CHI

2025-26 Season

COLLIN SEXTON

Chicago Bulls | Guard | 6-3
Collin Sexton
15.4PPG
2.3RPG
3.3APG
23.7MPG
+2.2 Impact

Sexton produces at an above average rate for a 24-minute workload.

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IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
+2.2
Scoring +14.2
Points Scored 15.4 PPG = +15.4
Missed Shots difficulty-adjusted = -4.4
Shot Making above expected FG% = +3.2
Creation +1.4
Assists & Self-Creation 3.3 AST/g + self-creation = +1.4
Turnovers -4.9
Turnovers 2.1/g (live + dead blend) = -4.9
Defense +1.1
Steals 1.1/g = +2.5
Blocks 0.1/g = +0.1
Fouls + context committed fouls, matchup adj = -1.5
Hustle & Effort +1.7
Rebounds 2.3 RPG (OREB + DREB) = -0.1
Contested Shots 2.1/g = +0.4
Deflections 1.6/g = +1.1
Charges Drawn 0.0/g = +0.0
Loose Balls 0.3/g = +0.2
Screen Assists 0.3/g = +0.1
Raw Impact +13.5
Baseline (game-average expected) −11.3
Net Impact
+2.2
70th pctl vs Guards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 246 Guards with 10+ games

Scoring 78th
15.4 PPG
Efficiency 93th
61.9% TS
Playmaking 61th
3.3 APG
Rebounding 28th
2.3 RPG
Defense 54th
+7.6/g
Hustle 68th
+10.5/g
Creation 65th
+3.28/g
Shot Making 70th
+7.89/g
TO Discipline 14th
0.09/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

Collin Sexton's early 2025-26 campaign was defined by a turbulent transition from an erratic starter to a highly effective microwave scorer off the bench. During an early start on 10/26 vs WAS, he poured in 20 points on a blistering 7-for-10 shooting clip, generating a massive +10.2 Impact score through relentless rim pressure and intense defensive effort. Yet, his limitations as a primary floor general became glaringly obvious just a week later. On 11/02 vs UTA, Sexton dished out 12 assists but posted a disastrous -10.8 Impact score, as forced shots and hidden costs like poor rotational defense completely negated his playmaking. The coaching staff eventually pulled the plug on the starting experiment, shifting him to a reserve role where his aggressive mentality thrived. Operating against second units, he caught fire on 11/29 vs CHI, dropping 21 points to earn a +10.4 Impact score fueled by decisive, high-percentage shot selection rather than over-dribbling. Stripped of traditional point guard duties, Sexton finally found his ideal rhythm by focusing purely on providing instant offensive voltage.

This stretch was defined by extreme volatility, with Collin Sexton toggling wildly between hyper-efficient flamethrower and momentum-killing chucker. When he dialed in his shot selection, the results were devastating. On 01/23 vs ORL, he posted a massive +14.6 Impact score by pouring in 19 points on a near-flawless 6-for-7 from the floor and a perfect 3-for-3 from deep. But the bad habits always seemed to resurface. Take the 02/07 vs DEN matchup, where he managed 17 points but dragged the second unit down to a -5.2 Impact mark. That negative value stemmed entirely from his erratic trigger, as he needed 14 shots to get his points and bricked four of his five attempts from beyond the arc. The floor completely fell out on 01/28 vs MEM, where a dreadful 2-for-10 shooting night resulted in a catastrophic -10.9 Impact score. He remains the ultimate wild card, capable of shooting his team into a game just as quickly as he shoots them right out of it.

This late-season stretch was defined by a violent shift from an actively harmful chucker to a highly adaptable offensive engine. Early on, his poor shot selection was a glaring liability, perfectly captured on 02/26 vs POR when he posted a brutal -14.1 Impact score by forcing up nine shots to score just 10 empty points. The turning point arrived on 03/05 vs PHX, where Sexton erupted for 30 points and five assists. He generated a massive +25.2 Impact score in that matchup through hyper-efficient 11-for-19 shooting and smart distribution. Yet his most fascinating evolution occurred when his jumper completely abandoned him on 04/07 vs WAS. Despite clanking his way to a highly inefficient 15 points on an abysmal 5-for-16 shooting night, Sexton still managed a strong +10.8 Impact score. Instead of compounding his shooting woes, he salvaged his value on the margins by crashing the glass for nine rebounds and dishing out seven assists. It was a refreshing sign of maturity from a guard who previously bled value whenever his primary weapon misfired.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Boom-or-bust player. Sexton's impact swings wildly relative to his average — some nights dominant, others invisible. Scoring varies by ~6 points per game.

Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 56% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.

Defensive difference-maker. Sexton consistently forces tough shots and protects the rim — opponents shoot worse when he's guarding them.

Getting better as the season goes on. First-half impact: +0.6, second-half: +3.7. That's a significant jump — could be a role change, confidence, or development clicking.

Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 10 games. Longest cold streak: 5 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 46 days ago

Based on 65 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

R. Rollins 58.9 poss
FG% 36.4%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.15
PTS 9
C. Wallace 49.4 poss
FG% 44.4%
3P% 40.0%
PPP 0.22
PTS 11
A. Mitchell 40.8 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.17
PTS 7
J. Shead 40.3 poss
FG% 57.1%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.2
PTS 8
I. Quickley 40.1 poss
FG% 57.1%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.25
PTS 10
G. Trent Jr. 36.2 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.28
PTS 10
J. Walter 34.4 poss
FG% 28.6%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.23
PTS 8
J. Alvarado 34.2 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.18
PTS 6
W. Clayton Jr. 32.2 poss
FG% 11.1%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.12
PTS 4
A. Green 29.0 poss
FG% 75.0%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.62
PTS 18

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

J. Shead 57.8 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.09
PTS 5
C. Wallace 45.3 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
T. Maxey 44.0 poss
FG% 16.7%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.18
PTS 8
R. Rollins 41.4 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.05
PTS 2
G. Trent Jr. 39.6 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
A. Green 39.3 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.15
PTS 6
I. Quickley 38.2 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.1
PTS 4
A. Mitchell 37.1 poss
FG% 80.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.24
PTS 9
J. Alvarado 36.8 poss
FG% 20.0%
3P% 20.0%
PPP 0.08
PTS 3
C. McCollum 36.0 poss
FG% 37.5%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.22
PTS 8

SEASON STATS

68
Games
15.4
PPG
2.3
RPG
3.3
APG
1.1
SPG
0.1
BPG
48.5
FG%
40.1
3P%
85.5
FT%
23.7
MPG

GAME LOG

68 games played