2025-26 Season
MARVIN BAGLEY III
2025-26 Season
MARVIN BAGLEY III
III produces at an above average rate for a 20-minute workload.
III produces at an above average rate for a 20-minute workload.
PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology
TEAM COMPARISON
of 17 teammates (10+ games, 10+ min)
Similar Players
Same position, closest production profile this season.
SKILL DNA
Percentile rank vs 235 Forwards with 10+ games
THE SEASON SO FAR
Marvin Bagley III's first twenty games were defined by a stark role change, transforming him from a marginal bench piece into a bruising, highly effective starter. Even before his promotion, he found ways to influence winning without filling the basket. On 11/04 vs NYK, he scored just six points but still posted a +2.8 Impact. That positive mark was driven entirely by his seven rebounds and gritty hustle plays in the paint. Once elevated to the starting lineup in late November, Bagley unlocked a new level of offensive volume. He bullied his way to 22 points and eight rebounds on 12/02 vs MIL, earning a stellar +14.0 Impact by converting 11 of his 16 field goal attempts and punishing defenders at the rim. He utterly dominated on 12/14 vs IND, logging 23 points and 14 rebounds. That masterclass yielded a massive +25.0 Impact because his elite shot selection and relentless work on the glass completely overwhelmed the opposition.
Marvin Bagley III spent the middle portion of the season reinventing himself as a gritty, glass-crashing bench enforcer rather than just an empty-calories scorer. Early in this stretch, his offensive production still masked underlying flaws. Look at his performance on 12/19 vs SAS, where he tallied 13 points and 5 assists on nearly perfect 5/6 shooting, yet posted a -0.9 impact because defensive bleeding gave right back the points he created. He quickly adjusted his approach to affect winning without needing a heavy diet of shots. During the 12/30 vs PHX matchup, Bagley managed only 7 points on 2/5 shooting but recorded a +4.2 impact by aggressively securing 7 rebounds and doing the dirty work inside. When he finally combined that relentless rebounding with his natural scoring touch, the results were dominant. He bullied his way to 15 points and 11 rebounds on 01/15 vs LAC, generating a massive +16.0 impact by overwhelming the opposition in the paint.
Marvin Bagley III's late-season stretch was defined by maddening volatility, oscillating wildly between hyper-efficient bench scoring binges and completely invisible spot starts. When engaged as a reserve, he was a wrecking ball. During the 03/28 vs POR matchup, he erupted for 26 points and 9 rebounds on blistering 11-for-14 shooting, generating a massive +26.2 Impact score through flawless shot selection and sheer offensive force. He flashed similar value on 02/20 vs MIN, logging a +17.0 Impact score by bullying his way to 13 boards and generating crucial second-chance opportunities in the paint. Yet, thrust into the starting lineup on 02/26 vs SAC, Bagley managed a respectable 10 points and 9 rebounds but still posted a -4.3 Impact score. That negative mark stemmed from the hidden costs of his floor time, as defensive lapses and poor rotational awareness dragged down his overall effectiveness despite the decent counting stats. As an energetic backup, he remains a potent weapon, but heavier starting responsibilities quickly expose his glaring fundamental limitations.
IMPACT TIMELINE
Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.
Boom-or-bust player. III's impact swings wildly relative to his average — some nights dominant, others invisible. Scoring varies by ~6 points per game.
Reliable shooter — hits 45%+ from the field in 73% of games. You can count on efficient nights more often than not.
Good defender on his best nights, but it comes and goes. Some games III locks in defensively, others he gets picked apart.
Slight upward trend. First-half impact: +1.3, second-half: +3.3. Modest improvement — possibly settling into a rhythm.
Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 4 games. Longest cold streak: 6 games.
MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 46 days ago
Based on 62 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.
ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM
His shooting stats against each primary defender this season
ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED
How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.
SEASON STATS
GAME LOG
60 games played
