THE VALUE BOARD

Every NBA contract graded by what a player actually produces — Net Impact — against what he's paid. The biggest steals and worst contracts in basketball, the lens for every off-season move.

As of 2026-07-18 · 2025-26 salaries

Surplus vs market Raw impact / $M

BIGGEST STEALS

Players producing far more than the league pays for their impact level. Surplus = what the market would pay for this production, minus their actual salary.

# Player Team Net Imp Salary Surplus RAPM
1 Victor WembanyamaROOKIE SCALE SAS +23.5 $13.4M +$32M +1.2
2 Jalen DurenROOKIE SCALE DET +16.2 $6.5M +$28M -0.9
3 Saddiq Bey NOP +11.0 $6.1M +$21M +0.1
4 Donovan ClinganROOKIE SCALETEAM OPTION POR +11.6 $7.2M +$21M +0.1
5 Amen ThompsonROOKIE SCALE HOU +12.8 $9.7M +$20M -0.1
6 Keyonte GeorgeROOKIE SCALE UTA +9.2 $4.3M +$20M +0.0
7 Moussa DiabatéTEAM OPTION CHA +6.5 $2.3M +$18M -0.2
8 Neemias QuetaTEAM OPTION BOS +6.5 $2.3M +$18M -0.5
9 Kel'el WareROOKIE SCALETEAM OPTION MIA +7.9 $4.4M +$18M +0.6
10 Chet HolmgrenROOKIE SCALE OKC +13.6 $13.7M +$18M +0.8
11 Mark WilliamsROOKIE SCALE PHX +8.5 $6.3M +$17M -0.9
12 Kevin Porter Jr.PLAYER OPTION MIL +8.0 $5.1M +$17M -0.1
13 Ryan RollinsROOKIE SCALEPLAYER OPTION MIL +6.5 $4.0M +$16M -0.4
14 Maxime RaynaudTEAM OPTION SAC +4.6 $1.3M +$16M -0.8
15 Deandre AytonPLAYER OPTION LAL +9.1 $8.1M +$16M -1.0
16 Ajay MitchellTEAM OPTION OKC +5.4 $3.0M +$16M +1.4
17 Cooper FlaggROOKIE SCALETEAM OPTION DAL +12.7 $13.8M +$16M -0.3
18 Payton Pritchard BOS +8.0 $7.2M +$15M +1.3
19 Collin GillespieEXPIRING PHX +4.6 $2.4M +$15M -0.1
20 Brandin PodziemskiROOKIE SCALE GSW +5.3 $3.7M +$15M +0.1
21 Ty JeromePLAYER OPTION MEM +8.6 $8.8M +$14M +0.6
22 Dyson DanielsROOKIE SCALE ATL +7.4 $7.7M +$14M -0.1
23 Precious AchiuwaEXPIRING SAC +3.9 $2.5M +$14M -1.3
24 Kon KnueppelROOKIE SCALETEAM OPTION CHA +8.7 $10.0M +$14M +0.9
25 Jalen WilliamsROOKIE SCALE OKC +6.4 $6.6M +$14M -1.2
26 Sandro MamukelashviliPLAYER OPTION TOR +3.3 $2.5M +$13M +0.5
27 Julian ChampagnieTEAM OPTION SAS +3.7 $3.0M +$13M +1.1
28 Jaime Jaquez Jr.ROOKIE SCALE MIA +4.2 $3.9M +$13M -0.5
29 Toumani Camara POR +2.8 $2.2M +$12M +0.3
30 Deni Avdija POR +10.7 $14.4M +$12M +0.1

WORST CONTRACTS

Players paid $20M+ producing well below what that money should buy. (Genuine top-tier stars are excluded — a max deal for an elite player is a salary-cap artifact, not a bad contract.)

# Player Team Net Imp Salary Over Yrs Left
1 Trae YoungPLAYER OPTION WAS +2.7 $46.4M −$32M 2
2 Paul GeorgePLAYER OPTION PHI +7.0 $51.7M −$31M 3
3 Zach LaVinePLAYER OPTION SAC +4.9 $47.5M −$30M 2
4 Khris MiddletonEXPIRING DAL -3.7 $33.3M −$28M 1
5 Ja Morant MEM +2.7 $39.4M −$25M 3
6 Jordan Poole NOP -2.2 $31.8M −$24M 2
7 Draymond GreenPLAYER OPTION GSW -5.4 $25.9M −$24M 2
8 Darius Garland LAC +3.4 $39.4M −$24M 3
9 Jalen Suggs ORL +1.7 $35.0M −$22M 5
10 Domantas Sabonis SAC +8.4 $42.3M −$20M 3
11 Kentavious Caldwell-PopePLAYER OPTION MEM -3.2 $21.6M −$16M 2
12 De'Aaron Fox SAS +7.3 $37.1M −$16M 5
13 LaMelo Ball CHA +7.9 $38.0M −$16M 4
14 Jerami GrantPLAYER OPTION POR +4.4 $32.0M −$15M 3
15 Jalen GreenPLAYER OPTION PHX +5.5 $33.3M −$15M 3
16 Anfernee SimonsEXPIRING BOS +1.9 $27.7M −$14M 1
17 Jrue HolidayPLAYER OPTION POR +5.0 $32.4M −$14M 3
18 Jaren Jackson Jr.PLAYER OPTION MEM +7.0 $35.0M −$14M 5
How the Value Board works

Net Impact is our per-possession value metric — points created vs. an average player, built from play-by-play credit. Season averages are empirical-Bayes shrunk toward the league mean by each player's own game-to-game consistency, so a small-sample spike can't mint a fake bargain (no minimum-games cutoff — we shrink, never suppress).

Surplus regresses every salary on stabilized Net Impact to find the league's revealed price per impact point, then takes the residual: what the market would pay for this production, minus the actual salary. Above the line = steal; far below it at star money = bad contract.

RAPM (multi-year regularized plus-minus) is shown as an independent sanity check — when surplus and RAPM agree, the signal is real.