HOU

2025-26 Season

JABARI SMITH JR.

Houston Rockets | Forward | 6-11
Jabari Smith Jr.
15.9PPG
7.0RPG
1.9APG
35.6MPG
+7.6 Impact

Jr. produces at an elite rate for a 36-minute workload.

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IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
+7.6
Scoring +13.5
Points Scored 15.9 PPG = +15.9
Missed Shots difficulty-adjusted = -5.9
Shot Making above expected FG% = +3.5
Creation +0.8
Assists & Self-Creation 1.9 AST/g + self-creation = +0.8
Turnovers -3.0
Turnovers 1.3/g (live + dead blend) = -3.0
Defense -0.1
Steals 0.7/g = +1.6
Blocks 0.9/g = +0.8
Fouls + context committed fouls, matchup adj = -2.5
Hustle & Effort +6.0
Rebounds 7.0 RPG (OREB + DREB) = +3.8
Contested Shots 5.2/g = +1.0
Deflections 1.3/g = +0.9
Charges Drawn 0.0/g = +0.0
Loose Balls 0.4/g = +0.2
Screen Assists 0.4/g = +0.1
Raw Impact +17.2
Baseline (game-average expected) −9.6
Net Impact
+7.6
83th pctl vs Forwards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 235 Forwards with 10+ games

Scoring 80th
15.9 PPG
Efficiency 58th
57.5% TS
Playmaking 59th
1.9 APG
Rebounding 90th
7.0 RPG
Defense 79th
+9.6/g
Hustle 92th
+19.4/g
Creation 66th
+2.86/g
Shot Making 85th
+8.72/g
TO Discipline 75th
0.04/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

Jabari Smith Jr. spent the first quarter of the 2025-26 season morphing into a high-utility chameleon, finding ways to violently tilt games even when his shot volume dipped. Look at the 10/27 vs BKN matchup, where he posted a massive +12.2 Impact score despite scoring just 11 points. Instead of forcing bad looks, he played within the flow of the offense on an efficient 4-for-7 shooting night while generating immense non-scoring value through relentless defensive rotations and timely hustle plays. Conversely, his overall value could easily slip into the red when his peripheral effort vanished, perfectly illustrated by the 11/06 vs MEM contest. He poured in a highly efficient 16 points on 6-for-8 from the floor, yet posted a -1.1 Impact score because his hidden costs—grabbing just 4 rebounds in 36 minutes while offering minimal defensive resistance—dragged the entire lineup down. But when the perimeter stroke and the motor connected simultaneously, as they did on 10/29 vs TOR, he was utterly terrifying. He dropped 25 points and dished 5 assists in that game, earning a staggering +24.4 Impact score by pairing his dangerous floor-spacing gravity with active, unselfish playmaking.

Jabari Smith Jr. spent this stretch of the season riding a chaotic offensive rollercoaster, alternating between frigid shooting slumps and scorching perimeter barrages. The absolute nadir of his winter arrived on 01/10 vs POR. He clanked his way to a dismal -5.7 Impact score in that contest, dragging down his value with catastrophic shot selection that included an atrocious 0-for-10 showing from beyond the arc. He dramatically flipped the script just over a week later during the 01/19 vs NOP matchup. Pouring in 32 points on 7-of-13 shooting from deep, Smith generated a massive +28.2 Impact score by finally punishing closeouts and finding his rhythm. Yet his true value often surfaced on nights when his raw scoring totals dipped, perfectly illustrated by the 01/29 vs ATL game. Despite managing only 14 points, he posted a stellar +17.2 Impact score by wrecking the opponent's offensive flow with elite defensive rotations and relentless hustle. He remains a maddeningly inconsistent shooter, but his defensive motor keeps him highly effective even on his coldest nights.

This late-season stretch was defined by extreme volatility, with Jabari Smith Jr. oscillating wildly between untouchable sniper and offensive black hole. He reached his absolute peak on 02/23 vs UTA. Dropping 31 points on a blistering 12-for-17 from the floor, his elite shot selection fueled a massive +27.2 Impact score. Yet, his tunnel vision frequently betrayed him, a flaw glaringly obvious during the 04/09 vs PHI matchup. Despite scoring a respectable 19 points, his abysmal 1-for-7 shooting from beyond the arc and complete failure to register a single assist dragged his Impact score down to a costly -5.7. Conversely, he occasionally found ways to salvage rough shooting nights through sheer grit on the glass. During the 04/18 vs LAL contest, Smith shot an ugly 5-for-14 from the field but still posted a stellar +19.6 Impact score because he relentlessly attacked the boards to grab 12 crucial rebounds.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Very consistent. Jr. posts positive impact in 80% of games — you almost always get a productive night. Scoring varies by ~5 points, but the overall contribution stays positive.

Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 53% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.

Defensive difference-maker. Jr. consistently forces tough shots and protects the rim — opponents shoot worse when he's guarding them.

Hot right now — 7 straight games with positive impact. Longest positive run this season: 13 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 46 days ago

Based on 74 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

C. Johnson 109.7 poss
FG% 38.9%
3P% 55.6%
PPP 0.19
PTS 21
D. DeRozan 103.2 poss
FG% 28.6%
3P% 14.3%
PPP 0.09
PTS 9
J. Collins 83.3 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.14
PTS 12
D. Vassell 78.9 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.09
PTS 7
A. Bailey 73.0 poss
FG% 55.6%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.23
PTS 17
C. Flagg 72.0 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.22
PTS 16
T. da Silva 71.6 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.13
PTS 9
J. Champagnie 67.2 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.15
PTS 10
S. Sharpe 63.0 poss
FG% 71.4%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.17
PTS 11
J. Randle 60.1 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.07
PTS 4

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

C. Johnson 86.2 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.06
PTS 5
J. Randle 73.4 poss
FG% 38.5%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.19
PTS 14
A. Bailey 59.5 poss
FG% 28.6%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.07
PTS 4
T. Murphy III 59.3 poss
FG% 55.6%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.25
PTS 15
J. Collins 58.6 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.15
PTS 9
D. Brooks 55.2 poss
FG% 46.2%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.25
PTS 14
K. Leonard 53.5 poss
FG% 53.8%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.3
PTS 16
B. Ingram 53.2 poss
FG% 42.9%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.15
PTS 8
M. Smart 50.7 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.08
PTS 4
S. Castle 50.6 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.3
PTS 15

SEASON STATS

83
Games
15.9
PPG
7.0
RPG
1.9
APG
0.7
SPG
0.9
BPG
44.5
FG%
36.4
3P%
77.4
FT%
35.6
MPG

GAME LOG

83 games played