ORL

2025-26 Season

JAMAL CAIN

Orlando Magic | Forward | 6-7
Jamal Cain
5.3PPG
2.1RPG
0.7APG
13.0MPG
-3.9 Impact

Cain produces at an below average rate for a 13-minute workload.

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IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
-3.9
Scoring +5.1
Points Scored 5.3 PPG = +5.3
Missed Shots difficulty-adjusted = -1.4
Shot Making above expected FG% = +1.2
Creation +0.4
Assists & Self-Creation 0.7 AST/g + self-creation = +0.4
Turnovers -1.2
Turnovers 0.5/g (live + dead blend) = -1.2
Defense -0.7
Steals 0.3/g = +0.7
Blocks 0.1/g = +0.1
Fouls + context committed fouls, matchup adj = -1.5
Hustle & Effort +2.1
Rebounds 2.1 RPG (OREB + DREB) = +1.4
Contested Shots 1.5/g = +0.3
Deflections 0.7/g = +0.4
Charges Drawn 0.0/g = +0.0
Loose Balls 0.0/g = +0.0
Screen Assists 0.1/g = +0.0
Raw Impact +5.7
Baseline (game-average expected) −9.6
Net Impact
-3.9
26th pctl vs Forwards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 235 Forwards with 10+ games

Scoring 31th
6.8 PPG
Efficiency 82th
61.2% TS
Playmaking 14th
0.8 APG
Rebounding 20th
2.8 RPG
Defense 36th
+6.5/g
Hustle 42th
+11.4/g
Creation 34th
+1.90/g
Shot Making 36th
+4.77/g
TO Discipline 77th
0.04/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

Jamal Cain spent the first quarter of the 2025-26 season battling for relevance at the end of the bench, producing a string of disjointed cameos that routinely hurt his team. His struggles peaked during an abysmal five-minute stint on 12/23 vs GSW, where he forced three missed shots, went scoreless, and posted a staggering -15.1 impact score. Even when he found the bottom of the net, hidden costs dragged his overall value firmly into the red. On 11/21 vs LAC, Cain hit both of his field goal attempts for 5 points in just five minutes, yet still registered a -6.7 impact score because he failed to grab a single rebound or offer any peripheral value to justify his minutes. He managed exactly one genuinely positive performance during this 14-game stretch. That lone flash of competence arrived on 12/31 vs IND, where an efficient 11-point outburst on 3-of-4 shooting finally pushed his impact into the green at +4.5. Ultimately, brief offensive sparks are not enough to secure a rotation spot when a player's overall floor game remains this erratic.

Jamal Cain’s mid-season stretch was a stark tale of two realities: two months of rotting at the end of the bench before suddenly seizing a legitimate rotation role in March. Early on, his brief garbage-time cameos actively hurt the team. He bottomed out on 01/11 vs NOP with a brutal -13.2 Impact score, logging zero points, rebounds, or assists while sleepwalking through three empty minutes. The switch finally flipped on 03/14 vs MIA. Given 18 minutes of run, Cain posted a +1.6 Impact by aggressively crashing the glass for 7 rebounds and scoring 12 efficient points on 5-of-8 shooting. Even when his perimeter shot completely abandoned him on 03/21 vs LAL, he still managed to scrape together a positive +1.2 Impact. Despite clanking five of his six attempts from beyond the arc, he justified his season-high 23 minutes by grinding out five tough rebounds and providing the gritty hustle his team desperately needed.

Jamal Cain’s late-season stretch was defined by extreme whiplash, bouncing wildly between hyper-efficient scoring bursts and completely invisible duds. The absolute bottom fell out on 03/29 vs TOR, where a brutal 0-for-3 shooting night and a total lack of playmaking in just eight minutes resulted in a catastrophic -25.7 impact score. He completely flipped the script shortly after on 03/31 vs PHX. Despite scoring a modest 12 points, his mistake-free shot selection and flawless 2-for-2 mark from deep generated a massive +13.9 impact score. Cain reached his absolute peak on 04/10 vs CHI. He torched the nets for 20 points on 9-of-11 shooting, grabbing eight rebounds and posting a team-lifting +18.5 impact score simply by taking high-percentage looks and attacking the glass. When he plays within the flow of the offense, he looks like a legitimate rotation piece, but his tendency to vanish on cold nights makes him a frustrating gamble.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Struggling. Cain has posted negative impact in 78% of games this season. The production rarely outweighs the cost.

Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 47% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.

Getting better as the season goes on. First-half impact: -6.4, second-half: -1.4. That's a significant jump — could be a role change, confidence, or development clicking.

Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 2 games. Longest cold streak: 12 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 46 days ago

Based on 49 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

D. Mitchell 24.7 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.16
PTS 4
J. Walker 15.9 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.13
PTS 2
D. McDermott 15.7 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.13
PTS 2
K. Thompson 15.5 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
P. Siakam 14.0 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.5
PTS 7
D. Booker 13.9 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
L. Dončić 13.0 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
E. Gordon 12.6 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
N. Powell 12.2 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.16
PTS 2
A. Reaves 11.8 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

D. Mitchell 25.4 poss
FG% 87.5%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.67
PTS 17
K. Thompson 19.7 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.36
PTS 7
N. Powell 17.4 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.34
PTS 6
A. Reaves 15.4 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.13
PTS 2
D. Booker 14.7 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
P. Siakam 12.6 poss
FG% 62.5%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.87
PTS 11
A. Nembhard 12.2 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.16
PTS 2
B. Mathurin 11.9 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
D. McDermott 11.7 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.26
PTS 3
D. White 11.1 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.18
PTS 2

SEASON STATS

49
Games
5.3
PPG
2.1
RPG
0.7
APG
0.3
SPG
0.1
BPG
48.1
FG%
36.8
3P%
77.0
FT%
13.0
MPG

GAME LOG

49 games played