Portland / 2026-27 / preseason snapshot
The expectation.
The evidence.
The update.
45–37Expected final record
0–0Confirmed regular-season record
44.6Expected remaining wins
Source cutoff: 2026-10-10 · Version: independent-basketball-v2-2026-10-10
Independent model with analyst roster and health assumptions. Season-total simulation tails are unvalidated. Preseason results do not count toward the record.
What changed?
+0.00 expected wins since the previous published update.
+0.00 expected wins versus the original October 10 projection.
No postgame update has been published. The original October 10 assumptions remain in effect.
The range of possibilities
32–57 wins.
Central 80% simulation range. Median: 45 wins.
04182 wins
All 82 regular-season slots.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Phoenix | Home | 61.2% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-10-23 | Sacramento | Away | 62.0% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-10-27 | LA Lakers | Away | 49.1% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-10-29 | Memphis | Home | 68.8% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-10-31 | Utah | Away | 54.9% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-11-02 | Denver | Away | 40.1% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-11-04 | Phoenix | Away | 51.7% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-11-06 | LA Lakers | Away | 47.8% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-11-07 | San Antonio | Home | 45.1% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-11-10 | Oklahoma City | Home | 41.1% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-11-11 | Oklahoma City | Home | 41.1% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-11-13 | Sacramento | Away | 60.2% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-11-16 | Minnesota | Away | 47.1% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-11-17 | Minnesota | Away | 46.4% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-11-19 | Milwaukee | Away | 72.4% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-11-21 | New York | Away | 41.2% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-11-23 | Philadelphia | Away | 45.9% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-11-25 | San Antonio | Home | 44.7% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-11-27 | Golden State | Home | 62.3% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-11-29 | New Orleans | Home | 66.2% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-12-01 | Minnesota | Home | 56.8% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-12-03 | Utah | Home | 67.5% | Pending ↗ |
| None | NBA Cup-dependent opponent | TBD | 55.5% | Unplayed |
| None | NBA Cup-dependent opponent | TBD | 55.4% | Unplayed |
| 2026-12-12 | Atlanta | Home | 55.1% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-12-15 | Denver | Home | 53.0% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-12-17 | Indiana | Away | 57.1% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-12-19 | Charlotte | Away | 55.0% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-12-21 | Brooklyn | Away | 71.7% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-12-23 | Boston | Away | 37.3% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-12-26 | Washington | Away | 60.9% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-12-27 | Detroit | Away | 38.4% | Pending ↗ |
| 2026-12-29 | Brooklyn | Home | 73.4% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-01-02 | Boston | Home | 56.8% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-01-04 | New York | Home | 52.0% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-01-06 | New Orleans | Away | 57.3% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-01-07 | Dallas | Away | 44.3% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-01-09 | Charlotte | Home | 56.5% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-01-12 | Orlando | Home | 56.3% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-01-13 | LA Lakers | Home | 51.7% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-01-15 | Sacramento | Home | 77.7% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-01-17 | Oklahoma City | Away | 32.7% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-01-19 | Miami | Away | 43.2% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-01-20 | Atlanta | Away | 37.9% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-01-22 | Orlando | Away | 43.0% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-01-24 | San Antonio | Away | 36.7% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-01-26 | Washington | Home | 69.6% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-01-27 | Golden State | Home | 54.8% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-01-31 | Denver | Away | 50.8% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-02-02 | Minnesota | Home | 56.8% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-02-04 | Cleveland | Home | 62.3% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-02-06 | Memphis | Away | 60.2% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-02-08 | Memphis | Away | 62.1% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-02-09 | Oklahoma City | Away | 26.4% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-02-11 | Dallas | Away | 52.8% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-02-13 | Detroit | Home | 46.4% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-02-14 | Chicago | Home | 57.3% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-02-16 | New Orleans | Home | 67.2% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-02-18 | Indiana | Home | 67.6% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-02-26 | Dallas | Home | 70.7% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-02-28 | LA Clippers | Away | 56.6% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-03-02 | LA Clippers | Home | 68.0% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-03-04 | Cleveland | Away | 44.1% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-03-05 | Toronto | Away | 38.8% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-03-07 | Chicago | Away | 63.8% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-03-09 | Golden State | Away | 48.7% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-03-10 | Denver | Home | 46.9% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-03-13 | LA Clippers | Home | 69.6% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-03-16 | LA Lakers | Home | 60.9% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-03-17 | Miami | Home | 45.5% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-03-19 | Golden State | Away | 49.1% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-03-21 | Phoenix | Away | 51.7% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-03-23 | Toronto | Home | 55.5% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-03-26 | Philadelphia | Home | 59.7% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-03-27 | Milwaukee | Home | 77.1% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-03-30 | Houston | Home | 55.3% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-03-31 | Houston | Home | 54.2% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-04-02 | Utah | Home | 66.7% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-04-04 | Utah | Away | 58.3% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-04-07 | Dallas | Home | 72.0% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-04-09 | Houston | Away | 43.1% | Pending ↗ |
| 2027-04-11 | San Antonio | Away | 37.6% | Pending ↗ |
Assigned Cup games replace the original unknown slots. The Cup championship does not add an 83rd regular-season game.
A forecast with a memory.
Each update retains its assumptions and results cutoff. Compare them with the untouched original prediction.
| Published cutoff | Expected wins | Version |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | 44.61 | independent-basketball-v2-2026-10-10 |
How have the pregame predictions performed?
Awaiting regular-season results. A forecast cannot establish accuracy before its predicted games happen.