MIA

2025-26 Season

NIKOLA JOVIĆ

Miami Heat | Forward | 6-10
Nikola Jović
7.4 PPG
3.3 RPG
2.2 APG
17.3 MPG
-3.2 Impact

Jović produces at an below average rate for a 17-minute workload.

NET IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
-3.2
Scoring +3.1
Points 7.4 PPG × +1.00 = +7.4
Missed 2PT 1.7/g × -0.78 = -1.3
Missed 3PT 2.6/g × -0.87 = -2.3
Missed FT 0.7/g × -1.00 = -0.7
Creation +2.1
Assists 2.2/g × +0.50 = +1.1
Off. Rebounds 0.8/g × +1.26 = +1.0
Turnovers -2.7
Turnovers 1.4/g × -1.95 = -2.7
Defense +0.6
Steals 0.6/g × +2.30 = +1.4
Blocks 0.4/g × +0.90 = +0.4
Def. Rebounds 2.5/g × +0.30 = +0.7
Fouls Committed 2.5/g × -0.75 = -1.9
Hustle & Effort +1.6
Contested Shots 4.2/g × +0.20 = +0.8
Deflections 0.9/g × +0.65 = +0.6
Loose Balls 0.2/g × +0.60 = +0.1
Screen Assists 0.2/g × +0.30 = +0.1
Raw Impact +4.7
Baseline (game-average expected) −7.9
Net Impact
-3.2
10th pctl vs Forwards

About this model: Net Impact can't measure floor spacing, help defense rotations, or playmaking gravity — so wings and guards are slightly undervalued vs bigs. How Net Impact works

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 227 Forwards with 10+ games

Scoring 44th
8.2 PPG
Efficiency 6th
44.2% TS
Playmaking 70th
2.4 APG
Rebounding 40th
3.7 RPG
Rim Protection 76th
0.18/min
Hustle 33th
0.09/min
Shot Creation 50th
0% pullup
TO Discipline 8th
0.08/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

A maddening lack of discipline defined Nikola Jović's early season, turning him into a volatile bench piece who hijacked possessions just as often as he rescued them. Even when his scoring numbers looked acceptable, hidden costs frequently dragged him down. Take the 12/06 vs SAC matchup. He tallied 12 points, yet posted a brutal -9.6 impact score because careless ball security and forced passes into tight windows completely cratered the offense. Conversely, he occasionally found ways to tilt the floor without dominating the ball. During the 11/07 vs CHA contest, Jović scored just 10 points but generated a massive +8.2 impact by executing flawless weak-side rotations and anchoring the unit with timely helpside defense. When he actually played to his size and hunted smart shots, his ceiling was undeniable, peaking during a 29-point outburst on 11/08 vs POR (+8.0 impact) where he ruthlessly exploited post mismatches. Until he stops settling for contested jumpers early in the clock, Jović will remain a frustrating gamble rather than a reliable rotation fixture.

A miserable, prolonged shooting slump defined Nikola Jović’s mid-season stretch, turning him into a glaring offensive liability off the bench. The dysfunction started immediately on 01/01 vs DET. He settled for heavily contested deep looks, shooting a dreadful 1-for-10 from the floor to post a disastrous -10.7 impact score. He briefly flipped the script on 01/04 vs NOP, racking up 19 points and generating a massive +12.7 impact score by wreaking havoc as a help-side defensive disruptor. Unfortunately, those two-way flashes were rare anomalies buried under a mountain of forced perimeter shots. Look no further than his scoreless outing on 02/06 vs BOS. His habit of launching deep, early-clock threes completely derailed offensive momentum, dragging his impact score down to -4.3. Until he stops short-circuiting possessions with rushed mechanics and poor spatial awareness, his overall value will remain severely capped.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Inconsistent. Jović has clear good-night/bad-night splits, with scoring swinging ~7 points between games. You're never quite sure which version shows up.

Streaky shooter — only cracks 45% from the field in 28% of games. Efficiency is all over the place night-to-night.

Defensive difference-maker. Jović consistently forces tough shots and protects the rim — opponents shoot worse when he's guarding them.

In a rough stretch — 4 straight games with negative impact. Longest cold streak this season: 10 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY

Based on 68 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

N. Reid 59.2 poss
FG% 20.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.08
PTS 5
P. Banchero 46.5 poss
FG% 20.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.06
PTS 3
B. Brown 23.3 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
J. Johnson 22.0 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.27
PTS 6
J. Walker 21.4 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.42
PTS 9
M. Buzelis 20.5 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.2
PTS 4
R. Williams III 19.3 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.26
PTS 5
J. Hart 19.3 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.16
PTS 3
D. Avdija 18.4 poss
FG% 75.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.33
PTS 6
R. Westbrook 17.2 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

N. Reid 51.9 poss
FG% 53.3%
3P% 40.0%
PPP 0.35
PTS 18
J. Hart 28.2 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.07
PTS 2
P. Banchero 23.4 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.26
PTS 6
W. Carter Jr. 21.1 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.19
PTS 4
R. Williams III 18.6 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
Y. Missi 18.0 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.11
PTS 2
M. Bridges 17.7 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.23
PTS 4
M. Diabaté 16.9 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.36
PTS 6
B. Brown 16.7 poss
FG% 75.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.36
PTS 6
J. Randle 16.5 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.18
PTS 3

SEASON STATS

46
Games
7.4
PPG
3.3
RPG
2.2
APG
0.6
SPG
0.4
BPG
36.7
FG%
27.0
3P%
68.3
FT%
17.3
MPG

GAME LOG

46 games played