SAC

2025-26 Season

KILLIAN HAYES

Sacramento Kings | Guard | 6-4
Killian Hayes
5.5PPG
2.3RPG
3.5APG
17.6MPG
-7.7 Impact

Hayes produces at an poor rate for a 18-minute workload.

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IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
-7.7
Scoring +3.8
Points Scored 5.5 PPG = +5.5
Missed Shots difficulty-adjusted = -3.0
Shot Making above expected FG% = +1.3
Creation +0.7
Assists & Self-Creation 3.5 AST/g + self-creation = +0.7
Turnovers -2.9
Turnovers 1.2/g (live + dead blend) = -2.9
Defense +1.0
Steals 0.9/g = +2.1
Blocks 0.2/g = +0.2
Fouls + context committed fouls, matchup adj = -1.3
Hustle & Effort +1.0
Rebounds 2.3 RPG (OREB + DREB) = -0.6
Contested Shots 1.8/g = +0.4
Deflections 1.4/g = +0.9
Charges Drawn 0.0/g = +0.1
Loose Balls 0.2/g = +0.1
Screen Assists 0.2/g = +0.1
Raw Impact +3.6
Baseline (game-average expected) −11.3
Net Impact
-7.7
3th pctl vs Guards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 246 Guards with 10+ games

Scoring 18th
5.8 PPG
Efficiency 2th
38.1% TS
Playmaking 69th
3.6 APG
Rebounding 37th
2.5 RPG
Defense 51th
+7.3/g
Hustle 2th
+2.8/g
Creation 12th
+1.52/g
Shot Making 21th
+4.52/g
TO Discipline 29th
0.07/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

An offensive black hole and a brutal shooting slump defined Killian Hayes's first eight games of the season. The nightmare began on 02/23 vs MEM, where he went scoreless on 0-for-4 shooting and posted a disastrous -19.5 Impact score. Things somehow looked bleaker on 02/25 vs HOU as he forced up a 1-for-9 brickfest, dragging his Impact down to -10.4 due to abysmal shot selection and countless empty possessions. Even when he managed to distribute the ball, his inability to hit basic jumpers made him a liability that crippled second-unit spacing. He finally broke through the negativity on 03/10 vs IND with a +1.2 Impact score. Though he only scored 8 points on 2-for-7 shooting in that contest, his season-high 23 minutes yielded enough rebounding and playmaking value to finally tilt the scales in a positive direction. Still, this brutal stretch of basketball confirms that Hayes remains a severe offensive project who cannot survive on the floor without a reliable jumper.

Killian Hayes spent this eight-game stretch caught in a brutal identity crisis, bouncing erratically between spot starts and absolute bench exile. The lowest point of his offensive struggles arrived on 03/19 vs PHI. He forced up terrible looks to finish 3-for-12 from the floor, resulting in a dismal -12.2 impact score. Even when his shot actually fell, the underlying metrics rejected his performance. During a spot start on 03/15 vs UTA, Hayes poured in 16 points and hit four threes, yet still recorded a -2.1 impact because his empty scoring lacked the necessary game control to actually drive winning basketball. By the time he logged a ghost-like two minutes on 03/26 vs ORL, yielding a -10.4 impact, his role had completely evaporated. He simply bled value every time he touched the hardwood.

This seven-game stretch was defined by brutal offensive inefficiency, punctuated by a single, bizarrely competent scoring outburst. During the 03/29 vs BKN matchup, Hayes posted a dismal -15.9 Impact score, dragging down the second unit with an abysmal 0-for-5 shooting night that completely negated his seven assists. The bricklaying continued on 04/03 vs NOP, where his erratic shot selection devolved into a 1-for-8 mess from the floor, resulting in a -10.4 Impact rating. Then, completely out of nowhere, he caught fire on 04/07 vs GSW. Logging 32 minutes off the bench, Hayes poured in 18 points on 6-of-13 shooting, generating a +9.5 Impact mark because he finally forced the defense to respect his perimeter stroke. Naturally, the regression was immediate. He failed to hit a single field goal on 04/10 vs GSW, reminding everyone exactly why his nightly role remains so fragile.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Struggling. Hayes has posted negative impact in 91% of games this season. The production rarely outweighs the cost.

Streaky shooter — only cracks 45% from the field in 31% of games. Efficiency is all over the place night-to-night.

Average defender. Hayes doesn't hurt you defensively, but he's not making opponents uncomfortable either.

Slight upward trend. First-half impact: -8.9, second-half: -6.6. Modest improvement — possibly settling into a rhythm.

Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 1 games. Longest cold streak: 12 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 46 days ago

Based on 18 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

L. Ball 38.4 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.08
PTS 3
J. Fears 27.0 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.19
PTS 5
I. Collier 18.1 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.17
PTS 3
B. Sheppard 16.2 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
B. Mbeng 15.3 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.2
PTS 3
G. Vincent 15.0 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.2
PTS 3
D. Harper 15.0 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.13
PTS 2
R. Sheppard 14.1 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.21
PTS 3
C. Payne 12.9 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.31
PTS 4
B. Williams 12.8 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

L. Ball 28.4 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 57.1%
PPP 0.42
PTS 12
I. Collier 24.2 poss
FG% 30.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.25
PTS 6
J. Fears 21.7 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.14
PTS 3
G. Vincent 17.5 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
E. Harkless 16.3 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.37
PTS 6
R. Sheppard 15.4 poss
FG% 30.0%
3P% 28.6%
PPP 0.52
PTS 8
B. Mbeng 14.3 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
C. Payne 12.8 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
D. Harper 12.6 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.63
PTS 8
K. Jones 10.7 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.19
PTS 2

SEASON STATS

23
Games
5.5
PPG
2.3
RPG
3.5
APG
0.9
SPG
0.2
BPG
30.4
FG%
27.0
3P%
92.9
FT%
17.6
MPG

GAME LOG

23 games played