POR

2025-26 Season

DENI AVDIJA

Portland Trail Blazers | Forward | 6-8
Deni Avdija
23.9 PPG
7.0 RPG
6.7 APG
33.1 MPG
+0.5 Impact

Avdija produces at an average rate for a 33-minute workload. 3.8 turnovers per game cost 7.4 points of value nightly.

NET IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
+0.5
Scoring +14.8
Points 23.9 PPG × +1.00 = +23.9
Missed 2PT 4.6/g × -0.78 = -3.6
Missed 3PT 4.1/g × -0.87 = -3.6
Missed FT 1.9/g × -1.00 = -1.9
Creation +5.7
Assists 6.7/g × +0.50 = +3.4
Off. Rebounds 1.8/g × +1.26 = +2.3
Turnovers -7.4
Turnovers 3.8/g × -1.95 = -7.4
Defense +2.0
Steals 0.8/g × +2.30 = +1.8
Blocks 0.6/g × +0.90 = +0.5
Def. Rebounds 5.2/g × +0.30 = +1.6
Fouls Committed 2.5/g × -0.75 = -1.9
Hustle & Effort +2.5
Contested Shots 4.2/g × +0.20 = +0.8
Deflections 1.5/g × +0.65 = +1.0
Loose Balls 0.6/g × +0.60 = +0.4
Off. Fouls Drawn 0.1/g uncredited × +2.70 = +0.3
Raw Impact +17.6
Baseline (game-average expected) −17.1
Net Impact
+0.5
56th pctl vs Forwards

About this model: Net Impact can't measure floor spacing, help defense rotations, or playmaking gravity — so wings and guards are slightly undervalued vs bigs. How Net Impact works

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 227 Forwards with 10+ games

Scoring 96th
24.3 PPG
Efficiency 70th
59.5% TS
Playmaking 98th
6.8 APG
Rebounding 91th
7.1 RPG
Rim Protection 27th
0.11/min
Hustle 12th
0.07/min
Shot Creation 50th
0% pullup
TO Discipline 0th
0.12/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

Deni Avdija’s opening twenty games were defined by a maddening duality, where explosive scoring binges routinely masked catastrophic lapses in judgment. He constantly filled up the stat sheet, but those raw point totals often carried severe hidden costs. During the 10/31 vs DEN matchup, his 23 points were entirely negated by a brutal defensive performance where he repeatedly lost his man on backdoor cuts, dragging his impact score down to -3.5. The exact same frustrating trend surfaced on 11/14 vs HOU. Despite pouring in 22 points, his overall impact plummeted to a disastrous -11.7 because costly live-ball turnovers constantly handed the opposition easy points. He becomes a genuinely dominant force when he leans into his peripheral skills instead of just hunting shots. Look at the 11/30 vs OKC game for the perfect blueprint. Even while going completely cold from beyond the arc, he posted a massive +16.6 impact score by absolutely dominating the defensive glass for 19 rebounds and using elite playmaking to orchestrate the offense.

Deni Avdija’s mid-season stretch was a volatile experiment in primary initiation, marked by wild swings between offensive dominance and self-destructive decision-making. The hidden costs of his expanded role were glaring on 12/29 vs DAL. Despite stuffing the stat sheet with 27 points and 11 assists, a brutal string of live-ball turnovers in traffic tanked his overall value to a dismal -7.1 impact score. Two nights later on 12/31 vs OKC, poor shot selection completely erased his relentless motor and elite defensive rotations, dragging him down to a -9.0 impact score. The lows were entirely self-inflicted. Yet, when he reined in the chaos and picked his spots, Avdija looked like an unstoppable force. He bullied defenders on 01/05 vs UTA, leveraging his size to create mismatches as a primary offensive engine. That disciplined, downhill approach yielded 33 points and a massive +15.5 impact score, revealing the terrifying ceiling of his jumbo playmaking.

This stretch was defined by a maddening tug-of-war between high-usage playmaking and catastrophic shooting inefficiency. Avdija frequently stuffed the stat sheet, but his erratic shot selection actively sabotaged his overall value. Look no further than 03/15 vs PHI. He tallied 25 points and 9 assists, yet generated a dismal -6.4 impact score because he relentlessly forced the issue from beyond the arc. The same hidden costs ruined his outing during 02/20 vs DEN, where 13 assists were entirely negated by a -12.0 impact score driven by his complete inability to space the floor. When he stopped settling, the results flipped entirely. During 02/09 vs PHI, Avdija posted a dominant +15.0 impact score by leaning on elite playmaking from the forward position and aggressive downhill attacks rather than perimeter chucking. Until he exorcises these bad shooting habits, his actual on-court value will remain wildly unpredictable.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Boom-or-bust player. Avdija's impact swings wildly relative to his average — some nights dominant, others invisible. Scoring varies by ~7 points per game.

Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 52% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.

Defensive difference-maker. Avdija consistently forces tough shots and protects the rim — opponents shoot worse when he's guarding them.

Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 5 games. Longest cold streak: 7 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY

Based on 77 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

J. McDaniels 91.7 poss
FG% 37.5%
3P% 14.3%
PPP 0.29
PTS 27
N. Marshall 83.4 poss
FG% 42.9%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.2
PTS 17
L. Dort 80.5 poss
FG% 37.5%
3P% 12.5%
PPP 0.25
PTS 20
A. Thompson 68.9 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.2
PTS 14
C. Braun 65.4 poss
FG% 55.6%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.21
PTS 14
P. Washington 63.5 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.19
PTS 12
O. Anunoby 60.7 poss
FG% 30.8%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.2
PTS 12
K. Murray 58.8 poss
FG% 62.5%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.26
PTS 15
A. Thompson 58.1 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.36
PTS 21
J. Butler III 49.7 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 20.0%
PPP 0.18
PTS 9

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

P. Washington 78.5 poss
FG% 55.6%
3P% 60.0%
PPP 0.17
PTS 13
J. McDaniels 77.1 poss
FG% 30.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.1
PTS 8
S. Bey 71.2 poss
FG% 43.8%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.28
PTS 20
L. Dort 69.5 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 40.0%
PPP 0.09
PTS 6
O. Anunoby 57.0 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.12
PTS 7
C. Johnson 54.7 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.27
PTS 15
R. Hachimura 47.9 poss
FG% 37.5%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.15
PTS 7
N. Marshall 47.7 poss
FG% 55.6%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.27
PTS 13
K. Murray 42.9 poss
FG% 71.4%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.23
PTS 10
H. Barnes 42.1 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.21
PTS 9

SEASON STATS

62
Games
23.9
PPG
7.0
RPG
6.7
APG
0.8
SPG
0.6
BPG
45.8
FG%
31.7
3P%
79.9
FT%
33.1
MPG

GAME LOG

62 games played