2025-26 Season
JOHN COLLINS
2025-26 Season
JOHN COLLINS
Collins produces at an above average rate for a 28-minute workload.
About this model: Net Impact can't measure floor spacing, help defense rotations, or playmaking gravity — so wings and guards are slightly undervalued vs bigs. How Net Impact works
TEAM COMPARISON
of 18 teammates (10+ games, 10+ min)
SKILL DNA
Percentile rank vs 227 Forwards with 10+ games
THE SEASON SO FAR
John Collins's first twenty games were defined by a stark transition from an explosive bench weapon to an overexposed starter bleeding value. Coming off the pine early on, he thrived as a ruthless roll man, posting a massive +8.1 impact score on 10/26 vs POR by punishing late rotations for 16 points on near-perfect 7/8 shooting. But once he entered the starting lineup in mid-November, his hidden costs became glaringly obvious. Even when his shot was falling, like his 18-point outburst on 11/25 vs LAL, he still managed a negative -1.3 impact because severe defensive lapses and a total lack of secondary playmaking completely undercut his scoring efficiency. When the offense dried up, the results were catastrophic. On 11/12 vs DEN, abysmal touch around the rim dragged him to a brutal -10.7 impact score with just 2 points in 21 minutes. He can clearly still finish plays at a high level, but asking him to anchor a starting unit exposes every flaw in his defensive awareness.
John Collins spent this twenty-game stretch oscillating wildly between two-way dominance and frustrating defensive lapses. When his focus wavered, his scoring totals became a complete mirage. On 01/05 vs GSW, he dropped a healthy 18 points yet dragged his team down to a -4.9 impact score because chronic defensive miscommunications and poor rotational timing bled easy baskets. Conversely, he could control a game without needing the ball at all. During his 01/01 vs UTA outing, Collins scored merely 8 points but generated a robust +9.2 impact by relentlessly dominating the glass with 11 rebounds and providing stout interior defense. When his offensive efficiency finally aligned with engaged rim protection, he was downright lethal. Look no further than his 12/20 vs LAL performance, where exceptional shot selection and dominant rim protection yielded 17 points, 12 boards, and a massive +15.5 impact mark.
Extreme volatility defined John Collins’s midseason run, as his value swung wildly between elite floor spacing and crippling defensive apathy. When fully engaged, he looked like the ideal modern frontcourt weapon. Look at his 01/30 vs DEN performance, where his perimeter gravity yielded 18 points and a massive +16.3 impact score. Yet, that offensive brilliance frequently masked a porous interior presence that bled points on the other end. During the 02/02 vs PHI matchup, he dropped an efficient 15 points but still posted a brutal -11.0 impact because his defensive lapses completely compromised the scheme. Thankfully, he eventually found ways to contribute without the ball in his hands. Even when his shot abandoned him on 03/27 vs IND, he managed a +3.1 impact with just 5 points by relying on sharp defensive rotations and timely rim protection to keep his team afloat.
IMPACT TIMELINE
Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.
Boom-or-bust player. Collins's impact swings wildly relative to his average — some nights dominant, others invisible. Scoring varies by ~5 points per game.
Reliable shooter — hits 45%+ from the field in 73% of games. You can count on efficient nights more often than not.
Defensive difference-maker. Collins consistently forces tough shots and protects the rim — opponents shoot worse when he's guarding them.
Hot right now — 4 straight games with positive impact. Longest positive run this season: 6 games.
MATCHUP HISTORY
Based on 66 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.
ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM
His shooting stats against each primary defender this season
ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED
How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.
SEASON STATS
GAME LOG
64 games played