DEN

2025-26 Season

PEYTON WATSON

Denver Nuggets | Guard | 6-8
Peyton Watson
14.6PPG
4.9RPG
2.1APG
29.6MPG
+2.6 Impact

Watson produces at an above average rate for a 30-minute workload.

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IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
+2.6
Scoring +12.8
Points Scored 14.6 PPG = +14.6
Missed Shots difficulty-adjusted = -4.6
Shot Making above expected FG% = +2.8
Creation +1.3
Assists & Self-Creation 2.1 AST/g + self-creation = +1.3
Turnovers -4.1
Turnovers 1.7/g (live + dead blend) = -4.1
Defense +0.2
Steals 0.9/g = +2.1
Blocks 1.1/g = +1.0
Fouls + context committed fouls, matchup adj = -2.9
Hustle & Effort +3.6
Rebounds 4.9 RPG (OREB + DREB) = +0.6
Contested Shots 6.1/g = +1.2
Deflections 1.5/g = +1.0
Charges Drawn 0.1/g = +0.2
Loose Balls 0.7/g = +0.4
Screen Assists 0.6/g = +0.2
Raw Impact +13.8
Baseline (game-average expected) −11.2
Net Impact
+2.6
71st pctl vs Guards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 246 Guards with 10+ games

Scoring 76th
14.6 PPG
Efficiency 85th
59.2% TS
Playmaking 35th
2.1 APG
Rebounding 88th
4.9 RPG
Defense 34th
+5.7/g
Hustle 85th
+13.3/g
Creation 60th
+3.11/g
Shot Making 72th
+7.99/g
TO Discipline 46th
0.06/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

Peyton Watson’s first eighteen games of the season were defined by a stark transition from an erratic bench piece to an explosive, if occasionally flawed, starter. Early on, he found ways to contribute without scoring, posting a +5.7 Impact score on 10/30 vs NOP by leaning on flawless shot selection, steady rebounding, and five assists to outweigh a meager five-point total. A promotion to the starting unit eventually unlocked his aggression. He absolutely erupted on 11/20 vs NOP, dropping 32 points and 12 rebounds on blistering 13-of-19 shooting to generate a massive +26.3 Impact score. Yet, Watson's newfound scoring punch didn't always translate to winning basketball. During his 11/23 vs SAC performance, he tallied an efficient 15 points and seven boards but still finished with a -0.5 Impact score. That negative mark reveals the hidden costs of his game, as poor defensive rotations and a lack of playmaking entirely negated his shooting. He is finally flashing star power, but ironing out those invisible mistakes remains his biggest hurdle.

Peyton Watson's midseason stretch was defined by a wild metamorphosis from a timid offensive ghost into a brazen, high-volume gunner. The absolute bottom fell out on 12/24 vs DAL, where he posted a disastrous -21.8 Impact score by completely vanishing from the offense and failing to hit a single field goal. The calendar flipped to January, and suddenly Watson started hunting his own shot. However, his newfound aggression initially dragged the offense down. Look at the 01/03 vs CLE matchup, where he racked up 21 points but still registered a -1.1 Impact score. That negative mark exposes the hidden cost of his empty calories; he hijacked possessions and bricked his way to a 9-for-22 shooting night. He finally married volume with lethal efficiency on 01/08 vs BOS. Torching the perimeter for 30 points on a blistering 10-for-15 from the floor, Watson earned a massive +17.7 Impact score by letting the game come to him.

This midseason stretch was defined by soaring two-way peaks that abruptly gave way to a diminished bench role. When his jumper was falling, Watson looked utterly untouchable. He posted a staggering +39.3 Impact score on 01/23 vs WAS, pouring in 35 points on 6-of-8 shooting from deep while suffocating his matchups on the perimeter. Yet that rhythm could vanish in an instant due to erratic shot selection. Just five days later on 01/28 vs DET, he hijacked the offense with heavily contested looks during a 6-for-20 shooting night, earning a brutal -15.2 Impact score. He occasionally found ways to salvage his minutes through sheer grit when his touch abandoned him. During the 02/03 vs DET matchup, Watson scored a modest 17 points on a clunky 4-of-11 from the floor, but still scraped together a +3.2 Impact score by generating crucial defensive stops and outworking opponents for loose balls. Ultimately, his volatile offensive execution forced a late-season demotion to the second unit.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Boom-or-bust player. Watson's impact swings wildly relative to his average — some nights dominant, others invisible. Scoring varies by ~9 points per game.

Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 67% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.

Defensive difference-maker. Watson consistently forces tough shots and protects the rim — opponents shoot worse when he's guarding them.

Getting better as the season goes on. First-half impact: +0.3, second-half: +4.9. That's a significant jump — could be a role change, confidence, or development clicking.

Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 6 games. Longest cold streak: 4 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 46 days ago

Based on 55 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

C. Flagg 61.5 poss
FG% 75.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.1
PTS 6
C. Cunningham 59.0 poss
FG% 12.5%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.08
PTS 5
A. Edwards 58.7 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.1
PTS 6
P. Siakam 48.9 poss
FG% 36.4%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.2
PTS 10
K. George 45.5 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.33
PTS 15
D. DeRozan 42.8 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
R. Westbrook 41.5 poss
FG% 37.5%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.14
PTS 6
T. Murphy III 41.5 poss
FG% 57.1%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.31
PTS 13
K. Durant 38.8 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.18
PTS 7
S. Bey 37.5 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.11
PTS 4

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

A. Edwards 91.1 poss
FG% 55.6%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.43
PTS 39
C. Cunningham 60.8 poss
FG% 54.5%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.25
PTS 15
P. Siakam 59.3 poss
FG% 36.4%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.22
PTS 13
D. DeRozan 56.9 poss
FG% 54.5%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.3
PTS 17
T. Murphy III 54.7 poss
FG% 46.2%
3P% 37.5%
PPP 0.31
PTS 17
K. George 52.8 poss
FG% 41.7%
3P% 40.0%
PPP 0.3
PTS 16
K. Durant 51.9 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.17
PTS 9
J. Johnson 44.5 poss
FG% 62.5%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.25
PTS 11
C. Flagg 43.8 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.32
PTS 14
M. Porter Jr. 40.7 poss
FG% 30.8%
3P% 40.0%
PPP 0.27
PTS 11

SEASON STATS

54
Games
14.6
PPG
4.9
RPG
2.1
APG
0.9
SPG
1.1
BPG
49.1
FG%
41.1
3P%
73.0
FT%
29.6
MPG

GAME LOG

54 games played