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ORL

2025-26 Season

PAOLO BANCHERO

Orlando Magic | Forward | 6-10
Paolo Banchero
22.5PPG
8.4RPG
5.3APG
35.1MPG
+11.2 Impact

Banchero produces at an elite rate for a 35-minute workload.

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IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
+11.2
Scoring +18.9
Points Scored 22.5 PPG = +22.5
Missed Shots difficulty-adjusted = -7.5
Shot Making above expected FG% = +3.9
Creation +2.2
Assists & Self-Creation 5.3 AST/g + self-creation = +2.2
Turnovers -7.4
Turnovers 3.1/g (live + dead blend) = -7.4
Defense +0.1
Steals 0.8/g = +1.8
Blocks 0.6/g = +0.5
Fouls + context committed fouls, matchup adj = -2.2
Hustle & Effort +6.4
Rebounds 8.4 RPG (OREB + DREB) = +4.3
Contested Shots 5.2/g = +1.0
Deflections 1.0/g = +0.6
Charges Drawn 0.0/g = +0.0
Loose Balls 0.4/g = +0.3
Screen Assists 0.8/g = +0.2
Raw Impact +20.2
Baseline (game-average expected) −9.0
Net Impact
+11.2
90th pctl vs Forwards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 235 Forwards with 10+ games

Scoring 95th
22.5 PPG
Efficiency 37th
54.8% TS
Playmaking 95th
5.3 APG
Rebounding 95th
8.4 RPG
Defense 56th
+7.6/g
Hustle 90th
+18.4/g
Creation 83th
+3.95/g
Shot Making 97th
+11.20/g
TO Discipline 5th
0.09/min

ON / OFF COURT

ORL performance per 100 possessions with Banchero on vs off the floor · 3,807 poss on, 2,417 off

Team net — ON court
-2.1
ORtg 88.5 · DRtg 90.6
Team net — OFF court
-6.2
ORtg 85.4 · DRtg 91.7
On/Off swing
+4.1
Points per 100 possessions the team gains (or loses) when he plays

THE SEASON SO FAR

Paolo Banchero’s first 25 games were defined by a massive leap in his playmaking and rebounding, transforming him from a volume scorer into a true offensive hub. He finally learned how to tilt games even when his jumper abandoned him. Look at the 11/08 vs BOS matchup. Despite managing just 15 points on four made field goals, he still posted a +9.6 Impact by locking in defensively and fighting for nine crucial rebounds. Conversely, when he settled for bad looks, his value plummeted. During the 10/24 vs ATL game, he forced up 15 shots to score just 11 points, resulting in a brutal -12.7 Impact driven by poor shot selection and stalled offensive flow. When he actually balanced scoring with orchestration, he was an absolute nightmare for opposing defenses. In the 12/30 vs TOR matchup, his elite court vision and relentless effort on the glass yielded 23 points, 15 rebounds, and 10 assists, generating a massive +27.5 Impact score.

This mid-season stretch was defined by Paolo Banchero evolving from a pure volume scorer into a relentless, two-way battering ram. He reached a terrifying peak on 01/15 vs MEM, racking up 26 points and 13 rebounds to generate a staggering +37.6 Impact score. That massive figure wasn't just about his efficient 9-of-16 shooting; it was driven by suffocating defensive effort and constant hustle on the glass that completely disrupted the Grizzlies. Even when his shot abandoned him, Banchero found ways to control the game. During his 02/26 vs HOU outing, he managed only 19 points on a mediocre 6-of-16 from the floor, yet still posted a robust +16.1 Impact score. He salvaged his value in that matchup by acting as a brilliant offensive hub with 9 assists while competing hard on the defensive end to make up for the missed shots. Conversely, when he settled for contested jumpers without putting in the dirty work—as he did on 01/10 vs PHI—his inefficient 6-for-18 shooting dragged him down to a poor -3.7 Impact score. Banchero is learning that his true superstar value lies in physical dominance and playmaking, not just pure isolation scoring.

Banchero spent the final months of the season oscillating between unstoppable offensive juggernaut and erratic volume shooter. When his jumper fell, he was utterly terrifying, as seen on 03/08 vs MIL when he torched the defense for 33 points on blistering 12-of-16 shooting to earn a massive +25.8 Impact score. Yet even when his shot abandoned him, he frequently found ways to tilt the floor. During a rough 4-for-14 shooting night on 03/21 vs LAL, he still managed a +7.2 Impact score by leaning into his playmaking with six assists and grinding out defensive stops. The hustle couldn't save him on 03/29 vs TOR, however. Forcing bad looks and bricking all five of his three-point attempts, he scraped together just nine points, resulting in a brutal -13.9 Impact score as his inefficient chucking dragged the team down. He remains a brilliant focal point, but dialing back the forced shots on cold nights is his next necessary hurdle.

The final 20 games of Paolo Banchero's season were a study in staggering volatility, where his All-Star talent and frustrating tendencies battled for control on a nightly basis. He could be an unstoppable force, an offensive juggernaut who dropped 45 points on 17-of-31 shooting vs DET on April 29 by simply overwhelming defenders. Yet, this same player could completely vanish, as he did during a disastrous 9-point outing vs TOR on March 29, where abysmal 3-for-14 shooting cratered his impact to a team-killing -23.5. It wasn't always poor shooting that did him in; against PHI on April 15, his -20.2 impact was the direct result of what the log called "catastrophic ball security." But Banchero also found ways to contribute when his shot abandoned him. In the season's final game vs DET on May 01, he shot a miserable 4-for-20 from the field but still managed a positive impact (+0.2) by generating immense value through his defense (+9.3) and hustle (+4.2). This stretch was less a clean narrative of development and more a chaotic, compelling portrait of a star still learning how to consistently win the war against himself.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Very consistent. Banchero posts positive impact in 84% of games — you almost always get a productive night. Scoring varies by ~8 points, but the overall contribution stays positive.

Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 50% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.

Defensive difference-maker. Banchero consistently forces tough shots and protects the rim — opponents shoot worse when he's guarding them.

Hot right now — 8 straight games with positive impact. Longest positive run this season: 9 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 20 days ago

Based on 77 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

T. Harris 248.0 poss
FG% 40.8%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.22
PTS 54
M. Bridges 135.3 poss
FG% 48.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.27
PTS 37
S. Barnes 103.8 poss
FG% 35.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.17
PTS 18
J. Johnson 103.4 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.19
PTS 20
C. Cunningham 102.2 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 20.0%
PPP 0.45
PTS 46
P. Siakam 99.2 poss
FG% 40.9%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.22
PTS 22
A. Wiggins 83.2 poss
FG% 41.7%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.36
PTS 30
B. Adebayo 81.5 poss
FG% 43.8%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.23
PTS 19
B. Coulibaly 80.2 poss
FG% 41.7%
3P% 20.0%
PPP 0.19
PTS 15
J. Jackson Jr. 72.3 poss
FG% 47.1%
3P% 62.5%
PPP 0.3
PTS 22

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

T. Harris 234.2 poss
FG% 51.3%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.2
PTS 47
M. Bridges 121.8 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 38.5%
PPP 0.22
PTS 27
C. Cunningham 116.1 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 42.9%
PPP 0.42
PTS 49
J. Johnson 104.2 poss
FG% 42.9%
3P% 40.0%
PPP 0.17
PTS 18
P. Siakam 96.6 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 57.1%
PPP 0.28
PTS 27
S. Barnes 90.3 poss
FG% 41.7%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.16
PTS 14
A. Wiggins 79.5 poss
FG% 63.6%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.24
PTS 19
M. Turner 70.1 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.09
PTS 6
N. Clowney 66.0 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.06
PTS 4
J. Jaquez Jr. 65.6 poss
FG% 44.4%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.12
PTS 8

SEASON STATS

81
Games
22.5
PPG
8.4
RPG
5.3
APG
0.8
SPG
0.6
BPG
45.4
FG%
30.5
3P%
76.1
FT%
35.1
MPG

GAME LOG

81 games played