POR

2025-26 Season

DENI AVDIJA

Portland Trail Blazers | Forward | 6-8
Deni Avdija
24.3PPG
6.8RPG
6.6APG
33.5MPG
+10.6 Impact

Avdija produces at an elite rate for a 34-minute workload.

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IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
+10.6
Scoring +21.4
Points Scored 24.3 PPG = +24.3
Missed Shots difficulty-adjusted = -7.2
Shot Making above expected FG% = +4.3
Creation +3.0
Assists & Self-Creation 6.6 AST/g + self-creation = +3.0
Turnovers -9.3
Turnovers 3.8/g (live + dead blend) = -9.3
Defense -0.7
Steals 0.7/g = +1.6
Blocks 0.6/g = +0.5
Fouls + context committed fouls, matchup adj = -2.8
Hustle & Effort +5.5
Rebounds 6.8 RPG (OREB + DREB) = +3.6
Contested Shots 3.6/g = +0.7
Deflections 1.3/g = +0.9
Charges Drawn 0.0/g = +0.0
Loose Balls 0.5/g = +0.3
Screen Assists 0.1/g = +0.0
Raw Impact +19.9
Baseline (game-average expected) −9.3
Net Impact
+10.6
89th pctl vs Forwards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 235 Forwards with 10+ games

Scoring 97th
24.6 PPG
Efficiency 67th
58.9% TS
Playmaking 98th
6.7 APG
Rebounding 89th
6.9 RPG
Defense 32th
+6.0/g
Hustle 90th
+18.3/g
Creation 99th
+6.10/g
Shot Making 91th
+9.28/g
TO Discipline 0th
0.11/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

Deni Avdija spent the first quarter of the 2025-26 season transforming into a monstrous, high-usage offensive hub. He completely dictated the pace of games, though his extreme volume occasionally led to volatile results. When his decision-making was sharp, he was virtually unstoppable, as seen on 11/20 vs CHI when he dropped 32 points, 11 rebounds, and 11 assists for a massive +30.7 Impact. He dominated that matchup through pristine shot selection and relentless hustle on the glass. Conversely, heavy counting stats didn't always translate to winning basketball. During his 11/15 vs HOU outing, he logged 22 points and 10 rebounds but managed a meager +0.6 Impact, weighed down by the hidden costs of sloppy turnovers and lazy defensive rotations. When his jumper completely abandoned him on 11/24 vs OKC, his tunnel vision resulted in a dismal 4-for-16 shooting night with just a single assist and a -3.3 Impact.

This mid-season stretch marked Deni Avdija's radical evolution from a connective wing into a high-usage offensive hub. He ruthlessly hunted mismatches on 01/08 vs HOU, erupting for 41 points on 13-of-24 shooting to generate a massive +26.5 Impact score purely through sheer scoring gravity. However, that expanded green light occasionally carried hidden costs when his jumper abandoned him. During the 01/01 vs OKC matchup, his 17 points required 14 shots, resulting in a -3.0 Impact score as poor shot selection and offensive stagnation dragged down his overall value. Yet, when he balanced his scoring aggression with elite playmaking, the results were devastating for opposing defenses. Look at his masterclass on 01/03 vs NOP, where he paired 34 points with 11 assists to post a stellar +30.0 Impact score. He is no longer just a complementary piece; he is commanding the floor with an audacious, albeit occasionally erratic, swagger.

Deni Avdija’s late-season stretch morphed from a frustrating, inefficient grind into a full-blown offensive eruption. Look at his early 02/20 vs DEN performance, where a double-double of 15 points and 13 assists looked great on paper, but a disastrous -10.4 Impact score revealed the hidden costs of defensive lapses and sloppy turnovers. Eventually, he learned to manufacture value even when his jumper abandoned him. During the 03/08 vs IND matchup, Avdija tallied a modest 18 points on a rough 6-for-16 from the floor, yet still posted a +13.3 Impact because of his relentless hustle on the glass and suffocating perimeter defense. By April, the game simply slowed down for him. He peaked in the 04/14 vs PHX finale, torching the nets for 41 points and 12 assists on brilliant 15-of-22 shooting. That masterpiece earned a staggering +25.0 Impact, driven by flawless shot selection and pinpoint playmaking that completely dismantled the defense.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Very consistent. Avdija posts positive impact in 90% of games — you almost always get a productive night. Scoring varies by ~7 points, but the overall contribution stays positive.

Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 55% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.

Good defender on his best nights, but it comes and goes. Some games Avdija locks in defensively, others he gets picked apart.

Small downward trend. First-half impact: +11.8, second-half: +9.3. Not alarming yet, but trending the wrong direction.

Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 16 games. Longest cold streak: 2 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 46 days ago

Based on 77 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

J. McDaniels 91.7 poss
FG% 37.5%
3P% 14.3%
PPP 0.29
PTS 27
N. Marshall 83.4 poss
FG% 42.9%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.2
PTS 17
L. Dort 80.5 poss
FG% 37.5%
3P% 12.5%
PPP 0.25
PTS 20
A. Thompson 68.9 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.2
PTS 14
C. Braun 65.4 poss
FG% 55.6%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.21
PTS 14
P. Washington 63.5 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.19
PTS 12
O. Anunoby 60.7 poss
FG% 30.8%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.2
PTS 12
K. Murray 58.8 poss
FG% 62.5%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.26
PTS 15
A. Thompson 58.1 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.36
PTS 21
J. Butler III 49.7 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 20.0%
PPP 0.18
PTS 9

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

P. Washington 78.5 poss
FG% 55.6%
3P% 60.0%
PPP 0.17
PTS 13
J. McDaniels 77.1 poss
FG% 30.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.1
PTS 8
S. Bey 71.2 poss
FG% 43.8%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.28
PTS 20
L. Dort 69.5 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 40.0%
PPP 0.09
PTS 6
O. Anunoby 57.0 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.12
PTS 7
C. Johnson 54.7 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.27
PTS 15
R. Hachimura 47.9 poss
FG% 37.5%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.15
PTS 7
N. Marshall 47.7 poss
FG% 55.6%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.27
PTS 13
K. Murray 42.9 poss
FG% 71.4%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.23
PTS 10
H. Barnes 42.1 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.21
PTS 9

SEASON STATS

72
Games
24.3
PPG
6.8
RPG
6.6
APG
0.7
SPG
0.6
BPG
46.6
FG%
32.1
3P%
79.3
FT%
33.5
MPG

GAME LOG

72 games played