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MIA

2025-26 Season

DAVION MITCHELL

Miami Heat | Guard | 6-0
Davion Mitchell
9.6PPG
2.7RPG
6.5APG
28.8MPG
-2.7 Impact

Mitchell produces at an below average rate for a 29-minute workload.

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IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
-2.7
Scoring +8.9
Points Scored 9.6 PPG = +9.6
Missed Shots difficulty-adjusted = -3.2
Shot Making above expected FG% = +2.5
Creation +0.8
Assists & Self-Creation 6.5 AST/g + self-creation = +0.8
Turnovers -3.5
Turnovers 1.5/g (live + dead blend) = -3.5
Hustle & Effort +1.7
Rebounds 2.7 RPG (OREB + DREB) = -0.7
Contested Shots 2.7/g = +0.5
Deflections 1.8/g = +1.2
Charges Drawn 0.1/g = +0.3
Loose Balls 0.4/g = +0.3
Screen Assists 0.2/g = +0.1
Raw Impact +7.9
Baseline (game-average expected) −10.6
Net Impact
-2.7
43th pctl vs Guards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 246 Guards with 10+ games

Scoring 51th
9.6 PPG
Efficiency 80th
58.1% TS
Playmaking 92th
6.5 APG
Rebounding 45th
2.7 RPG
Defense 32th
+5.6/g
Hustle 46th
+8.9/g
Creation 54th
+2.99/g
Shot Making 64th
+7.57/g
TO Discipline 55th
0.05/min

ON / OFF COURT

MIA performance per 100 possessions with Mitchell on vs off the floor · 3,435 poss on, 2,974 off

Team net — ON court
+5.7
ORtg 96.0 · DRtg 90.3
Team net — OFF court
-2.8
ORtg 87.8 · DRtg 90.6
On/Off swing
+8.5
Points per 100 possessions the team gains (or loses) when he plays

THE SEASON SO FAR

Davion Mitchell's opening stretch of the 2025-26 season was defined by a maddening Jekyll-and-Hyde act at the point guard position. When he actively hunted his shot, he looked brilliant. During the 12/02 vs LAC matchup, he logged 16 points and 12 assists on a flawless 6-for-6 from the floor to earn a stellar +8.8 Impact score. Yet, he too often faded into the background and refused to look at the rim. Look no further than his 11/27 vs MIL performance, where his extreme passivity and refusal to attack the defense dragged him to an abysmal -14.5 Impact score despite dishing out nine assists. He did occasionally salvage his value when his scoring vanished, like on 11/23 vs PHI. Mitchell scored only 8 points that night, but his relentless rebounding from the guard spot and elite playmaking generated a +1.1 Impact.

Davion Mitchell’s midseason stretch was defined by hollow production. His starting role yielded a brutal string of negative impacts despite occasional flashes of playmaking. Take the 12/21 vs NYK matchup, where he tallied 13 points and eight assists on crisp 5-for-8 shooting, yet still posted a dismal -8.2 Impact score. Those counting stats masked hidden costs, as defensive lapses and poor execution during his shifts allowed New York to completely control the floor. Conversely, his 01/20 vs GSW performance reveals how he can actually help a team without filling up the basket. He shot a miserable 1-for-6 from the field for just seven points, but earned a +3.8 Impact score by grabbing six rebounds and generating extra possessions through sheer hustle. Unfortunately, those gritty efforts were overshadowed by disasters like the 12/24 vs TOR game. In that contest, a 1-for-6 shooting night resulted in a catastrophic -16.4 Impact score because he failed to create any alternative value to offset his broken jumper.

Davion Mitchell’s late-season stretch was defined by erratic offensive output, oscillating wildly between offensive invisibility and sudden bursts of primary-creator volume. He bottomed out completely on 03/27 vs CLE. During that dud, he posted an Impact of -19.7 because he bricked five of his six field goals and completely failed to connect from deep. Even when his raw box score numbers looked robust, like his 15-point, nine-assist outing on 03/21 vs HOU, his overall value still dipped into the red with an Impact of -0.3. That slightly negative rating stemmed directly from the hidden cost of chucking ten three-pointers and only sinking three, wasting valuable offensive possessions. Yet, Mitchell flipped a switch in April. He played all 48 minutes on 04/14 vs CHA, pouring in 28 points on 24 shot attempts to generate a staggering Impact of +19.9. When he actually hits his perimeter looks and commands the floor with aggressive volume, his ceiling remains incredibly high.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Boom-or-bust player. Mitchell's impact swings wildly relative to his average — some nights dominant, others invisible. Scoring varies by ~5 points per game.

Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 60% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.

Good defender on his best nights, but it comes and goes. Some games Mitchell locks in defensively, others he gets picked apart.

Slight upward trend. First-half impact: -3.5, second-half: -1.8. Modest improvement — possibly settling into a rhythm.

Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 3 games. Longest cold streak: 11 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 20 days ago

Based on 69 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

L. Ball 110.2 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 57.1%
PPP 0.2
PTS 22
T. Maxey 83.3 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 60.0%
PPP 0.22
PTS 18
B. Carrington 78.4 poss
FG% 44.4%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.11
PTS 9
C. Cunningham 78.0 poss
FG% 53.8%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.21
PTS 16
I. Quickley 72.3 poss
FG% 75.0%
3P% 75.0%
PPP 0.21
PTS 15
J. Brunson 66.5 poss
FG% 44.4%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.18
PTS 12
R. Sheppard 62.4 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.13
PTS 8
M. McBride 57.5 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.09
PTS 5
R. Rollins 55.6 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.05
PTS 3
J. Harden 55.2 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.09
PTS 5

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

J. Harden 104.3 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.19
PTS 20
L. Ball 96.5 poss
FG% 52.6%
3P% 40.0%
PPP 0.31
PTS 30
D. Bane 93.5 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.31
PTS 29
C. Cunningham 90.3 poss
FG% 27.8%
3P% 28.6%
PPP 0.16
PTS 14
T. Maxey 82.3 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 28.6%
PPP 0.22
PTS 18
B. Carrington 74.3 poss
FG% 42.9%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.08
PTS 6
J. Brunson 64.9 poss
FG% 56.2%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.43
PTS 28
M. McBride 64.9 poss
FG% 46.2%
3P% 42.9%
PPP 0.23
PTS 15
J. Murray 63.2 poss
FG% 46.7%
3P% 40.0%
PPP 0.27
PTS 17
R. Rollins 60.6 poss
FG% 37.5%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.13
PTS 8

SEASON STATS

71
Games
9.6
PPG
2.7
RPG
6.5
APG
1.0
SPG
0.2
BPG
49.0
FG%
39.7
3P%
64.6
FT%
28.8
MPG

GAME LOG

71 games played