DEN

2025-26 Season

KJ SIMPSON

Denver Nuggets | Guard | 6-2
KJ Simpson
4.5PPG
1.9RPG
2.1APG
12.9MPG
-6.7 Impact

Simpson produces at an poor rate for a 13-minute workload.

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IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
-6.7
Scoring +3.1
Points Scored 4.5 PPG = +4.5
Missed Shots difficulty-adjusted = -2.5
Shot Making above expected FG% = +1.1
Creation +0.4
Assists & Self-Creation 2.1 AST/g + self-creation = +0.4
Turnovers -2.9
Turnovers 1.2/g (live + dead blend) = -2.9
Defense +1.2
Steals 0.8/g = +1.8
Blocks 0.0/g = +0.0
Fouls + context committed fouls, matchup adj = -0.6
Hustle & Effort +1.5
Rebounds 1.9 RPG (OREB + DREB) = +0.1
Contested Shots 1.2/g = +0.2
Deflections 1.4/g = +0.9
Charges Drawn 0.1/g = +0.1
Loose Balls 0.2/g = +0.1
Screen Assists 0.2/g = +0.1
Raw Impact +3.3
Baseline (game-average expected) −10.0
Net Impact
-6.7
8th pctl vs Guards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 246 Guards with 10+ games

Scoring 21th
6.0 PPG
Efficiency 12th
46.4% TS
Playmaking 55th
2.8 APG
Rebounding 34th
2.4 RPG
Defense 82th
+10.3/g
Hustle 15th
+5.4/g
Creation 4th
+0.96/g
Shot Making 15th
+4.12/g
TO Discipline 9th
0.10/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

A brutal struggle to justify rotation minutes defined KJ Simpson's early campaign, as he bled value every time he stepped on the hardwood. Even when his counting stats looked passable, hidden costs dragged him down. Take the 11/11 vs LAL matchup, where he tallied 8 points and 4 assists in 20 minutes. Despite hitting a pair of threes, his overall floor game was a disaster, resulting in a dismal -12.9 Impact score. His shot selection completely unraveled on 11/16 vs OKC, where he forced up 13 field goal attempts just to scrape together a stretch-high 9 points, earning a -3.4 Impact mark for his wildly inefficient gunning. The bottom completely fell out during the 11/20 vs IND contest. He was pulled after just 3 minutes, leaving him with a staggering -13.2 Impact score and a stat line of absolute zeros.

KJ Simpson’s mid-winter stretch was defined by a fleeting promotion to the starting lineup sandwiched between brutal stints of inefficient reserve play. Given a starting nod on 12/07 vs DEN, he poured in a stretch-high 16 points and grabbed five rebounds to generate a +7.8 Impact score. While he needed 14 shot attempts to reach that point total, his active work on the glass kept his overall value firmly in the green. Unfortunately, a return to the bench the following week triggered an immediate regression in his offensive discipline. On 12/14 vs CLE, Simpson forced terrible looks against the defense. He hoisted nine shots to score just six points, plummeting to a miserable -10.6 Impact score as his poor shot selection actively stalled out the second unit. That erratic decision-making carried over into a disastrous 2-for-7 shooting night on 12/19 vs ATL, where his abysmal -12.4 Impact score highlighted the steep cost of a reserve guard forcing up bad shots.

This six-game stretch was defined by deep-bench irrelevance and an agonizing inability to capitalize on garbage-time minutes. Given a rare extended look on 02/25 vs BOS, Simpson managed just 2 points on 1-for-5 shooting across 14 minutes, resulting in a -0.3 impact score. Things rapidly deteriorated from there. He bottomed out during a brutal two-minute cameo on 04/01 vs UTA, posting an abysmal -13.8 impact score. When a guard bleeds that much value in just 120 seconds, it points directly to blown defensive rotations, poor spacing, and rushed shot selection. He offered zero redemption on 04/08 vs MEM, logging a staggering -12.7 impact in merely three minutes. You simply cannot survive on an NBA roster when your brief moments on the hardwood actively sabotage the team.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Struggling. Simpson has posted negative impact in 90% of games this season. The production rarely outweighs the cost.

Streaky shooter — only cracks 45% from the field in 20% of games. Efficiency is all over the place night-to-night.

Good defender on his best nights, but it comes and goes. Some games Simpson locks in defensively, others he gets picked apart.

Slight upward trend. First-half impact: -7.8, second-half: -5.6. Modest improvement — possibly settling into a rhythm.

In a rough stretch — 8 straight games with negative impact. Longest cold streak this season: 10 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 46 days ago

Based on 20 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

P. Pritchard 18.4 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
M. Smart 17.5 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
I. Quickley 16.4 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
J. Giddey 12.0 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.5
PTS 6
K. Wallace 12.0 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
V. Krejčí 11.8 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.34
PTS 4
J. Murray 11.5 poss
FG% 75.0%
3P% 66.7%
PPP 0.7
PTS 8
J. Tyson 10.7 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.56
PTS 6
J. Shead 10.7 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
W. Clayton Jr. 10.5 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.19
PTS 2

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

I. Quickley 18.5 poss
FG% 80.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.54
PTS 10
J. Shead 17.2 poss
FG% 42.9%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.41
PTS 7
P. Pritchard 16.3 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
P. Watson 15.8 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.13
PTS 2
K. Wallace 15.4 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.32
PTS 5
M. Smart 14.9 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
V. Krejčí 13.8 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.22
PTS 3
W. Clayton Jr. 13.3 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
C. White 12.2 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.16
PTS 2
S. Jones 11.7 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0

SEASON STATS

20
Games
4.5
PPG
1.9
RPG
2.1
APG
0.8
SPG
0.0
BPG
34.3
FG%
30.0
3P%
61.1
FT%
12.9
MPG

GAME LOG

20 games played