DEN

2025-26 Season

SPENCER JONES

Denver Nuggets | Forward | 6-7
Spencer Jones
5.6PPG
3.2RPG
0.8APG
22.3MPG
-5.2 Impact

Jones produces at an poor rate for a 22-minute workload.

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IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
-5.2
Scoring +5.1
Points Scored 5.6 PPG = +5.6
Missed Shots difficulty-adjusted = -1.8
Shot Making above expected FG% = +1.3
Creation +0.3
Assists & Self-Creation 0.8 AST/g + self-creation = +0.3
Turnovers -1.3
Turnovers 0.5/g (live + dead blend) = -1.3
Defense -0.7
Steals 0.8/g = +1.8
Blocks 0.5/g = +0.5
Fouls + context committed fouls, matchup adj = -3.0
Hustle & Effort +2.9
Rebounds 3.2 RPG (OREB + DREB) = +0.3
Contested Shots 4.0/g = +0.8
Deflections 1.8/g = +1.2
Charges Drawn 0.1/g = +0.2
Loose Balls 0.4/g = +0.2
Screen Assists 0.8/g = +0.2
Raw Impact +6.3
Baseline (game-average expected) −11.5
Net Impact
-5.2
14th pctl vs Forwards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 235 Forwards with 10+ games

Scoring 24th
5.9 PPG
Efficiency 57th
57.2% TS
Playmaking 13th
0.8 APG
Rebounding 32th
3.3 RPG
Defense 28th
+5.4/g
Hustle 38th
+10.8/g
Creation 24th
+1.71/g
Shot Making 51th
+5.88/g
TO Discipline 96th
0.02/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

Spencer Jones’s first 22 games were defined by a sudden promotion to the starting lineup that yielded a fleeting two-game supernova before reality set back in. He spent the first month mostly stapled to the bench. His initial foray as a starter on 11/23 vs SAC was an outright disaster, posting a dismal -17.1 Impact score because he missed both of his field goal attempts and failed to generate any playmaking. Yet, out of nowhere, he caught fire on 12/02 vs DAL. He poured in 28 points on blistering 11-of-15 shooting, earning a massive +18.6 Impact score driven entirely by elite shot-making and lethal perimeter execution. The magic evaporated immediately on 12/04 vs IND, where he managed just a single point. His brutal -14.0 Impact score in that contest reflected a complete offensive disappearance, revealing the harsh reality of a wing who drags the team down when his jumper stops falling.

Spencer Jones spent this midseason stretch trapped in a brutal offensive slump that tested the limits of his coaching staff's patience. He offered a fleeting glimpse of his ideal role on 12/30 vs MIA, draining all five of his three-point attempts to rack up 16 points and a stellar +15.0 impact score. Perfect perimeter shooting completely opens up the floor for his teammates. Those nights were painfully rare. Far more common were disastrous outings like his 01/12 vs MIL appearance, where he clanked his way to 5 points on an abysmal 1-for-7 from deep. That reckless shot selection killed possessions and saddled him with a dismal -13.5 impact score. Even when he managed to score decently, as he did with 12 points in 41 minutes on 12/26 vs MIN, empty-calorie production and hidden defensive lapses still dragged him down to a -1.2 impact score. If he cannot stop bleeding value on his cold nights, his grip on a starting job will completely evaporate.

Spencer Jones spent this midseason stretch trapped in rotational purgatory, bouncing between the starting lineup and the end of the bench while struggling to find any rhythm. When given a real leash, he occasionally rewarded his coaching staff. During a spot start on 03/12 vs SAS, he poured in 19 points on 8-of-13 shooting to generate a massive +14.1 impact score. He also found ways to create value without dominating the ball, logging a +4.3 impact mark on 02/25 vs BOS despite scoring just six points because he relentlessly crashed the glass for seven rebounds and contested shots on the perimeter. Unfortunately, those bright spots were heavily overshadowed by brutal, empty-calorie shifts that crippled his team. Look no further than 03/25 vs DAL, where he wandered through 20 minutes of action to produce just four points and two rebounds, resulting in a disastrous -14.5 impact score. His passive shot selection and defensive lapses during these duds meant he was constantly bleeding value on the floor. Until Jones learns to leverage his sporadic hustle into reliable nightly production, he will remain a wildly unpredictable gamble.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Struggling. Jones has posted negative impact in 81% of games this season. The production rarely outweighs the cost.

Reliable shooter — hits 45%+ from the field in 73% of games. You can count on efficient nights more often than not.

Average defender. Jones doesn't hurt you defensively, but he's not making opponents uncomfortable either.

Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 2 games. Longest cold streak: 14 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 46 days ago

Based on 68 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

K. Durant 73.6 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 40.0%
PPP 0.11
PTS 8
C. Flagg 55.6 poss
FG% 85.7%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.23
PTS 13
P. Banchero 51.8 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.15
PTS 8
J. Smith Jr. 48.4 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.08
PTS 4
K. Middleton 44.8 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.07
PTS 3
R. Nembhard 44.7 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.16
PTS 7
M. Bridges 39.9 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.05
PTS 2
M. Porter Jr. 37.2 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
N. Reid 36.0 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.06
PTS 2
J. Harden 35.4 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.2
PTS 7

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

K. Durant 75.1 poss
FG% 70.0%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.28
PTS 21
C. Flagg 63.4 poss
FG% 58.8%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.35
PTS 22
K. Leonard 46.6 poss
FG% 61.5%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.41
PTS 19
P. Banchero 41.8 poss
FG% 55.6%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.38
PTS 16
J. Randle 41.3 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.17
PTS 7
A. Sengun 39.4 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.2
PTS 8
R. Sheppard 34.3 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.23
PTS 8
J. Embiid 33.2 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.15
PTS 5
R. Nembhard 31.3 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.13
PTS 4
N. Marshall 29.4 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.27
PTS 8

SEASON STATS

70
Games
5.6
PPG
3.2
RPG
0.8
APG
0.8
SPG
0.5
BPG
51.6
FG%
42.0
3P%
62.5
FT%
22.3
MPG

GAME LOG

70 games played