Bub Carrington’s first 28 games read like a tale of two entirely different rookies: a hesitant guard drowning in his minutes, followed by an aggressive starter finally finding his NBA legs. Early on, his offensive timidity was a glaring liability. He bottomed out in the 11/04 vs NYK matchup, posting a disastrous -22.5 Impact score after attempting just two shots and going scoreless in 25 minutes. He occasionally found ways to stay afloat without scoring, like in the 11/29 vs IND matchup where he scraped together a +1.0 Impact on just six points by crashing the glass for seven rebounds. But a mid-December promotion back to the starting five finally unlocked his true offensive ceiling. He exploded in the 12/13 vs CLE game, pouring in 27 points, eight assists, and six rebounds on 50 percent shooting from the floor to earn a stellar +7.6 Impact. The early growing pains were undeniably ugly, but Carrington is starting to look like a genuine building block.

Bub Carrington’s midseason stretch was defined by a rocky transition into the starting lineup, where increased minutes frequently exposed the hollow nature of his counting stats. Look no further than his 40-minute marathon on 01/08 vs PHI. He poured in 18 points and dished seven assists, yet his -9.2 Impact score reveals a guard who bled points defensively and stalled the offense with empty-calorie possessions. Ironically, Carrington was far more effective when he stopped forcing the issue. During a bench stint on 01/12 vs PHX, he managed just 9 points but generated a +2.0 Impact score by focusing on efficient distribution and relentless hustle plays. When his jumper completely abandoned him on 01/15 vs LAC, the results were disastrous. His 1-for-11 shooting night dragged him to a brutal -13.0 Impact score because he offered zero secondary value to offset the missed shots. Until he trims the fat from his shot selection, he will remain a net-negative masquerading as a productive starter.

Bub Carrington’s late-season run was defined by maddening inconsistency, swinging wildly between flamethrower scoring nights and stretches where he actively bled value on the floor. When his jumper caught fire, he was unstoppable. He torched the nets on 03/17 vs DET, pouring in 30 points on 12-of-16 shooting to generate a massive +21.5 impact score by simply outgunning the opposition. But raw point totals often masked his actual on-court value. Look at his 04/12 vs CLE outing; despite racking up 20 points and 9 assists, he posted a -1.0 impact score because of the hidden costs of poor shot selection—bricking 11 field goals—and killing offensive momentum with empty possessions. Conversely, he found ways to win on the margins during a 03/12 vs ORL matchup. He tallied a modest 12 points in that game, yet earned a +4.8 impact score because he dug in defensively, crashed the glass for 5 rebounds, and made the gritty hustle plays that actually contribute to winning. He clearly has the offensive tools, but Carrington desperately needs to figure out how to survive the nights when his shot isn't falling.