THE VALUE BOARD

Every NBA contract graded by what a player actually produces — Net Impact — against what he's paid. The biggest steals and worst contracts in basketball, the lens for every off-season move.

As of 2026-07-18 · 2025-26 salaries

Surplus vs market Raw impact / $M

BIGGEST STEALS

Most Net Impact delivered per $1M of salary. Rookie-scale deals dominate by design — they're the cheapest production in the league.

# Player Team Net Imp Salary Imp / $M RAPM
1 Maxime RaynaudTEAM OPTION SAC +4.6 $1.3M +3.63 -0.8
2 Moussa DiabatéTEAM OPTION CHA +6.5 $2.3M +2.87 -0.2
3 Neemias QuetaTEAM OPTION BOS +6.5 $2.3M +2.77 -0.5
4 Jalen DurenROOKIE SCALE DET +16.2 $6.5M +2.49 -0.9
5 Keyonte GeorgeROOKIE SCALE UTA +9.2 $4.3M +2.15 +0.0
6 Collin GillespieEXPIRING PHX +4.6 $2.4M +1.92 -0.1
7 Saddiq Bey NOP +11.0 $6.1M +1.80 +0.1
8 Ajay MitchellTEAM OPTION OKC +5.4 $3.0M +1.80 +1.4
9 Kel'el WareROOKIE SCALETEAM OPTION MIA +7.9 $4.4M +1.78 +0.6
10 Victor WembanyamaROOKIE SCALE SAS +23.5 $13.4M +1.75 +1.2
11 Ryan RollinsROOKIE SCALEPLAYER OPTION MIL +6.5 $4.0M +1.63 -0.4
12 Donovan ClinganROOKIE SCALETEAM OPTION POR +11.6 $7.2M +1.61 +0.1
13 Precious AchiuwaEXPIRING SAC +3.9 $2.5M +1.59 -1.3
14 Kevin Porter Jr.PLAYER OPTION MIL +8.0 $5.1M +1.56 -0.1
15 Brandin PodziemskiROOKIE SCALE GSW +5.3 $3.7M +1.44 +0.1
16 Oscar TshiebweTWO-WAYEXPIRING UTA +0.9 $0.6M +1.37 -0.6
17 Sandro MamukelashviliPLAYER OPTION TOR +3.3 $2.5M +1.36 +0.5
18 Mark WilliamsROOKIE SCALE PHX +8.5 $6.3M +1.36 -0.9
19 Amen ThompsonROOKIE SCALE HOU +12.8 $9.7M +1.32 -0.1
20 Toumani Camara POR +2.8 $2.2M +1.26 +0.3
21 Chaney JohnsonTWO-WAYEXPIRING BKN +0.6 $0.3M +1.25 -0.3
22 Julian ChampagnieTEAM OPTION SAS +3.7 $3.0M +1.23 +1.1
23 Malachi SmithTWO-WAYEXPIRING BKN +0.6 $0.1M +1.17 -0.6
24 Jordan GoodwinEXPIRING PHX +2.7 $2.3M +1.16 -0.2
25 Deandre AytonPLAYER OPTION LAL +9.1 $8.1M +1.12 -1.0
26 Payton Pritchard BOS +8.0 $7.2M +1.11 +1.3
27 Jaime Jaquez Jr.ROOKIE SCALE MIA +4.2 $3.9M +1.09 -0.5
28 Jock LandaleEXPIRING MEM +2.5 $2.5M +1.02 -0.2
29 Chet HolmgrenROOKIE SCALE OKC +13.6 $13.7M +0.99 +0.8
30 Ty JeromePLAYER OPTION MEM +8.6 $8.8M +0.98 +0.6

WORST CONTRACTS

Players paid $20M+ producing well below what that money should buy. (Genuine top-tier stars are excluded — a max deal for an elite player is a salary-cap artifact, not a bad contract.)

# Player Team Net Imp Salary Over Yrs Left
1 Trae YoungPLAYER OPTION WAS +2.7 $46.4M −$32M 2
2 Paul GeorgePLAYER OPTION PHI +7.0 $51.7M −$31M 3
3 Zach LaVinePLAYER OPTION SAC +4.9 $47.5M −$30M 2
4 Khris MiddletonEXPIRING DAL -3.7 $33.3M −$28M 1
5 Ja Morant MEM +2.7 $39.4M −$25M 3
6 Jordan Poole NOP -2.2 $31.8M −$24M 2
7 Draymond GreenPLAYER OPTION GSW -5.4 $25.9M −$24M 2
8 Darius Garland LAC +3.4 $39.4M −$24M 3
9 Jalen Suggs ORL +1.7 $35.0M −$22M 5
10 Domantas Sabonis SAC +8.4 $42.3M −$20M 3
11 Kentavious Caldwell-PopePLAYER OPTION MEM -3.2 $21.6M −$16M 2
12 De'Aaron Fox SAS +7.3 $37.1M −$16M 5
13 LaMelo Ball CHA +7.9 $38.0M −$16M 4
14 Jerami GrantPLAYER OPTION POR +4.4 $32.0M −$15M 3
15 Jalen GreenPLAYER OPTION PHX +5.5 $33.3M −$15M 3
16 Anfernee SimonsEXPIRING BOS +1.9 $27.7M −$14M 1
17 Jrue HolidayPLAYER OPTION POR +5.0 $32.4M −$14M 3
18 Jaren Jackson Jr.PLAYER OPTION MEM +7.0 $35.0M −$14M 5
How the Value Board works

Net Impact is our per-possession value metric — points created vs. an average player, built from play-by-play credit. Season averages are empirical-Bayes shrunk toward the league mean by each player's own game-to-game consistency, so a small-sample spike can't mint a fake bargain (no minimum-games cutoff — we shrink, never suppress).

Surplus regresses every salary on stabilized Net Impact to find the league's revealed price per impact point, then takes the residual: what the market would pay for this production, minus the actual salary. Above the line = steal; far below it at star money = bad contract.

RAPM (multi-year regularized plus-minus) is shown as an independent sanity check — when surplus and RAPM agree, the signal is real.