2025-26 Season
ACE BAILEY
2025-26 Season
ACE BAILEY
Bailey produces at an below average rate for a 28-minute workload.
About this model: Net Impact can't measure floor spacing, help defense rotations, or playmaking gravity — so wings and guards are slightly undervalued vs bigs. How Net Impact works
TEAM COMPARISON
of 18 teammates (10+ games, 10+ min)
SKILL DNA
Percentile rank vs 227 Forwards with 10+ games
THE SEASON SO FAR
Ace Bailey's opening stretch was defined by a jarring mid-November role change that rescued him from an abysmal early slump. Coming off the bench to start the year, he looked completely lost. He bottomed out on 10/22 vs LAC with an abysmal -11.9 impact score, scoring just two points because he halted ball movement and stubbornly drove into crowded paint areas. Moving into the starting lineup completely flipped his approach. On 11/21 vs OKC, he posted a massive +8.8 impact score by slashing to the rim with purpose and finishing through contact for 15 efficient points. However, his newfound scoring punch as a starter occasionally carried hidden costs. During his start on 11/30 vs HOU, he poured in 19 points, yet suffered a -4.3 impact score because deep structural flaws completely undermined his brilliant perimeter shot-making. He possesses undeniable talent, but he must learn to hunt his offense without sabotaging the larger system.
A maddening slump driven by catastrophic shot selection and offensive tunnel vision plagued Ace Bailey throughout this stretch. Even when his raw scoring totals looked respectable, hidden costs severely damaged his team. Look at the 01/17 vs DAL matchup. He tallied 18 points and 8 rebounds, yet posted a disastrous -12.2 impact score because live-ball turnovers and severe defensive lapses constantly fueled the opposition. He repeated this hollow production on 01/20 vs MIN, logging 20 points but dragging his impact down to -4.0 by forcing up a heavy volume of inefficient jumpers. Conversely, Bailey occasionally found ways to contribute without commanding the ball. Despite scoring just 4 points on 01/12 vs CLE, he scratched out a +1.3 impact by executing timely weak-side rotations and disciplined defensive closeouts. To become a winning player, he must stop letting selfish perimeter decisions sabotage his actual utility.
A maddening lack of shot discipline defined this stretch, reducing a highly capable scorer into a volatile possession-killer. He frequently sabotaged his own box score production with selfish decisions. During the 02/05 vs ATL matchup, a brutal diet of contested mid-range pull-ups resulted in a -3.6 impact score despite him tallying 20 points. He repeated this script on 03/11 vs NYK. Hunting his own shot early in the clock yielded 21 points, but the hidden cost of disrupting the team's offensive flow dragged him down to a -3.9 impact rating. Yet, when he occasionally stopped forcing the issue, his peripheral value skyrocketed. Look at his 03/13 vs POR appearance, where he scored just 8 points in seven minutes but posted a massive +11.8 impact score by providing elite defensive value that completely flipped the game's momentum. If he ever stops settling for contested jumpers, he might actually become a consistently winning player.
IMPACT TIMELINE
Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.
Boom-or-bust player. Bailey's impact swings wildly relative to his average — some nights dominant, others invisible. Scoring varies by ~8 points per game.
Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 48% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.
Defensive difference-maker. Bailey consistently forces tough shots and protects the rim — opponents shoot worse when he's guarding them.
In a rough stretch — 6 straight games with negative impact. Longest cold streak this season: 9 games.
MATCHUP HISTORY
Based on 68 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.
ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM
His shooting stats against each primary defender this season
ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED
How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.
SEASON STATS
GAME LOG
69 games played