MIA

2025-26 Season

PELLE LARSSON

Miami Heat | Guard | 6-5
Pelle Larsson
11.3 PPG
3.5 RPG
3.4 APG
26.4 MPG
-0.8 Impact

Larsson produces at an average rate for a 26-minute workload.

NET IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
-0.8
Scoring +7.4
Points 11.3 PPG × +1.00 = +11.3
Missed 2PT 2.1/g × -0.78 = -1.6
Missed 3PT 1.8/g × -0.87 = -1.6
Missed FT 0.7/g × -1.00 = -0.7
Creation +2.8
Assists 3.4/g × +0.50 = +1.7
Off. Rebounds 0.9/g × +1.26 = +1.1
Turnovers -2.7
Turnovers 1.4/g × -1.95 = -2.7
Defense +0.7
Steals 0.7/g × +2.30 = +1.6
Blocks 0.2/g × +0.90 = +0.2
Def. Rebounds 2.6/g × +0.30 = +0.8
Fouls Committed 2.5/g × -0.75 = -1.9
Hustle & Effort +3.6
Contested Shots 4.7/g × +0.20 = +0.9
Deflections 1.7/g × +0.65 = +1.1
Charges Drawn 0.2/g × +2.70 = +0.5
Loose Balls 0.2/g × +0.60 = +0.1
Screen Assists 0.2/g × +0.30 = +0.1
Off. Fouls Drawn 0.3/g uncredited × +2.70 = +0.9
Raw Impact +11.8
Baseline (game-average expected) −12.6
Net Impact
-0.8
57th pctl vs Guards

About this model: Net Impact can't measure floor spacing, help defense rotations, or playmaking gravity — so wings and guards are slightly undervalued vs bigs. How Net Impact works

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 235 Guards with 10+ games

Scoring 60th
11.6 PPG
Efficiency 85th
60.2% TS
Playmaking 66th
3.5 APG
Rebounding 67th
3.6 RPG
Rim Protection 40th
0.11/min
Hustle 86th
0.14/min
Shot Creation 50th
0% pullup
TO Discipline 56th
0.05/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

Pelle Larsson’s opening stretch of the season was defined by extreme volatility as he wrestled with the heavy demands of a starting role. When his offensive execution was crisp, he looked like a brilliant rotational piece, carving up the defense on 11/21 vs CHI for a massive +7.0 impact score fueled by pristine shot selection and efficient orchestration. However, his value routinely collapsed when his spatial awareness vanished. During 11/10 vs CLE, he managed 10 points but bled out a catastrophic -12.4 impact score because he repeatedly lost his man on backdoor cuts. Conversely, he occasionally salvaged his floor value without scoring much at all. On 11/03 vs LAC, he generated a +0.8 impact score despite scoring just seven points, leaning entirely on relentless energy plays and high-level defensive engagement to stay out of the red. Ultimately, Larsson must eradicate these wild swings in focus to survive in this rotation.

A chaotic pendulum swing between brilliant connective play and absolute offensive passivity defined this maddening stretch for Pelle Larsson. When he actively picked his spots and moved off the ball, the results were staggering. This peak was perfectly captured on 12/26 vs ATL, when he poured in 21 points on 9-of-13 shooting to drive a massive +13.7 impact score. Yet, he frequently sabotaged his own value even when the raw point totals looked respectable. Look no further than 01/17 vs OKC, where his 16 points were completely undone by poor perimeter execution and defensive lapses, dragging him down to a damaging -7.3 impact. His tendency to vanish offensively was simply baffling. On 01/13 vs PHX, extreme passivity led him to attempt just one field goal in 27 minutes, torpedoing his value with a -8.7 impact score because he entirely refused to pressure the rim.

Pelle Larsson’s midseason stretch was defined by maddening volatility. He swung wildly between hyper-efficient offensive masterclasses and staggering disappearing acts. He opened this run looking like an elite two-way wing, torching the defense on 01/30 vs CHI with 22 points on 7-of-11 shooting to post a massive +19.4 impact score. However, that surgical precision routinely vanished. Hidden mistakes absolutely cratered his value even when his point totals looked respectable, as seen on 03/05 vs BKN. Despite scoring 16 points, he registered a dismal -7.7 impact score because sloppy ball-handling and forced passes into traffic ruined the offensive flow. Just a week later, he flipped the script again on 03/12 vs MIL, exploding for 28 points and a +14.8 impact mark fueled by a relentless motor. When his perimeter shot abandoned him—like during a brutal -12.4 impact showing on 02/21 vs MEM where he bricked all four of his threes—his overall effectiveness simply collapsed.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Boom-or-bust player. Larsson's impact swings wildly relative to his average — some nights dominant, others invisible. Scoring varies by ~6 points per game.

Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 58% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.

Defensive difference-maker. Larsson consistently forces tough shots and protects the rim — opponents shoot worse when he's guarding them.

Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 3 games. Longest cold streak: 9 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY

Based on 71 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

D. Bane 81.5 poss
FG% 44.4%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.13
PTS 11
M. Bridges 60.1 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.12
PTS 7
D. Mitchell 56.5 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.12
PTS 7
FG% 40.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.21
PTS 11
T. Maxey 51.1 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.14
PTS 7
A. Dosunmu 48.3 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.12
PTS 6
J. Johnson 45.4 poss
FG% 85.7%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.29
PTS 13
L. Dončić 44.5 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.13
PTS 6
C. Flagg 43.9 poss
FG% 62.5%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.3
PTS 13
S. Sharpe 41.6 poss
FG% 75.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.14
PTS 6

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

D. Bane 71.2 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.1
PTS 7
N. Clowney 54.8 poss
FG% 75.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.18
PTS 10
K. Knueppel 49.5 poss
FG% 62.5%
3P% 60.0%
PPP 0.28
PTS 14
C. Flagg 45.9 poss
FG% 45.5%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.26
PTS 12
J. Johnson 44.5 poss
FG% 57.1%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.2
PTS 9
D. Mitchell 43.3 poss
FG% 44.4%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.25
PTS 11
C. White 43.1 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.23
PTS 10
G. Allen 43.0 poss
FG% 45.5%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.33
PTS 14
A. Dosunmu 42.9 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.14
PTS 6
S. Sharpe 42.6 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0

SEASON STATS

66
Games
11.3
PPG
3.5
RPG
3.4
APG
0.7
SPG
0.2
BPG
49.8
FG%
32.6
3P%
79.5
FT%
26.4
MPG

GAME LOG

66 games played