DEN

2025-26 Season

JONAS VALANČIŪNAS

Denver Nuggets | Center | 6-11
Jonas Valančiūnas
8.4PPG
4.9RPG
1.1APG
13.0MPG
-3.3 Impact

Valančiūnas produces at an below average rate for a 13-minute workload. Defensive impact (-1.1/game) is a concern.

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IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
-3.3
Scoring +7.9
Points Scored 8.4 PPG = +8.4
Missed Shots difficulty-adjusted = -2.0
Shot Making above expected FG% = +1.5
Creation +0.5
Assists & Self-Creation 1.1 AST/g + self-creation = +0.5
Turnovers -2.9
Turnovers 1.1/g (live + dead blend) = -2.9
Defense -1.1
Steals 0.2/g = +0.5
Blocks 0.6/g = +0.5
Fouls + context committed fouls, matchup adj = -2.1
Hustle & Effort +4.6
Rebounds 4.9 RPG (OREB + DREB) = +3.4
Contested Shots 3.2/g = +0.6
Deflections 0.2/g = +0.1
Charges Drawn 0.0/g = +0.0
Loose Balls 0.2/g = +0.1
Screen Assists 1.2/g = +0.4
Raw Impact +9.0
Baseline (game-average expected) −12.3
Net Impact
-3.3
23th pctl vs Centers

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 93 Centers with 10+ games

Scoring 48th
8.9 PPG
Efficiency 77th
64.2% TS
Playmaking 37th
1.2 APG
Rebounding 36th
5.2 RPG
Defense 10th
+2.9/g
Hustle 72th
+20.6/g
Creation 24th
+1.78/g
Shot Making 49th
+4.41/g
TO Discipline 15th
0.08/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

Jonas Valančiūnas spent the first quarter of the season wrestling with the harsh reality of a marginalized backup role, bleeding value during brief, ineffective stints off the bench. He occasionally flashed his old bruising efficiency, erupting for 16 points and six rebounds while hitting a pair of threes during 11/08 vs GSW. That offensive burst and rare perimeter spacing directly fueled a massive +14.5 impact score, serving as a bright spot where his physical presence actually dictated the game. However, his lack of mobility routinely destroyed second-unit lineups, perfectly captured by his outing on 11/01 vs POR. Despite scoring 10 points in just 11 minutes, he posted a miserable -8.7 impact because his heavy feet gave away far more points on the defensive end than he generated in the paint. The bottom completely fell out during 11/18 vs CHI. A disastrous four-minute cameo yielded just two points and a catastrophic -16.5 impact. When a veteran center cannot survive in space, even his most efficient post touches become empty calories.

Valančiūnas spent this midseason stretch oscillating between an ineffective bench piece and a surprisingly dominant spot starter. Despite pouring in 13 points in just 13 minutes on 02/01 vs OKC, his -2.3 impact revealed the hidden costs of his empty-calorie scoring. His sluggish pick-and-roll defense and poor rim protection essentially handed those points right back to the opposition. However, a brief January promotion to the starting five completely flipped his utility. On 01/28 vs DET, he bullied the frontcourt for 16 points and 16 rebounds in 31 minutes, generating a massive +13.4 impact by dominating the glass and securing crucial extra possessions. Once relegated back to the second unit, the veteran quickly turned into a massive liability again. Look no further than 02/04 vs NYK, where his staggering -19.4 impact score on just 2 points laid bare a harsh reality: when he isn't commanding touches, his slow-footed defense makes him virtually unplayable.

Jonas Valančiūnas spent the bulk of this late-season stretch marooned at the end of the rotation, struggling to find rhythm in microscopic, low-leverage stints. His absolute nadir arrived on 03/14 vs LAL, where he posted a disastrous -16.4 impact score in just three minutes of floor time. Bleeding that much value in such a brief window requires a brutal combination of blown defensive assignments and empty offensive possessions. Even when his scoring touch returned, the underlying metrics often rejected his contributions, as seen on 04/08 vs MEM. Despite pouring in 14 points on flawless 6-for-6 shooting in that contest, he still managed a negative -1.0 impact score because his complete lack of playmaking and heavy-footed rim protection surrendered whatever value his finishing created. Yet, when suddenly thrust into the starting lineup on 04/10 vs OKC, the veteran big man unleashed a spectacular throwback performance. He racked up 23 points, 17 rebounds, and four assists in 32 minutes, generating a massive +24.4 impact score by bullying smaller defenders, cleaning the glass relentlessly, and punishing double teams with sharp passing.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Inconsistent. Valančiūnas has clear good-night/bad-night splits, with scoring swinging ~5 points between games. You're never quite sure which version shows up.

Reliable shooter — hits 45%+ from the field in 80% of games. You can count on efficient nights more often than not.

Average defender. Valančiūnas doesn't hurt you defensively, but he's not making opponents uncomfortable either.

In a rough stretch — 4 straight games with negative impact. Longest cold streak this season: 7 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 46 days ago

Based on 63 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

R. Gobert 53.6 poss
FG% 12.5%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.09
PTS 5
J. Duren 48.0 poss
FG% 71.4%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.23
PTS 11
M. Raynaud 39.8 poss
FG% 87.5%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.35
PTS 14
A. Sarr 35.7 poss
FG% 44.4%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.22
PTS 8
I. Stewart 31.8 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.28
PTS 9
S. Adams 31.7 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.25
PTS 8
J. Williams 31.6 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.35
PTS 11
B. Lopez 28.5 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.21
PTS 6
D. Eubanks 27.6 poss
FG% 37.5%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.22
PTS 6
K. Ware 26.8 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.3
PTS 8

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

R. Gobert 53.2 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.08
PTS 4
S. Adams 43.9 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.07
PTS 3
M. Raynaud 34.3 poss
FG% 55.6%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.32
PTS 11
I. Stewart 30.4 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.2
PTS 6
J. Duren 30.3 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.26
PTS 8
A. Sarr 29.1 poss
FG% 28.6%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.21
PTS 6
D. Sabonis 25.1 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.08
PTS 2
D. Eubanks 24.8 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.24
PTS 6
B. Lopez 24.1 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
J. Nurkić 23.8 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.46
PTS 11

SEASON STATS

69
Games
8.4
PPG
4.9
RPG
1.1
APG
0.2
SPG
0.6
BPG
58.4
FG%
30.8
3P%
76.8
FT%
13.0
MPG

GAME LOG

69 games played