts and turned high usage into empty possessions. The wheels completely fell off again during the 01/22 vs LAL matchup, where forced jumpers and heavy isolation volume on 6-for-21 shooting resulted in a dismal -11.4 impact. Yet, when he actually engaged defensively and surgically manipulated drop coverage, he was unstoppable. He carved up the defense on 12/26 vs POR for 34 points and a towering +18.8 impact score. Harden remains a brilliant maestro when running the pick-and-roll, but his stubborn reliance on contested step-backs and bouts of lethargic transition defense continue to bleed away his actual on-court value.

This stretch was defined by a jarring Jekyll-and-Hyde duality, where brilliant offensive orchestration frequently collided with maddening bouts of apathy. Hidden costs constantly wrecked his actual value. Look at the 03/01 vs BKN matchup, where 22 points and 8 assists were entirely undone by careless perimeter turnovers that dragged his impact score down to a negative -6.4. The absolute nadir arrived on 03/15 vs DAL, where a stagnant offensive approach and a barrage of low-percentage jumpers tanked his value to a catastrophic -18.7 impact score. Clean execution flipped the script entirely. During the 02/19 vs BKN game, he managed a stellar +11.6 impact score on just 16 points because pristine shot selection and masterful half-court orchestration generated massive value without demanding heavy shot volume. Harden remains a surgical pick-and-roll maestro, but this volatile stretch makes it clear that his overall effectiveness is entirely hostage to his focus level.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Boom-or-bust player. Harden's impact swings wildly relative to his average — some nights dominant, others invisible. Scoring varies by ~8 points per game.

Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 42% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.

Defensive difference-maker. Harden consistently forces tough shots and protects the rim — opponents shoot worse when he's guarding them.

Small downward trend. First-half impact: +1.7, second-half: +0.0. Not alarming yet, but trending the wrong direction.

MATCHUP HISTORY

Based on 67 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

N. Marshall 118.7 poss
FG% 68.8%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.22
PTS 26
J. Wells 116.9 poss
FG% 37.5%
3P% 45.5%
PPP 0.18
PTS 21
D. Mitchell 104.3 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.19
PTS 20
S. James 65.0 poss
FG% 47.4%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.34
PTS 22
D. Daniels 63.0 poss
FG% 53.8%
3P% 55.6%
PPP 0.3
PTS 19
A. Thompson 62.4 poss
FG% 30.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.24
PTS 15
C. Wallace 62.3 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.21
PTS 13
T. Camara 61.9 poss
FG% 71.4%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.24
PTS 15
P. Banchero 60.8 poss
FG% 76.9%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.44
PTS 27
M. Smart 59.0 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 28.6%
PPP 0.25
PTS 15

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

C. Flagg 76.3 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.24
PTS 18
J. Wells 73.6 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 60.0%
PPP 0.26
PTS 19
N. Marshall 65.7 poss
FG% 70.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.23
PTS 15
L. James 63.0 poss
FG% 44.4%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.14
PTS 9
D. Daniels 62.4 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
A. Wiggins 58.7 poss
FG% 72.7%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.34
PTS 20
L. Dončić 57.7 poss
FG% 35.0%
3P% 16.7%
PPP 0.26
PTS 15
D. Mitchell 55.2 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.09
PTS 5
J. Brown 54.4 poss
FG% 63.6%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.28
PTS 15
B. Sensabaugh 49.0 poss
FG% 22.2%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.08
PTS 4

SEASON STATS

67
Games
23.6
PPG
4.9
RPG
8.1
APG
1.1
SPG
0.4
BPG
43.6
FG%
37.4
3P%
88.1
FT%
35.0
MPG

GAME LOG

67 games played