DET

2025-26 Season

DUNCAN ROBINSON

Detroit Pistons | Forward | 6-7
Duncan Robinson
12.1PPG
2.6RPG
2.1APG
27.8MPG
+2.5 Impact

Robinson produces at an above average rate for a 28-minute workload.

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IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
+2.5
Scoring +11.4
Points Scored 12.1 PPG = +12.1
Missed Shots difficulty-adjusted = -4.0
Shot Making above expected FG% = +3.3
Creation +0.7
Assists & Self-Creation 2.1 AST/g + self-creation = +0.7
Turnovers -1.8
Turnovers 0.8/g (live + dead blend) = -1.8
Defense -0.5
Steals 0.7/g = +1.6
Blocks 0.3/g = +0.3
Fouls + context committed fouls, matchup adj = -2.4
Hustle & Effort +1.6
Rebounds 2.6 RPG (OREB + DREB) = -0.4
Contested Shots 2.7/g = +0.5
Deflections 1.5/g = +1.0
Charges Drawn 0.1/g = +0.2
Loose Balls 0.3/g = +0.2
Screen Assists 0.5/g = +0.1
Raw Impact +11.4
Baseline (game-average expected) −8.9
Net Impact
+2.5
66th pctl vs Forwards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 235 Forwards with 10+ games

Scoring 66th
12.1 PPG
Efficiency 84th
61.7% TS
Playmaking 65th
2.1 APG
Rebounding 16th
2.6 RPG
Defense 87th
+10.2/g
Hustle 10th
+6.7/g
Creation 47th
+2.28/g
Shot Making 73th
+7.40/g
TO Discipline 94th
0.03/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

Duncan Robinson’s opening stretch of the 2025-26 campaign was a wildly volatile shooting rollercoaster that routinely dictated his team's offensive ceiling. When the perimeter jumper abandoned him, his overall value completely tanked. Look no further than the opener on 10/22 vs CHI, where he bricked all five of his three-point attempts to finish with just two points and a disastrous -15.4 Impact. Yet, when he caught fire, he broke opposing defensive schemes. During the 11/23 vs MIL matchup, Robinson drained five of his six triples for 15 points, generating a massive +17.3 Impact through sheer floor-spacing gravity and flawless shot selection. Occasionally, he managed to stay on the floor even when the touch faded. Despite a miserable 3-for-11 shooting night from deep for just 9 points on 11/29 vs ORL, he salvaged a +1.4 Impact by fighting through screens and making the gritty hustle plays that kept possessions alive. He remains the ultimate boom-or-bust specialist.

This midseason stretch was defined by a volatile shooting rollercoaster that entirely dictated Robinson's value. When his jumper abandoned him, the results were catastrophic. On 01/28 vs DEN, he missed all eight of his three-point attempts to finish with a meager 2 points. That horrid shot selection and inability to convert actively derailed offensive possessions, earning him a brutal -11.4 Impact score. Yet, when his stroke returned, his perimeter gravity ripped opponents apart. During the 01/18 vs IND matchup, he efficiently poured in 16 points on 4-of-6 shooting from deep, generating a stellar +9.1 Impact score by punishing every late rotation. He even found ways to contribute when his scoring volume dipped. Despite logging only 9 points on 01/06 vs NYK, he still posted a +6.4 Impact score because his aggressive off-ball movement and five rebounds created crucial hidden value away from the primary box score.

This late-season stretch was defined by maddening volatility, as Duncan Robinson oscillated violently between being a lethal sniper and an outright offensive ghost. When his confidence vanished, he actively hurt the team. He bottomed out entirely on 03/15 vs TOR, where he attempted just two shots in 24 minutes to score a single point. That sheer passivity crippled the offensive flow, resulting in a brutal -17.6 Impact. Yet, when he hunted his shot aggressively, he completely warped opposing defenses. He caught fire on 03/12 vs PHI, pouring in 19 points on blistering 5-for-7 shooting from beyond the arc to generate a stellar +14.9 Impact. Interestingly, his point totals rarely told the whole story of his floor game. On 03/23 vs LAL, he managed 12 points and hit four triples, but still posted a -5.0 Impact because his overall shooting inefficiency and absolute failure to grab a single rebound surrendered too many crucial possessions.

Duncan Robinson's late-season stretch was defined by the extreme volatility of life as a one-dimensional shooting specialist. Even when his jumper was falling, his limitations constantly threatened to sink his value on the floor. Take his performance during the Mar 31 vs TOR game, where he poured in 19 points on 5-of-8 shooting from deep, yet still posted a -4.9 impact score because his defensive liabilities (-4.7) bled away all his offensive gains. Conversely, his relentless cutting and perimeter gravity during the Apr 08 vs MIL matchup yielded a stellar +9.9 impact score as he efficiently racked up 20 points and opened massive driving lanes for his teammates. But when the aggression vanished entirely, he became an active detriment. In the Mar 15 vs TOR contest, a complete lack of offensive aggression resulted in just 1 point on two shot attempts, plunging him to a disastrous -18.9 impact score.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Boom-or-bust player. Robinson's impact swings wildly relative to his average — some nights dominant, others invisible. Scoring varies by ~5 points per game.

Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 53% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.

Average defender. Robinson doesn't hurt you defensively, but he's not making opponents uncomfortable either.

Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 8 games. Longest cold streak: 3 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 46 days ago

Based on 74 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

P. Pritchard 116.0 poss
FG% 41.7%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.13
PTS 15
S. Merrill 98.3 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 28.6%
PPP 0.14
PTS 14
B. Sheppard 84.5 poss
FG% 26.7%
3P% 18.2%
PPP 0.14
PTS 12
I. Okoro 79.7 poss
FG% 58.3%
3P% 77.8%
PPP 0.26
PTS 21
FG% 66.7%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.09
PTS 6
G. Allen 47.9 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.15
PTS 7
Q. Grimes 47.5 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.17
PTS 8
T. da Silva 47.4 poss
FG% 16.7%
3P% 20.0%
PPP 0.06
PTS 3
V. Krejčí 47.2 poss
FG% 71.4%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.3
PTS 14
N. Clifford 46.3 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.15
PTS 7

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

S. Merrill 113.1 poss
FG% 38.5%
3P% 40.0%
PPP 0.12
PTS 14
I. Okoro 91.7 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.02
PTS 2
B. Sheppard 65.6 poss
FG% 14.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.03
PTS 2
T. Johnson 62.7 poss
FG% 57.1%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.29
PTS 18
D. Daniels 60.5 poss
FG% 57.1%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.13
PTS 8
R. Barrett 59.8 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.2
PTS 12
S. Mykhailiuk 55.8 poss
FG% 63.6%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.32
PTS 18
J. Champagnie 52.5 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.06
PTS 3
N. Clifford 52.1 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.17
PTS 9
T. da Silva 47.8 poss
FG% 85.7%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.25
PTS 12

SEASON STATS

89
Games
12.1
PPG
2.6
RPG
2.1
APG
0.7
SPG
0.3
BPG
45.3
FG%
41.5
3P%
73.6
FT%
27.8
MPG

GAME LOG

89 games played