MIA

2025-26 Season

NIKOLA JOVIĆ

Miami Heat | Forward | 6-10
Nikola Jović
7.3PPG
3.3RPG
2.2APG
17.2MPG
-6.2 Impact

Jović produces at an poor rate for a 17-minute workload.

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IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
-6.2
Scoring +5.4
Points Scored 7.3 PPG = +7.3
Missed Shots difficulty-adjusted = -3.5
Shot Making above expected FG% = +1.6
Creation +0.4
Assists & Self-Creation 2.2 AST/g + self-creation = +0.4
Turnovers -3.2
Turnovers 1.4/g (live + dead blend) = -3.2
Defense +0.2
Steals 0.6/g = +1.4
Blocks 0.4/g = +0.4
Fouls + context committed fouls, matchup adj = -1.6
Hustle & Effort +2.3
Rebounds 3.3 RPG (OREB + DREB) = +0.6
Contested Shots 4.1/g = +0.8
Deflections 0.9/g = +0.6
Charges Drawn 0.0/g = +0.1
Loose Balls 0.2/g = +0.1
Screen Assists 0.2/g = +0.1
Raw Impact +5.1
Baseline (game-average expected) −11.3
Net Impact
-6.2
7th pctl vs Forwards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 235 Forwards with 10+ games

Scoring 44th
8.1 PPG
Efficiency 4th
44.1% TS
Playmaking 71th
2.4 APG
Rebounding 40th
3.6 RPG
Defense 67th
+8.1/g
Hustle 32th
+10.2/g
Creation 26th
+1.76/g
Shot Making 53th
+6.03/g
TO Discipline 8th
0.08/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

Nikola Jović’s start to the 2025-26 season was defined by an immediate demotion to the second unit and maddening offensive volatility. He occasionally caught fire as a primary option, erupting for 29 points, nine boards, and six assists on 11/09 vs POR to earn a +11.6 Impact score through brilliant, aggressive shot-making. Yet, those outbursts were exceptions to a grim rule. Far too often, his erratic shot selection and clunky execution tanked his overall value on the floor. During his 11/13 vs CLE appearance, Jović managed just two points on 1-for-6 shooting, resulting in a disastrous -16.5 Impact score as his forced jumpers actively killed offensive momentum. He did occasionally find ways to help the team survive despite quiet scoring nights. On 10/28 vs CHA, he tallied a modest 10 points but still generated a +6.0 Impact score by taking smart, efficient shots and battling for six crucial rebounds. To survive in this rotation, he must stop swinging wildly between bench savior and outright offensive liability.

Nikola Jović’s mid-season stretch was defined by a maddening pendulum swing between dynamic scoring bursts and crippling shooting slumps. When his perimeter stroke was actually falling, he looked like a genuine difference-maker off the bench. Look at the 12/30 vs DEN matchup, where he caught fire for 22 points on five made threes to generate a stellar +13.1 Impact score. Yet, decent raw point totals often masked deeper inefficiencies in his floor game. During the 12/07 vs SAC contest, he managed a respectable 12 points and six assists, but a miserable -12.3 Impact score exposed the hidden costs of his inefficient 4-for-10 shooting and empty trips down the floor. The bottom completely fell out shortly after his brief holiday surge. Facing 01/02 vs DET, Jović chucked his way to a brutal 1-for-10 shooting night, earning a -12.7 Impact score as his disastrous shot selection actively killed the second unit's momentum.

A severe offensive slump and evaporating minutes defined this brutal stretch for Nikola Jović. He briefly flashed his ceiling on 01/25 vs UTA, pouring in 23 points on 6-of-12 shooting to generate a stellar +11.2 Impact score. That rare positive mark stemmed entirely from his aggressive, efficient shot selection rather than his usual erratic chucking. Unfortunately, that rhythm vanished almost immediately. The regression culminated in an abysmal 02/06 vs BOS appearance where he went scoreless on 0-of-5 shooting in just six minutes. Missing four three-pointers in such a tight window completely torpedoed the offense, resulting in a -12.7 Impact score as his forced attempts actively hurt the team. Things hit rock bottom on 03/21 vs HOU, yielding a disastrous -16.9 Impact score in a mere four minutes of action. When his outside shot abandons him, Jović simply doesn't offer enough secondary playmaking or defensive resistance to survive on an NBA floor.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Struggling. Jović has posted negative impact in 77% of games this season. The production rarely outweighs the cost.

Streaky shooter — only cracks 45% from the field in 27% of games. Efficiency is all over the place night-to-night.

Defensive difference-maker. Jović consistently forces tough shots and protects the rim — opponents shoot worse when he's guarding them.

In a rough stretch — 11 straight games with negative impact. Longest cold streak this season: 11 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 46 days ago

Based on 68 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

N. Reid 59.2 poss
FG% 20.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.08
PTS 5
P. Banchero 46.5 poss
FG% 20.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.06
PTS 3
B. Brown 23.3 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
J. Johnson 22.0 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.27
PTS 6
J. Walker 21.4 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.42
PTS 9
M. Buzelis 20.5 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.2
PTS 4
R. Williams III 19.3 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.26
PTS 5
J. Hart 19.3 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.16
PTS 3
D. Avdija 18.4 poss
FG% 75.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.33
PTS 6
R. Westbrook 17.2 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

N. Reid 51.9 poss
FG% 53.3%
3P% 40.0%
PPP 0.35
PTS 18
J. Hart 28.2 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.07
PTS 2
P. Banchero 23.4 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.26
PTS 6
W. Carter Jr. 21.1 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.19
PTS 4
R. Williams III 18.6 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
Y. Missi 18.0 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.11
PTS 2
M. Bridges 17.7 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.23
PTS 4
M. Diabaté 16.9 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.36
PTS 6
B. Brown 16.7 poss
FG% 75.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.36
PTS 6
J. Randle 16.5 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.18
PTS 3

SEASON STATS

47
Games
7.3
PPG
3.3
RPG
2.2
APG
0.6
SPG
0.4
BPG
36.6
FG%
26.9
3P%
68.3
FT%
17.2
MPG

GAME LOG

47 games played