2025-26 Season
ACE BAILEY
2025-26 Season
ACE BAILEY
Bailey produces at an average rate for a 28-minute workload. Defensive impact (-1.1/game) is a concern.
Bailey produces at an average rate for a 28-minute workload. Defensive impact (-1.1/game) is a concern.
PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology
TEAM COMPARISON
of 19 teammates (10+ games, 10+ min)
Similar Players
Same position, closest production profile this season.
SKILL DNA
Percentile rank vs 235 Forwards with 10+ games
THE SEASON SO FAR
Ace Bailey’s first 24 games were defined by a jarring transition from a lost bench prospect to a wildly erratic starter. He looked completely overmatched early on, bottoming out on 10/24 vs SAC with zero points on five missed shots and an abysmal -13.8 Impact score driven by forced jumpers and a total inability to generate offense. A promotion to the starting unit briefly unlocked his rhythm. This was obvious on 11/12 vs IND, where his hot perimeter shooting yielded 20 points and a stellar +7.3 Impact. However, as his minutes ballooned, his overall value often cratered even when his point totals looked respectable. Take his performance on 12/08 vs OKC, where he managed 13 points but posted a dismal -7.2 Impact. That negative mark was the direct result of brutal inefficiency—needing 14 shot attempts to get those 13 points—and an empty defensive presence that bled points on the margins.
Ace Bailey’s mid-season stretch was defined by a jarring tug-of-war between tantalizing scoring flashes and a crippling inefficiency that briefly cost him his starting job. Even when he stuffed the stat sheet upon returning to the starting lineup, hidden costs often dragged down his overall value. Take his performance on 01/17 vs DAL; despite logging 18 points and 8 rebounds, poor defensive rotations and ball-stopping habits resulted in a -2.5 impact score. He finally flipped the script on 01/23 vs SAS. By pouring in 25 points on blistering 11-for-16 shooting, he generated a massive +12.4 impact through elite shot selection rather than sheer volume. Yet, that momentum routinely vanished. During a dismal showing on 02/01 vs TOR, he grabbed 11 rebounds but suffered a brutal 1-for-10 shooting night that yielded an abysmal -8.1 impact, as his forced jumpers actively sabotaged the offense. If Bailey wants to be a true foundational piece, he must realize that hunting shots without discipline is a losing formula.
This stretch of Ace Bailey's season was defined by extreme volatility, swinging wildly between unstoppable perimeter barrages and momentum-killing shooting slumps. On 03/23 vs TOR, Bailey erupted for 37 points while draining seven triples, generating a massive +26.4 Impact score as his scorching shot-making completely overwhelmed the defense. Contrast that with 02/23 vs HOU. He managed a miserable 4 points on 2-of-9 shooting, yet salvaged a +1.1 Impact score by crashing the glass for eight rebounds and grinding out stops defensively. The dark side of his ultimate green light emerged later in the spring. Despite a decent 15-point scoring output on 04/12 vs LAL, Bailey tanked his value to a brutal -13.7 Impact score. His abysmal 7-of-21 shooting and reckless shot selection acted as a hidden cost that stalled the offense and completely erased his point total. He is a lethal weapon when his jumper connects, but his refusal to dial back his volume on cold nights remains a glaring flaw.
IMPACT TIMELINE
Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.
Boom-or-bust player. Bailey's impact swings wildly relative to his average — some nights dominant, others invisible. Scoring varies by ~8 points per game.
Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 48% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.
Average defender. Bailey doesn't hurt you defensively, but he's not making opponents uncomfortable either.
Getting better as the season goes on. First-half impact: -4.3, second-half: +2.4. That's a significant jump — could be a role change, confidence, or development clicking.
Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 5 games. Longest cold streak: 8 games.
MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 46 days ago
Based on 68 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.
ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM
His shooting stats against each primary defender this season
ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED
How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.
SEASON STATS
GAME LOG
72 games played
