SAC

2025-26 Season

KEEGAN MURRAY

Sacramento Kings | Forward | 6-8
Keegan Murray
14.0PPG
5.7RPG
1.7APG
34.5MPG
+5.5 Impact

Murray produces at an elite rate for a 34-minute workload.

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IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
+5.5
Scoring +11.6
Points Scored 14.0 PPG = +14.0
Missed Shots difficulty-adjusted = -5.7
Shot Making above expected FG% = +3.3
Creation +0.7
Assists & Self-Creation 1.7 AST/g + self-creation = +0.7
Turnovers -2.6
Turnovers 1.2/g (live + dead blend) = -2.6
Defense +1.2
Steals 1.0/g = +2.3
Blocks 1.6/g = +1.4
Fouls + context committed fouls, matchup adj = -2.5
Hustle & Effort +5.7
Rebounds 5.7 RPG (OREB + DREB) = +2.2
Contested Shots 7.8/g = +1.6
Deflections 2.2/g = +1.4
Charges Drawn 0.0/g = +0.1
Loose Balls 0.5/g = +0.3
Screen Assists 0.3/g = +0.1
Raw Impact +16.6
Baseline (game-average expected) −11.1
Net Impact
+5.5
76th pctl vs Forwards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 235 Forwards with 10+ games

Scoring 75th
14.0 PPG
Efficiency 7th
47.6% TS
Playmaking 53th
1.7 APG
Rebounding 79th
5.7 RPG
Defense 97th
+13.0/g
Hustle 64th
+14.0/g
Creation 29th
+1.83/g
Shot Making 63th
+6.84/g
TO Discipline 81th
0.03/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

Keegan Murray's early 2025-26 campaign was defined by a swift, decisive leap from a shaky bench option into an indispensable two-way starter. After a sluggish reserve appearance to open the stretch, he caught fire on 11/25 vs MIN, pouring in 26 points and grabbing 14 rebounds to generate a massive +30.2 impact score. That dominant outing highlighted his evolution into a relentless glass-cleaner who pairs efficient shot selection with high-motor defensive effort. Even when his perimeter stroke completely vanished, as it did during an 0-for-4 night from deep on 12/01 vs MEM, Murray still posted a +13.6 impact by leaning heavily on his defensive rotations and sheer hustle. However, ugly offensive nights still carry hidden costs for his overall grade. This was brutally apparent on 12/04 vs HOU, where a dismal 2-for-11 shooting performance resulted in a -3.7 impact despite him pulling down 11 boards. Ultimately, this heavy-minutes stretch revealed a forward whose nightly value is no longer strictly tethered to his three-point percentage.

A grueling, wildly inconsistent shooting slump defined this stretch for Keegan Murray, forcing him to find alternative ways to survive on the floor. Take the 12/09 vs IND matchup, where his jumper was completely broken as he managed just 8 points on an ugly 3-of-11 from the field. He still scraped together a +0.1 Impact score in that contest, largely because he crashed the glass for 11 rebounds and relied on physical effort to offset his offensive woes. The perimeter struggles hit rock bottom during the 12/21 vs POR game. Murray clanked all six of his three-point attempts, earning a -2.7 Impact score as his poor shot selection and empty possessions actively stalled the offense. Yet, he flipped the script completely the very next night on 12/22 vs HOU. Playing an exhausting 47 minutes, he erupted for 26 points and logged a massive +19.1 Impact score because he finally dialed in his stroke, hitting 3-of-4 from deep and punishing the defense with highly efficient looks.

Maddening inconsistency and erratic shooting defined Keegan Murray's mid-season run. He hit his absolute peak on 01/03 vs PHX, pouring in 23 points and grabbing 9 rebounds to generate a massive +21.6 Impact score. That stellar rating stemmed from highly efficient 9-for-17 shot selection and aggressive rebounding that constantly extended possessions. However, his offensive rhythm completely vanished in earlier matchups like the 01/02 vs BOS game. Despite hustling for 6 rebounds and dishing 4 assists in 38 minutes, his miserable 3-for-13 shooting clip dragged his Impact down to -3.1 because those empty offensive trips actively killed the team's momentum. The rough patch culminated in a disastrous outing on 02/23 vs MEM, where a 2-for-10 shooting night yielded a brutal -7.9 Impact score. When his perimeter shot abandons him, Murray simply bleeds too much value on the floor.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Volatile for his role. Murray has noticeable ups and downs, with scoring moving ~7 points between games.

Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 48% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.

Defensive difference-maker. Murray consistently forces tough shots and protects the rim — opponents shoot worse when he's guarding them.

Performance has dropped off. First-half impact: +9.4, second-half: +2.0. Worth watching whether it's fatigue, injury, or opponents adjusting.

MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 46 days ago

Based on 32 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

D. Booker 57.9 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 20.0%
PPP 0.22
PTS 13
J. Smith Jr. 47.9 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.08
PTS 4
D. Avdija 42.9 poss
FG% 71.4%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.23
PTS 10
J. McDaniels 38.8 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
K. Durant 36.2 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.17
PTS 6
K. Murray 33.6 poss
FG% 28.6%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.15
PTS 5
C. Johnson 31.0 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.16
PTS 5
C. Spencer 30.1 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.07
PTS 2
D. DiVincenzo 29.9 poss
FG% 42.9%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.23
PTS 7
J. Murray 29.7 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.13
PTS 4

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

K. Durant 64.8 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.25
PTS 16
D. Avdija 58.8 poss
FG% 62.5%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.26
PTS 15
D. Booker 58.3 poss
FG% 37.5%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.15
PTS 9
J. Randle 52.4 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 75.0%
PPP 0.21
PTS 11
J. Murray 51.8 poss
FG% 55.6%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.21
PTS 11
L. Markkanen 45.8 poss
FG% 14.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.04
PTS 2
A. Thompson 35.8 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.11
PTS 4
T. Camara 35.7 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.17
PTS 6
N. Powell 31.3 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.22
PTS 7
J. Jackson Jr. 28.1 poss
FG% 80.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.32
PTS 9

SEASON STATS

23
Games
14.0
PPG
5.7
RPG
1.7
APG
1.0
SPG
1.6
BPG
42.0
FG%
27.7
3P%
77.6
FT%
34.5
MPG

GAME LOG

23 games played