ORL

2025-26 Season

WENDELL CARTER JR.

Orlando Magic | Center-Forward | 6-10
Wendell Carter Jr.
11.7PPG
7.4RPG
2.0APG
29.7MPG
+5.1 Impact

Jr. produces at an elite rate for a 30-minute workload. Defensive impact (-1.3/game) is a concern.

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IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
+5.1
Scoring +10.1
Points Scored 11.7 PPG = +11.7
Missed Shots difficulty-adjusted = -3.5
Shot Making above expected FG% = +1.9
Creation +1.0
Assists & Self-Creation 2.0 AST/g + self-creation = +1.0
Turnovers -3.1
Turnovers 1.3/g (live + dead blend) = -3.1
Defense -1.3
Steals 0.7/g = +1.6
Blocks 0.7/g = +0.6
Fouls + context committed fouls, matchup adj = -3.5
Hustle & Effort +7.3
Rebounds 7.4 RPG (OREB + DREB) = +4.1
Contested Shots 6.4/g = +1.3
Deflections 1.3/g = +0.9
Charges Drawn 0.0/g = +0.0
Loose Balls 0.5/g = +0.3
Screen Assists 2.3/g = +0.7
Raw Impact +14.0
Baseline (game-average expected) −8.9
Net Impact
+5.1
67th pctl vs Centers

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 93 Centers with 10+ games

Scoring 68th
11.7 PPG
Efficiency 60th
60.8% TS
Playmaking 72th
2.0 APG
Rebounding 67th
7.4 RPG
Defense 49th
+6.4/g
Hustle 76th
+21.6/g
Creation 80th
+3.59/g
Shot Making 73th
+6.21/g
TO Discipline 74th
0.04/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

Wendell Carter Jr. spent the first third of the 2025-26 season operating as the ultimate high-floor connector, blending rugged interior defense with highly selective offense. Even when his shot completely abandoned him, he found ways to dictate terms. Take the 10/25 vs CHI matchup, where he managed a +9.7 Impact score despite a miserable 1-for-7 shooting night. He salvaged that performance by swallowing up 13 rebounds and setting punishing screens, generating immense value through sheer physical exertion rather than box-score flash. Yet his occasional passivity carries hidden costs. During his 11/09 vs BOS outing, he scored a respectable 12 points, but a sluggish -3.6 Impact score exposed the damage of his inefficient 4-for-10 shooting and a meager four rebounds. When he actually demands the ball, the entire offense transforms. He completely dismantled the interior on 12/19 vs DEN, dropping 26 points on blistering 11-for-15 shooting to post a staggering +27.3 Impact score through sheer offensive force.

Wendell Carter Jr. spent the middle of the season riding a chaotic rollercoaster, oscillating wildly between dominant interior anchor and inefficient perimeter liability. When he stayed within his role, the results were staggering, perfectly captured on 01/04 vs IND. He racked up 18 points and 12 boards on highly efficient 6-for-10 shooting, generating a massive +20.6 Impact score by dominating the paint and keeping the offense flowing. Even when his jumper vanished completely, he still found ways to tilt the floor with pure hustle. During the 12/31 vs IND matchup, Carter managed just six points but still posted a +6.8 Impact score because he relentlessly crashed the glass for 11 rebounds. Conversely, a shiny box score sometimes masked the hidden costs of his shot selection. On 01/03 vs CHI, Carter recorded a double-double with 13 points and 10 rebounds, yet suffered a -3.6 Impact score because his woeful 4-for-12 shooting and forced three-point attempts completely derailed the offense. He remains a fascinating puzzle who thrives when doing the dirty work but struggles when stretching beyond his limits.

This late-season stretch was defined by Wendell Carter Jr.'s ruthless interior efficiency and relentless glass-cleaning, anchoring the frontcourt with blue-collar consistency rather than flashy volume. He set the tone immediately on 02/24 vs LAL, racking up 20 points and 11 rebounds on 9-of-13 shooting to generate a massive +18.9 Impact score. That stellar rating stemmed directly from his pristine shot selection and physical rebounding, punishing defenders in the paint without forcing bad looks. Even when his touch completely abandoned him, he still found ways to win his minutes. During the 04/15 vs PHI matchup, Carter scored just five points on a miserable 1-of-7 from the floor, yet still posted a +5.6 Impact score because he swallowed up 11 rebounds and created crucial extra possessions through pure hustle. However, his offensive limitations occasionally crippled the rotation, peaking during a brutal outing on 04/12 vs BOS. Going 0-of-5 from the field for just three points dragged him down to a glaring -10.0 Impact score, highlighting how quickly his overall value plummets when he fails to convert easy looks around the rim.

Wendell Carter Jr.’s late-season stretch was defined by maddening inconsistency, oscillating wildly between dominant interior enforcement and total two-way passivity. Even when his shot was falling, hidden defensive costs often dragged down his overall value. On Mar 14 vs MIA, he scored an efficient 15 points but suffered an ugly -7.3 impact score due to severe defensive lapses in pick-and-roll coverage. Conversely, he occasionally found ways to salvage his nightly grade when his touch completely abandoned him. During the Apr 15 vs PHI matchup, Carter Jr. scraped together a +1.1 impact despite scoring just 5 points on abysmal 1-for-7 shooting because his elite work on the glass buoyed his overall value. When fully engaged on both ends, however, he remains a bruising tactical weapon. He battered the opposition on Mar 12 vs WAS, posting 19 points and 11 rebounds for a staggering +14.5 impact score fueled by dominant interior positioning and elite screen-setting.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Volatile for his role. Jr. has noticeable ups and downs, with scoring moving ~5 points between games.

Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 61% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.

Defensive difference-maker. Jr. consistently forces tough shots and protects the rim — opponents shoot worse when he's guarding them.

Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 11 games. Longest cold streak: 2 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 46 days ago

Based on 72 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

B. Adebayo 167.4 poss
FG% 63.2%
3P% 37.5%
PPP 0.17
PTS 29
N. Vučević 117.7 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.16
PTS 19
K. Towns 97.2 poss
FG% 70.0%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.19
PTS 18
J. Duren 93.5 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.11
PTS 10
N. Jokić 85.7 poss
FG% 47.4%
3P% 42.9%
PPP 0.25
PTS 21
E. Mobley 83.0 poss
FG% 58.3%
3P% 20.0%
PPP 0.23
PTS 19
M. Raynaud 76.7 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.1
PTS 8
O. Okongwu 76.5 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.22
PTS 17
A. Sarr 75.6 poss
FG% 72.7%
3P% 75.0%
PPP 0.25
PTS 19
N. Claxton 72.3 poss
FG% 62.5%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.15
PTS 11

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

B. Adebayo 236.7 poss
FG% 44.7%
3P% 9.1%
PPP 0.19
PTS 46
N. Vučević 121.7 poss
FG% 75.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.16
PTS 20
K. Towns 97.4 poss
FG% 54.5%
3P% 20.0%
PPP 0.34
PTS 33
E. Mobley 89.9 poss
FG% 47.1%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.23
PTS 21
J. Duren 89.8 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.1
PTS 9
N. Claxton 83.2 poss
FG% 41.7%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.14
PTS 12
M. Raynaud 78.6 poss
FG% 83.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.17
PTS 13
N. Jokić 78.2 poss
FG% 44.4%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.26
PTS 20
A. Sarr 71.2 poss
FG% 45.5%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.17
PTS 12
D. Clingan 69.1 poss
FG% 20.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.03
PTS 2

SEASON STATS

87
Games
11.7
PPG
7.4
RPG
2.0
APG
0.7
SPG
0.7
BPG
51.2
FG%
31.9
3P%
77.9
FT%
29.7
MPG

GAME LOG

87 games played