TOR

2025-26 Season

A.J. LAWSON

Toronto Raptors | Guard | 6-6
A.J. Lawson
3.5PPG
1.4RPG
0.3APG
8.7MPG
-5.1 Impact

Lawson produces at an poor rate for a 9-minute workload.

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IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
-5.1
Scoring +3.0
Points Scored 3.5 PPG = +3.5
Missed Shots difficulty-adjusted = -1.3
Shot Making above expected FG% = +0.8
Creation +0.1
Assists & Self-Creation 0.3 AST/g + self-creation = +0.1
Turnovers -0.6
Turnovers 0.2/g (live + dead blend) = -0.6
Defense +0.1
Steals 0.4/g = +0.9
Blocks 0.2/g = +0.2
Fouls + context committed fouls, matchup adj = -1.0
Hustle & Effort +1.1
Rebounds 1.4 RPG (OREB + DREB) = +0.8
Contested Shots 0.5/g = +0.1
Deflections 0.3/g = +0.2
Charges Drawn 0.0/g = +0.0
Loose Balls 0.0/g = +0.0
Screen Assists 0.0/g = +0.0
Raw Impact +3.7
Baseline (game-average expected) −8.8
Net Impact
-5.1
22th pctl vs Guards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 246 Guards with 10+ games

Scoring 13th
5.3 PPG
Efficiency 23th
49.9% TS
Playmaking 0th
0.5 APG
Rebounding 19th
2.0 RPG
Defense 8th
+4.1/g
Hustle 27th
+6.7/g
Creation 1th
+0.70/g
Shot Making 10th
+3.75/g
TO Discipline 92th
0.03/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

A.J. Lawson spent his first nine games of the 2025-26 campaign bleeding value as a deep-bench liability, struggling to survive his sporadic rotational minutes. Even when his shot occasionally fell, like his 10-point, 5-rebound outing on 12/07 vs BOS, his overall floor presence yielded a -0.8 impact score due to hidden defensive costs and zero assists. He finally managed to string together a genuinely helpful shift on 01/13 vs PHI. Pouring in a season-high 14 points on sharp 3-for-6 perimeter shooting, Lawson earned a +5.3 impact because his spacing and efficient shot-making actually translated to winning basketball. That brief flash of offensive punch was the lone exception to a miserable trend of empty cardio. The bottom dropped out on 01/17 vs LAC, where he logged 13 minutes but failed to score a single point. Missing both of his field goal attempts and offering zero offensive pressure, Lawson posted a disastrous -12.3 impact score that highlighted exactly why coaches hesitate to trust him.

A.J. Lawson’s mid-season stretch was defined by two months of absolute irrelevance followed by a sudden, explosive burst of perimeter shooting. For weeks, he was nothing more than a ghost at the end of the bench. This invisibility peaked on 01/22 vs SAC, where he logged three empty minutes with zero shot attempts to earn a brutal -13.3 Impact score. His failure to take a single shot or make any tangible offensive contribution in these brief cameos dragged his overall value into the gutter. Then, out of nowhere, he caught fire on 03/29 vs ORL. Given an actual leash of 19 minutes, Lawson poured in 14 points and drilled four three-pointers, generating a massive +12.6 Impact score through sheer shooting efficiency. He kept the hot hand going on 03/31 vs DET, scoring 13 points on a flawless 3-for-3 mark from deep to post a +7.0 Impact score. When he finally gets off the pine and hunts his shot, Lawson transforms from a zero-impact placeholder into a lethal spark plug.

This late-season stretch was defined by erratic minutes and a desperate struggle to stay on the floor. On 04/12 vs BKN, Lawson managed a stretch-high 10 points on crisp 4-for-6 shooting, yet still posted a -0.3 Impact score. Why the negative mark? He offered absolutely zero peripheral production, grabbing no rebounds or assists while bleeding value through poor defensive rotations. Conversely, his longest run came on 04/10 vs NYK. He shot a miserable 1-for-5 from the field over 22 minutes of action. Despite the broken jumper, he actually salvaged a +3.2 Impact score by crashing the glass for six rebounds and injecting much-needed hustle. Unfortunately, he immediately reverted to empty minutes on 04/18 vs CLE, forcing bad shots to finish with a brutal -11.7 Impact score.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Struggling. Lawson has posted negative impact in 81% of games this season. The production rarely outweighs the cost.

Reliable shooter — hits 45%+ from the field in 75% of games. You can count on efficient nights more often than not.

Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 2 games. Longest cold streak: 9 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 46 days ago

Based on 28 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

Q. Grimes 11.4 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.53
PTS 6
T. Maxey 10.8 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
D. Robinson 10.4 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.96
PTS 10
P. George 10.0 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
K. Huerter 9.5 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.21
PTS 2
P. Pritchard 9.4 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.32
PTS 3
V. Edgecombe 8.5 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.24
PTS 2
A. Simons 8.1 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.62
PTS 5
D. Whitehead 7.2 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.14
PTS 1
C. LeVert 7.2 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.14
PTS 1

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

P. George 13.7 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.15
PTS 2
A. Simons 12.7 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
J. Miller 9.6 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.42
PTS 4
V. Edgecombe 9.5 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
Q. Grimes 9.0 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
K. Huerter 8.1 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.37
PTS 3
T. Maxey 7.8 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
Q. Jackson 7.6 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.26
PTS 2
J. Hawkins 7.3 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.41
PTS 3
D. Robinson 7.3 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0

SEASON STATS

32
Games
3.5
PPG
1.4
RPG
0.3
APG
0.4
SPG
0.2
BPG
40.4
FG%
39.6
3P%
80.0
FT%
8.7
MPG

GAME LOG

32 games played