MIA

2025-26 Season

TYLER HERRO

Miami Heat | Guard | 6-5
Tyler Herro
20.6PPG
4.7RPG
4.2APG
31.4MPG
+8.0 Impact

Herro produces at an elite rate for a 31-minute workload.

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IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
+8.0
Scoring +19.6
Points Scored 20.6 PPG = +20.6
Missed Shots difficulty-adjusted = -6.0
Shot Making above expected FG% = +5.0
Creation +1.3
Assists & Self-Creation 4.2 AST/g + self-creation = +1.3
Turnovers -4.3
Turnovers 1.9/g (live + dead blend) = -4.3
Defense -0.2
Steals 0.7/g = +1.6
Blocks 0.4/g = +0.4
Fouls + context committed fouls, matchup adj = -2.2
Hustle & Effort +2.7
Rebounds 4.7 RPG (OREB + DREB) = +1.2
Contested Shots 2.9/g = +0.6
Deflections 1.1/g = +0.7
Charges Drawn 0.0/g = +0.0
Loose Balls 0.3/g = +0.2
Screen Assists 0.0/g = +0.0
Raw Impact +19.1
Baseline (game-average expected) −11.1
Net Impact
+8.0
88th pctl vs Guards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 246 Guards with 10+ games

Scoring 93th
20.6 PPG
Efficiency 89th
59.9% TS
Playmaking 79th
4.2 APG
Rebounding 86th
4.7 RPG
Defense 41th
+6.8/g
Hustle 53th
+9.2/g
Creation 66th
+3.30/g
Shot Making 88th
+9.45/g
TO Discipline 40th
0.06/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

Tyler Herro opened the 2025-26 campaign as a relentless offensive engine, though his scoring binges often masked a volatile overall floor game. His absolute peak arrived on 11/27 vs MIL, where he torched the defense for 29 points and seven assists on elite 9-for-15 shooting to generate a massive +27.7 Impact score. That stellar rating stemmed from brilliant shot selection and active playmaking rather than just hunting contested perimeter looks. However, his production sometimes carried hidden costs, which became glaringly obvious during a 24-point outing on 11/30 vs DET. Despite hitting six threes in that contest, his overall 6-for-17 shooting and poor defensive rotations dragged his Impact down to a mediocre +4.5. The empty calories caught up to him completely on 01/12 vs OKC. Even though he efficiently dropped 19 points in that matchup, a total lack of rebounding and defensive resistance resulted in a -1.6 Impact score, revealing that Herro's pure scoring alone cannot always hide his fundamental shortcomings.

A mid-season promotion to the starting lineup completely salvaged this stretch for Tyler Herro, flipping him from an erratic bench chucker into a lethal primary option. Before the role change, his brutal shot selection actively hurt his squad, which was glaringly obvious on 02/24 vs MIL when a dismal 5-for-17 shooting night yielded a -7.2 Impact score. Moving into the first unit fixed his rhythm almost immediately. He absolutely erupted on 03/06 vs CHA, torching the nets for 33 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists. That hyper-efficient offensive execution and crisp playmaking earned him a massive +27.9 Impact score. However, his shot-hunting tendencies eventually resurfaced to drag down his overall value by the end of the window. On 03/19 vs LAL, Herro managed 21 points, but his inefficient 8-for-19 shooting created a -5.0 Impact score, revealing the hidden costs of his empty-calorie volume.

Tyler Herro spent this late-season stretch oscillating wildly between carrying the offense and actively shooting his team out of games. When his jumper was falling, he looked like an unstoppable primary option. He erupted for 31 points on 12-for-22 shooting during the 03/29 vs IND matchup, generating a massive +24.9 impact score through sheer shot-making. But that offensive brilliance vanished quickly when his touch abandoned him. During the 04/01 vs BOS contest, Herro forced up heavily contested looks, needing 15 field goal attempts to score 18 points, which resulted in a brutal -10.1 impact score. He tried to pivot into a facilitator role during the 04/12 vs ATL game, grabbing 10 rebounds and dishing 8 assists. Despite that well-rounded effort, his broken jumper—yielding just 5 points on 2-for-9 shooting—carried hidden offensive costs that dragged his overall impact down to -9.6. He remains a dangerous weapon, but his overall effectiveness is still entirely hostage to his shot selection.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Volatile for his role. Herro has noticeable ups and downs, with scoring moving ~6 points between games.

Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 65% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.

Average defender. Herro doesn't hurt you defensively, but he's not making opponents uncomfortable either.

Small downward trend. First-half impact: +9.4, second-half: +6.6. Not alarming yet, but trending the wrong direction.

Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 8 games. Longest cold streak: 2 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 46 days ago

Based on 46 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

A. Nembhard 79.4 poss
FG% 41.7%
3P% 42.9%
PPP 0.16
PTS 13
A. Thompson 71.6 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 20.0%
PPP 0.18
PTS 13
M. Christie 57.0 poss
FG% 53.8%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.25
PTS 14
V. Edgecombe 53.3 poss
FG% 46.7%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.32
PTS 17
T. Mann 51.4 poss
FG% 53.8%
3P% 20.0%
PPP 0.31
PTS 16
B. Miller 49.6 poss
FG% 62.5%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.28
PTS 14
S. Merrill 42.9 poss
FG% 20.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.09
PTS 4
J. Suggs 41.2 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.22
PTS 9
J. Green 35.2 poss
FG% 37.5%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.34
PTS 12
A. Black 33.5 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.06
PTS 2

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

T. Mann 63.5 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.08
PTS 5
M. Christie 49.2 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.14
PTS 7
S. Merrill 43.6 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 40.0%
PPP 0.23
PTS 10
D. Robinson 42.9 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.12
PTS 5
T. Eason 37.3 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
J. Suggs 34.9 poss
FG% 62.5%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.34
PTS 12
B. Sheppard 31.7 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
V. Edgecombe 31.3 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.19
PTS 6
M. Smart 31.1 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.23
PTS 7
T. da Silva 29.6 poss
FG% 75.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.24
PTS 7

SEASON STATS

34
Games
20.6
PPG
4.7
RPG
4.2
APG
0.7
SPG
0.4
BPG
47.7
FG%
38.2
3P%
92.1
FT%
31.4
MPG

GAME LOG

34 games played