CHI

2025-26 Season

MATAS BUZELIS

Chicago Bulls | Forward | 6-8
Matas Buzelis
16.3PPG
5.8RPG
2.1APG
29.2MPG
+3.8 Impact

Buzelis produces at an above average rate for a 29-minute workload.

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IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
+3.8
Scoring +13.9
Points Scored 16.3 PPG = +16.3
Missed Shots difficulty-adjusted = -5.7
Shot Making above expected FG% = +3.3
Creation +1.0
Assists & Self-Creation 2.1 AST/g + self-creation = +1.0
Turnovers -4.8
Turnovers 2.1/g (live + dead blend) = -4.8
Defense -0.1
Steals 0.7/g = +1.6
Blocks 1.5/g = +1.4
Fouls + context committed fouls, matchup adj = -3.1
Hustle & Effort +4.4
Rebounds 5.8 RPG (OREB + DREB) = +1.4
Contested Shots 7.8/g = +1.6
Deflections 1.3/g = +0.9
Charges Drawn 0.0/g = +0.1
Loose Balls 0.4/g = +0.3
Screen Assists 0.4/g = +0.1
Raw Impact +14.4
Baseline (game-average expected) −10.6
Net Impact
+3.8
70th pctl vs Forwards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 235 Forwards with 10+ games

Scoring 81th
16.3 PPG
Efficiency 61th
58.0% TS
Playmaking 64th
2.1 APG
Rebounding 79th
5.8 RPG
Defense 70th
+8.6/g
Hustle 72th
+14.9/g
Creation 77th
+3.38/g
Shot Making 84th
+8.61/g
TO Discipline 16th
0.07/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

A rollercoaster of brilliant flashes marred by frustrating inconsistency defined Matas Buzelis’s opening stretch of the season. He looked like an emerging offensive force on 10/30 vs SAC, pouring in 27 points on crisp 11-of-18 shooting to drive a massive +17.1 Impact score. However, his aggression occasionally crossed into empty calories. Consider his outing on 10/27 vs ATL, where he scored a respectable 16 points but still posted a -0.3 Impact score because inefficient 6-of-14 shooting and defensive lapses actively dragged down the starting unit. Conversely, Buzelis is figuring out how to affect winning even when his jumper completely betrays him. On 11/30 vs IND, he managed a meager eight points on 3-of-9 shooting, yet he still generated a +5.8 Impact score by crashing the glass for 11 rebounds and bringing relentless defensive hustle. The growing pains remain glaring, but his raw two-way upside makes this erratic journey incredibly compelling.

This midseason stretch marked a volatile but thrilling offensive breakout for Matas Buzelis, who finally found his rhythm as a high-volume perimeter threat. He caught fire early on 12/21 vs ATL, dropping 28 points on a blistering 10-of-11 from the floor to generate a massive +23.0 Impact score. Yet his overall influence on the hardwood remained wildly inconsistent. Take the 01/31 vs MIA matchup, where he managed 21 points and 8 rebounds but posted a dismal -7.0 Impact score. Those counting stats masked the hidden costs of his floor time, as defensive breakdowns and poor rotational awareness severely dragged down his actual value. Conversely, he found ways to contribute on nights when his offense abandoned him entirely. During the 01/17 vs BKN game, Buzelis struggled to a low-scoring 15 points on an ugly 4-of-15 from the field, but he still scraped together a +6.9 Impact score through relentless hustle plays and 6 hard-fought rebounds. He is evolving into a dangerous, albeit erratic, weapon who simply needs to iron out his nightly focus.

This late-season stretch was defined by wild, high-variance scoring swings that revealed a young forward discovering his offensive ceiling while battling erratic shot selection. When his jumper fell, he looked absolutely unstoppable. He peaked during a marathon 45-minute effort on 03/10 vs GSW, pouring in 41 points on 16-of-28 shooting to generate a staggering +35.0 Impact. That massive rating stemmed directly from his willingness to aggressively attack the interior rather than settle, converting at a high clip inside the arc. Conversely, his cold nights were punishingly bad. On 02/19 vs TOR, he managed just 4 points on 2-of-10 shooting, yielding a dismal -17.7 Impact because his refusal to stop forcing contested perimeter looks actively killed offensive momentum. Yet, he slowly learned how to salvage his value when the touch vanished entirely. On 04/10 vs ORL, Buzelis missed all nine of his three-point attempts but still scraped out a +0.9 Impact by crashing the glass for 8 rebounds and relying on pure defensive hustle to stay afloat.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Volatile for his role. Buzelis has noticeable ups and downs, with scoring moving ~7 points between games.

Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 49% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.

Defensive difference-maker. Buzelis consistently forces tough shots and protects the rim — opponents shoot worse when he's guarding them.

Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 15 games. Longest cold streak: 3 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 46 days ago

Based on 75 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

J. Johnson 92.4 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 60.0%
PPP 0.17
PTS 16
A. Wiggins 68.8 poss
FG% 36.4%
3P% 40.0%
PPP 0.15
PTS 10
A. Green 63.4 poss
FG% 54.5%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.21
PTS 13
M. Bridges 55.9 poss
FG% 9.1%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.05
PTS 3
S. Barnes 53.0 poss
FG% 20.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.04
PTS 2
P. Siakam 51.6 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.21
PTS 11
M. Bridges 51.3 poss
FG% 44.4%
3P% 60.0%
PPP 0.21
PTS 11
K. Knueppel 48.7 poss
FG% 38.5%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.27
PTS 13
A. Thompson 48.3 poss
FG% 71.4%
3P% 75.0%
PPP 0.29
PTS 14
J. Green 48.0 poss
FG% 42.9%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.15
PTS 7

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

M. Bridges 73.9 poss
FG% 53.3%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.32
PTS 24
B. Ingram 63.6 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.25
PTS 16
A. Green 61.9 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.19
PTS 12
A. Wiggins 60.0 poss
FG% 36.4%
3P% 42.9%
PPP 0.23
PTS 14
N. Clowney 56.9 poss
FG% 28.6%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.28
PTS 16
A. Thompson 56.0 poss
FG% 30.8%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.16
PTS 9
K. Durant 55.7 poss
FG% 63.2%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.5
PTS 28
F. Wagner 50.4 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.1
PTS 5
D. Wolf 49.7 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.2
PTS 10
J. Green 49.5 poss
FG% 20.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.04
PTS 2

SEASON STATS

77
Games
16.3
PPG
5.8
RPG
2.1
APG
0.7
SPG
1.5
BPG
46.3
FG%
34.9
3P%
78.6
FT%
29.2
MPG

GAME LOG

77 games played