WAS

2025-26 Season

WILL RILEY

Washington Wizards | Forward | 6-9
Will Riley
10.3PPG
2.9RPG
2.0APG
22.1MPG
-3.0 Impact

Riley produces at an below average rate for a 22-minute workload.

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IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
-3.0
Scoring +8.7
Points Scored 10.3 PPG = +10.3
Missed Shots difficulty-adjusted = -3.7
Shot Making above expected FG% = +2.1
Creation +0.8
Assists & Self-Creation 2.0 AST/g + self-creation = +0.8
Turnovers -2.8
Turnovers 1.3/g (live + dead blend) = -2.8
Defense +0.4
Steals 0.7/g = +1.6
Blocks 0.1/g = +0.1
Fouls + context committed fouls, matchup adj = -1.3
Hustle & Effort +2.3
Rebounds 2.9 RPG (OREB + DREB) = +1.0
Contested Shots 2.8/g = +0.6
Deflections 0.9/g = +0.6
Charges Drawn 0.0/g = +0.0
Loose Balls 0.1/g = +0.1
Screen Assists 0.1/g = +0.0
Raw Impact +9.4
Baseline (game-average expected) −12.4
Net Impact
-3.0
29th pctl vs Forwards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 234 Forwards with 10+ games

Scoring 62th
11.3 PPG
Efficiency 24th
52.4% TS
Playmaking 66th
2.2 APG
Rebounding 26th
3.1 RPG
Defense 88th
+10.3/g
Hustle 53th
+12.7/g
Creation 62th
+2.73/g
Shot Making 58th
+6.38/g
TO Discipline 27th
0.06/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

Will Riley spent the first quarter of the season clawing his way from garbage-time irrelevance into a legitimate rotation role, though his actual on-court value remained wildly erratic. He finally broke through the noise on 12/03 vs PHI, logging 26 minutes and posting a +6.0 impact score driven by highly efficient shot selection and a perfect 2-for-2 mark from deep. Yet, his scoring outbursts often masked glaring hidden costs. During a 15-point performance on 12/07 vs ATL, Riley logged a disappointing -5.6 impact score because he offered zero playmaking and chucked up five ill-advised three-pointers, hitting just one. When his jumper vanished entirely, the floor completely caved in. Look no further than 12/28 vs MEM, where a brutal 0-for-5 shooting night dragged him down to a staggering -15.1 impact score. Riley has the raw offensive flashes to stay on an NBA floor, but until he stops bleeding value through forced shots and empty-calorie possessions, his minutes will remain a major gamble.

Will Riley’s mid-season stretch was defined by a volatile awakening, transforming from a bench liability into an explosive scoring threat almost overnight. Early January was brutal. During the 01/19 vs LAC matchup, he hoisted up terrible shots to finish 0-for-5 from the floor with just 1 point, dragging the team down with a miserable -14.6 Impact score. Yet, just weeks later, a switch flipped. Earning a rare start on 02/07 vs BKN, Riley erupted for 27 points in 45 minutes, generating a massive +17.2 Impact score through highly efficient shot creation and relentless offensive aggression. Even when his jumper completely abandoned him later in the month, he learned to salvage his court value. During the 02/26 vs ATL game, he scored a modest 14 points on a clunky 6-for-17 from the field, but still managed a +6.1 Impact score because his gritty hustle resulted in 10 hard-fought rebounds. This wild swing from pure liability to essential sparkplug reveals a young player finally figuring out how to affect winning.

Will Riley’s late-season stretch was defined by maddening inconsistency, oscillating wildly between explosive offensive outbursts and brutal, offense-killing slumps. When his shot selection tightened up, he looked like a genuine star. He erupted on 04/04 vs MIA for 31 points on pristine 12-of-17 shooting, generating a staggering +34.0 Impact score. Yet, his insistence on forcing bad jumpers often dragged his team down, even when his raw point totals looked respectable. He dropped 20 points on 03/30 vs LAL, but the hidden cost of his inefficient volume resulted in a -0.7 Impact after he bricked six of his seven three-point attempts and tallied just two assists. The bottom completely fell out on 04/07 vs CHI. Relegated back to the bench, he clanked his way to a miserable 1-of-13 shooting night, registering a disastrous -17.8 Impact.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Boom-or-bust player. Riley's impact swings wildly relative to his average — some nights dominant, others invisible. Scoring varies by ~8 points per game.

Streaky shooter — only cracks 45% from the field in 36% of games. Efficiency is all over the place night-to-night.

Good defender on his best nights, but it comes and goes. Some games Riley locks in defensively, others he gets picked apart.

Getting better as the season goes on. First-half impact: -7.0, second-half: +1.0. That's a significant jump — could be a role change, confidence, or development clicking.

Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 5 games. Longest cold streak: 13 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY

Based on 72 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

P. Banchero 42.4 poss
FG% 28.6%
3P% 20.0%
PPP 0.12
PTS 5
T. Harris 42.3 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.12
PTS 5
Z. Risacher 39.5 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.15
PTS 6
J. McCain 32.5 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.06
PTS 2
D. Bane 29.6 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.07
PTS 2
J. Kuminga 28.5 poss
FG% 75.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.21
PTS 6
L. Ball 28.3 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.18
PTS 5
W. Richard 27.8 poss
FG% 75.0%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.29
PTS 8
K. Jakučionis 27.8 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.11
PTS 3
B. Podziemski 27.5 poss
FG% 75.0%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.29
PTS 8

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

T. da Silva 53.9 poss
FG% 16.7%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.07
PTS 4
J. Kuminga 35.9 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.25
PTS 9
G. Trent Jr. 34.8 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.09
PTS 3
A. Thompson 33.8 poss
FG% 80.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.24
PTS 8
W. Richard 33.5 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.09
PTS 3
K. Jakučionis 33.4 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
K. Huerter 33.1 poss
FG% 20.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.06
PTS 2
T. Harris 32.4 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.09
PTS 3
J. McCain 29.1 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.17
PTS 5
J. Tatum 28.6 poss
FG% 57.1%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.31
PTS 9

SEASON STATS

74
Games
10.3
PPG
2.9
RPG
2.0
APG
0.7
SPG
0.1
BPG
43.9
FG%
31.6
3P%
80.0
FT%
22.1
MPG

GAME LOG

74 games played