PORTLAND • 2026–27 • OCTOBER 10, 2026

An independent Blazers forecast

Every scheduled opponent. Every game. Basketball inputs before the season total.

44.6expected wins • approximately 45–37

51.0%probability of 45+ wins

32–57central 80% simulated win range

Record: 0–0. Model: independent-basketball-v2. Betting odds and market win totals are not inputs. Measured team performance is combined with explicit analyst projections for new rosters, availability and development.

The sum of the games

44.606 = 23.713 expected wins in 40 home games + 19.784 in 40 away games + 1.109 in two unassigned NBA Cup-dependent regular-season slots. These are probability sums, not a count of games where Portland is favored. The two unassigned slots use an opponent mixture and will be replaced when officially scheduled. The Cup championship is excluded.

The rounded estimate is 45–37. The median is 45 wins; the most frequent simulated total is 46. A better roster raises the mean but does not establish a floor at last year's 42 wins. Improvement, injury recovery and lineup fit can all disappoint together.

Threshold	Model probability
30+ wins	93.9%
35+ wins	84.9%
40+ wins	70.2%
45+ wins	51.0%
50+ wins	31.3%
55+ wins	15.5%

Month	Games	Expected wins
2026-10	5	2.96
2026-11	15	7.53
2026-12	13	7.37
2027-01	16	8.22
2027-02	12	6.86
2027-03	16	8.89
2027-04	5	2.78

200,000 seeded season simulations. Red bars cover the central 80% interval; the 95% interval is 26–63. These are model intervals, not empirically calibrated guarantees. Tenths of a percent are displayed for auditing, not practical betting precision.

All 82 forecast slots

Search by opponent, date or schedule note. Probabilities include shared season uncertainty. Positive margin favors Portland. Rest is the number of full days without a game; the opening-game value of six represents a long-rest bucket. Cup-dependent sequencing is flagged where unknown.

# / date

Game

Win chance

POR margin

Rest POR / opponent

Basketball and schedule assessment

1
2026-10-21

vs Phoenix

61.2%

+4.2

6 / 6

Booker actions test small guards; center availability changes rebounding.
No major schedule disadvantage

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+2.26
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.12
Matchup interaction	+0.06

Expected pace 100.0 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 1006 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-92 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

2
2026-10-23

@ Sacramento

62.0%

+4.5

1 / 1

Make Sabonis defend in space and limit handoff-generated shooting.
Recovery timing -0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+6.53
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	-0.43
Matchup interaction	+0.17

Expected pace 100.6 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.6 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 484 miles; opponent 364 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-103 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

3
2026-10-27

@ LA Lakers

49.1%

-0.3

3 / 1

Pre-switch guard mismatches against Doncic; attack non-Luka minutes.
Recovery timing -0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+1.76
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+0.48
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	-0.43
Matchup interaction	-0.32

Expected pace 100.3 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.6 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 362 miles; opponent 581 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-131 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

4
2026-10-29

vs Memphis

68.8%

+7.3

1 / 2

Limit Edey/Boozer second chances; pressure inexperienced creators.
Recovery timing -0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+5.99
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	-0.48
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	-0.43
Matchup interaction	+0.33

Expected pace 101.1 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.8 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 827 miles; opponent 635 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-146 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

5
2026-10-31

@ Utah

54.9%

+1.9

1 / 2

Jackson/Markkanen stretch frontcourt coverage; protect the rim.
Recovery timing -0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+4.71
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	-0.48
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	-0.30
Recovery timing	-0.43
Matchup interaction	+0.12

Expected pace 101.6 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.8 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 635 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-147 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

6
2026-11-02

@ Denver

40.1%

-3.7

1 / 2

Jokic passing punishes help; keep Clingan out of foul trouble.
Recovery timing -0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	-0.34
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	-0.48
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	-0.30
Recovery timing	-0.43
Matchup interaction	-0.36

Expected pace 100.4 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 371 miles; opponent 585 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-169 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

7
2026-11-04

@ Phoenix

51.7%

+0.6

1 / 1

Booker actions test small guards; center availability changes rebounding.
No major schedule disadvantage

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+2.26
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.12
Matchup interaction	+0.06

Expected pace 100.0 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 585 miles; opponent 653 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-183 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

8
2026-11-06

@ LA Lakers

47.8%

-0.8

1 / 1

Pre-switch guard mismatches against Doncic; attack non-Luka minutes.
Recovery timing -0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+1.76
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	-0.43
Matchup interaction	-0.32

Expected pace 100.3 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.6 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 358 miles; opponent 362 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-32 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

9
2026-11-07

vs San Antonio

45.1%

-1.8

0 / 0

Wembanyama reduces easy finishes; prioritize spacing and secure rebounds.
POR back-to-back; SAS back-to-back; POR third in four nights; SAS third in four nights; Recovery timing -0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	-2.60
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	-0.43
Matchup interaction	-0.59

Expected pace 100.8 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 827 miles; opponent 484 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-195 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

10
2026-11-10

vs Oklahoma City

41.1%

-3.4

2 / 2

Protect the ball and avoid foul trouble against SGA/Holmgren.
Recovery timing -0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	-4.27
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	-0.43
Matchup interaction	-0.44

Expected pace 100.7 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 1484 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-216 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

11
2026-11-11

vs Oklahoma City

41.1%

-3.4

0 / 0

Protect the ball and avoid foul trouble against SGA/Holmgren.
POR back-to-back; OKC back-to-back; Recovery timing -0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	-4.27
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	-0.43
Matchup interaction	-0.44

Expected pace 100.7 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-226 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

12
2026-11-13

@ Sacramento

60.2%

+3.8

1 / 2

Make Sabonis defend in space and limit handoff-generated shooting.
POR third in four nights; Recovery timing -0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+6.53
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	-0.68
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	-0.43
Matchup interaction	+0.17

Expected pace 100.6 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.6 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 484 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-41 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

13
2026-11-16

@ Minnesota

47.1%

-1.1

2 / 1

Edwards tests guard defense; pull-up shooting can move Gobert coverage.
Recovery timing -0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+0.82
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+0.48
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	-0.43
Matchup interaction	-0.11

Expected pace 101.0 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 1511 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-250 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

14
2026-11-17

@ Minnesota

46.4%

-1.3

0 / 0

Edwards tests guard defense; pull-up shooting can move Gobert coverage.
POR back-to-back; MIN back-to-back; MIN third in four nights; Recovery timing -0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+0.82
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+0.21
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	-0.43
Matchup interaction	-0.11

Expected pace 101.0 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-254 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

15
2026-11-19

@ Milwaukee

72.4%

+8.8

1 / 0

Attack a rebuilding defense; contain Herro/Ware actions.
MIL back-to-back; POR third in four nights; Recovery timing -0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+8.36
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+2.41
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	-0.43
Matchup interaction	+0.27

Expected pace 100.1 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.8 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 298 miles; opponent 1271 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-271 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

16
2026-11-21

@ New York

41.2%

-3.3

1 / 1

Brunson hunts switches; Towns stretches the rim protector.
Recovery timing -0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	-0.61
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	-0.43
Matchup interaction	-0.45

Expected pace 99.9 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 732 miles; opponent 1016 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-275 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

17
2026-11-23

@ Philadelphia

45.9%

-1.5

1 / 1

Embiid availability changes the matchup; defend multiple large creators.
Recovery timing -0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+0.84
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	-0.43
Matchup interaction	-0.10

Expected pace 100.7 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 83 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-288 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

18
2026-11-25

vs San Antonio

44.7%

-2.0

1 / 1

Wembanyama reduces easy finishes; prioritize spacing and secure rebounds.
Recovery timing -0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	-2.60
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	-0.15
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	-0.43
Matchup interaction	-0.59

Expected pace 100.8 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 2405 miles; opponent 484 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-63 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

19
2026-11-27

vs Golden State

62.3%

+4.7

1 / 1

Chase Curry movement; lineup strength changes with winter recoveries.
Recovery timing +0.3

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+2.44
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.33
Matchup interaction	+0.09

Expected pace 100.6 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.9 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 536 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-74 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

20
2026-11-29

vs New Orleans

66.2%

+6.2

1 / 1

Protect paint versus Zion/Queen and remain attached to Murphy.
Recovery timing -0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+4.56
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	-0.43
Matchup interaction	+0.18

Expected pace 101.0 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.6 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 831 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-309 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

21
2026-12-01

vs Minnesota

56.8%

+2.6

1 / 1

Edwards tests guard defense; pull-up shooting can move Gobert coverage.
No major schedule disadvantage

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+0.82
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	-0.11

Expected pace 101.0 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 484 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-325 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

22
2026-12-03

vs Utah

67.5%

+6.8

1 / 1

Jackson/Markkanen stretch frontcourt coverage; protect the rim.
No major schedule disadvantage

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+4.71
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	+0.12

Expected pace 101.6 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.8 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 536 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-340 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

23
December TBD

NBA Cup-dependent opponent

55.5%

TBD

Unassigned Western-conference opponent mixture; not a fabricated fixture.
December 4–10; date and venue unresolvedOpponent, venue and rest unresolved. Equal prior over the other 14 Western teams, with 50/50 home/away; no claim this is the actual Cup selection mechanism.

24
December TBD

NBA Cup-dependent opponent

55.4%

TBD

25
2026-12-12

vs Atlanta

55.1%

+1.9

None / None

Pressure on ball handlers; avoid live-ball turnovers.
Post-Cup sequence unresolved

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+0.23
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	-0.18

Expected pace 101.3 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.8 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-348 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

26
2026-12-15

vs Denver

53.0%

+1.1

2 / 2

Jokic passing punishes help; keep Clingan out of foul trouble.
No major schedule disadvantage

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	-0.34
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	-0.36

Expected pace 100.4 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 635 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-367 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

27
2026-12-17

@ Indiana

57.1%

+2.7

1 / 0

Organize transition defense against Haliburton; test returning players.
IND back-to-back

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+1.99
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+2.62
Travel difference	-0.25
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	-0.08
Matchup interaction	+0.17

Expected pace 101.1 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.8 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 1881 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-381 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

28
2026-12-19

@ Charlotte

55.0%

+1.9

1 / 0

Stay attached to perimeter shooters; test replacement playmaking.
CHA back-to-back; CHA third in four nights

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+1.13
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+2.83
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	-0.05
Matchup interaction	-0.22

Expected pace 99.9 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.8 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 428 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-396 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

29
2026-12-21

@ Brooklyn

71.7%

+8.5

1 / 0

Contain Randle without surrendering Porter catch-and-shoot looks.
BKN back-to-back; BKN third in four nights

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+7.25
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+2.83
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	+0.23

Expected pace 99.9 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 530 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-413 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

30
2026-12-23

@ Boston

37.3%

-4.8

1 / 2

Defend wing creation and high-volume threes; protect non-star minutes.
No major schedule disadvantage

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	-2.38
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	-0.48
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	-0.19

Expected pace 99.2 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 190 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-426 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

31
2026-12-26

@ Washington

60.9%

+4.1

2 / 2

Attack Young while respecting Davis/Sarr rim protection.
No major schedule disadvantage

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+5.30
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	+0.56

Expected pace 101.3 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 394 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-438 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

32
2026-12-27

@ Detroit

38.4%

-4.3

0 / 0

Cunningham targets small guards; finish defensive possessions.
POR back-to-back; DET back-to-back

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	-2.28
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	-0.24

Expected pace 100.5 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.6 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 394 miles; opponent 237 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-452 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

33
2026-12-29

vs Brooklyn

73.4%

+9.3

1 / 1

Contain Randle without surrendering Porter catch-and-shoot looks.
POR third in four nights; BKN third in four nights

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+7.25
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	+0.23

Expected pace 99.9 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 1964 miles; opponent 2438 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-468 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

34
2027-01-02

vs Boston

56.8%

+2.5

3 / 0

Defend wing creation and high-volume threes; protect non-star minutes.
BOS back-to-back; BOS third in four nights

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	-2.38
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+3.30
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	-0.19

Expected pace 99.2 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 635 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-501 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

35
2027-01-04

vs New York

52.0%

+0.8

1 / 1

Brunson hunts switches; Towns stretches the rim protector.
No major schedule disadvantage

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	-0.61
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	-0.45

Expected pace 99.9 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 981 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-515 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

36
2027-01-06

@ New Orleans

57.3%

+2.7

1 / 1

Protect paint versus Zion/Queen and remain attached to Murphy.
No major schedule disadvantage

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+4.56
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	-0.25
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	+0.18

Expected pace 101.0 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.6 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 2060 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-527 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

37
2027-01-07

@ Dallas

44.3%

-2.1

0 / 2

Camara versus Flagg; make returning Irving defend repeated actions.
POR back-to-back; POR third in four nights

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+3.17
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	-3.30
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	-0.04
Matchup interaction	-0.10

Expected pace 101.4 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.6 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 442 miles; opponent 442 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-536 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

38
2027-01-09

vs Charlotte

56.5%

+2.5

1 / 1

Stay attached to perimeter shooters; test replacement playmaking.
POR third in four nights

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+1.13
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	-0.21
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	-0.05
Matchup interaction	-0.22

Expected pace 99.9 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.8 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 1631 miles; opponent 2285 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-554 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

39
2027-01-12

vs Orlando

56.3%

+2.4

2 / 1

Banchero/Wagner test wing size; help without conceding Bane threes.
No major schedule disadvantage

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+0.22
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+0.48
Travel difference	+0.15
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	-0.33

Expected pace 100.7 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 2525 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-576 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

40
2027-01-13

vs LA Lakers

51.7%

+0.6

0 / 1

Pre-switch guard mismatches against Doncic; attack non-Luka minutes.
POR back-to-back

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+1.76
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	-2.62
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	-0.32

Expected pace 100.3 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.6 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 831 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-584 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

41
2027-01-15

vs Sacramento

77.7%

+11.2

1 / 0

Make Sabonis defend in space and limit handoff-generated shooting.
SAC back-to-back; POR third in four nights; SAC third in four nights

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+6.53
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+2.62
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	+0.17

Expected pace 100.6 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.6 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 484 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-599 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

42
2027-01-17

@ Oklahoma City

32.7%

-6.6

1 / 1

Protect the ball and avoid foul trouble against SGA/Holmgren.
No major schedule disadvantage

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	-4.27
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	-0.10
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	-0.44

Expected pace 100.7 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 1484 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-609 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

43
2027-01-19

@ Miami

43.2%

-2.6

1 / 1

Build transition walls; keep enough shooting around Portland creators.
No major schedule disadvantage

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	-0.33
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	-0.41

Expected pace 101.8 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.8 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 1227 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-620 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

44
2027-01-20

@ Atlanta

37.9%

-4.6

0 / 1

Pressure on ball handlers; avoid live-ball turnovers.
POR back-to-back; POR third in four nights

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+0.23
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	-2.83
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	-0.18

Expected pace 101.3 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.8 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 607 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-624 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

45
2027-01-22

@ Orlando

43.0%

-2.6

1 / 2

Banchero/Wagner test wing size; help without conceding Bane threes.
POR third in four nights

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+0.22
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	-0.68
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	-0.33

Expected pace 100.7 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 402 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-640 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

46
2027-01-24

@ San Antonio

36.7%

-5.0

1 / 1

Wembanyama reduces easy finishes; prioritize spacing and secure rebounds.
No major schedule disadvantage

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	-2.60
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	-0.59

Expected pace 100.8 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 1035 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-655 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

47
2027-01-26

vs Washington

69.6%

+7.6

1 / 1

Attack Young while respecting Davis/Sarr rim protection.
No major schedule disadvantage

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+5.30
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	-0.15
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	+0.56

Expected pace 101.3 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 1719 miles; opponent 827 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-675 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

48
2027-01-27

vs Golden State

54.8%

+1.8

0 / 2

Chase Curry movement; lineup strength changes with winter recoveries.
POR back-to-back; POR third in four nights; Recovery timing +0.8

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+2.44
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	-3.30
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.78
Matchup interaction	+0.09

Expected pace 100.6 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.9 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 536 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-685 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

49
2027-01-31

@ Denver

50.8%

+0.3

3 / 0

Jokic passing punishes help; keep Clingan out of foul trouble.
DEN back-to-back

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	-0.34
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+3.10
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	-0.30
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	-0.36

Expected pace 100.4 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 981 miles; opponent 504 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-714 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

50
2027-02-02

vs Minnesota

56.8%

+2.6

1 / 1

Edwards tests guard defense; pull-up shooting can move Gobert coverage.
No major schedule disadvantage

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+0.82
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	-0.11

Expected pace 101.0 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 981 miles; opponent 1422 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-730 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

51
2027-02-04

vs Cleveland

62.3%

+4.7

1 / 0

Mobley/Allen deter drives; make pull-up shooting stretch coverage.
CLE back-to-back; CLE third in four nights

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+0.04
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+2.83
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	-0.06

Expected pace 100.8 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.8 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 1006 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-745 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

52
2027-02-06

@ Memphis

60.2%

+3.9

1 / 2

Limit Edey/Boozer second chances; pressure inexperienced creators.
No major schedule disadvantage

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+5.99
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	-0.48
Travel difference	-0.25
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	+0.33

Expected pace 101.1 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.8 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 1846 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-755 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

53
2027-02-08

@ Memphis

62.1%

+4.6

1 / 1

Limit Edey/Boozer second chances; pressure inexperienced creators.
No major schedule disadvantage

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+5.99
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	+0.33

Expected pace 101.1 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.8 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-774 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

54
2027-02-09

@ Oklahoma City

26.4%

-9.4

0 / 1

Protect the ball and avoid foul trouble against SGA/Holmgren.
POR back-to-back; POR third in four nights

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	-4.27
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	-2.83
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	-0.44

Expected pace 100.7 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 422 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-784 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

55
2027-02-11

@ Dallas

52.8%

+1.0

1 / 1

Camara versus Flagg; make returning Irving defend repeated actions.
POR third in four nights

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+3.17
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	-0.21
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	-0.04
Matchup interaction	-0.10

Expected pace 101.4 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.6 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 190 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-797 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

56
2027-02-13

vs Detroit

46.4%

-1.3

1 / 2

Cunningham targets small guards; finish defensive possessions.
No major schedule disadvantage

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	-2.28
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	-0.48
Travel difference	-0.15
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	-0.24

Expected pace 100.5 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.6 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 1631 miles; opponent 1006 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-811 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

57
2027-02-14

vs Chicago

57.3%

+2.8

0 / 2

Attack a young defense; keep Giddey out of transition.
POR back-to-back; POR third in four nights

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+4.17
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	-3.30
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	+0.05

Expected pace 101.5 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.8 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 981 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-822 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

58
2027-02-16

vs New Orleans

67.2%

+6.6

1 / 1

Protect paint versus Zion/Queen and remain attached to Murphy.
POR third in four nights

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+4.56
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	-0.21
Travel difference	+0.15
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	+0.18

Expected pace 101.0 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.6 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 2060 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-830 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

59
2027-02-18

vs Indiana

67.6%

+6.8

1 / 0

Organize transition defense against Haliburton; test returning players.
IND back-to-back; IND third in four nights

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+1.99
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+2.83
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	-0.08
Matchup interaction	+0.17

Expected pace 101.1 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.8 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 484 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-848 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

60
2027-02-26

vs Dallas

70.7%

+8.0

7 / 0

Camara versus Flagg; make returning Irving defend repeated actions.
DAL back-to-back

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+3.17
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+3.10
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	-0.04
Matchup interaction	-0.10

Expected pace 101.4 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.6 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 536 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-865 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

61
2027-02-28

@ LA Clippers

56.6%

+2.5

1 / 2

Test Garland defensively; make Ingram give up contested midrange attempts.
No major schedule disadvantage

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+4.60
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	-0.48
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.02
Matchup interaction	+0.14

Expected pace 99.8 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.6 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 831 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-880 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

62
2027-03-02

vs LA Clippers

68.0%

+6.9

1 / 1

Test Garland defensively; make Ingram give up contested midrange attempts.
Recovery timing +0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+4.60
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.37
Matchup interaction	+0.14

Expected pace 99.8 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.6 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 831 miles; opponent 831 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-895 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

63
2027-03-04

@ Cleveland

44.1%

-2.2

1 / 2

Mobley/Allen deter drives; make pull-up shooting stretch coverage.
Recovery timing +0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+0.04
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	-0.48
Travel difference	-0.25
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.37
Matchup interaction	-0.06

Expected pace 100.8 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.8 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 2050 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-903 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

64
2027-03-05

@ Toronto

38.8%

-4.2

0 / 1

Leonard/Barnes punish small lineups; stop transition before it starts.
POR back-to-back; POR third in four nights; TOR third in four nights; Recovery timing +0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+0.16
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	-2.62
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.37
Matchup interaction	-0.28

Expected pace 100.3 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.6 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 189 miles; opponent 1237 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-913 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

65
2027-03-07

@ Chicago

63.8%

+5.3

1 / 0

Attack a young defense; keep Giddey out of transition.
CHI back-to-back; POR third in four nights; Recovery timing +0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+4.17
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+2.41
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.37
Matchup interaction	+0.05

Expected pace 101.5 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.8 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 436 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-926 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

66
2027-03-09

@ Golden State

48.7%

-0.5

1 / 1

Chase Curry movement; lineup strength changes with winter recoveries.
Recovery timing -1.1

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+2.44
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	-0.15
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	-1.07
Matchup interaction	+0.09

Expected pace 100.6 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.9 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 1855 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-944 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

67
2027-03-10

vs Denver

46.9%

-1.2

0 / 1

Jokic passing punishes help; keep Clingan out of foul trouble.
POR back-to-back; POR third in four nights; DEN third in four nights; Recovery timing +0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	-0.34
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	-2.62
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.37
Matchup interaction	-0.36

Expected pace 100.4 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 536 miles; opponent 484 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-950 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

68
2027-03-13

vs LA Clippers

69.6%

+7.6

2 / 1

Test Garland defensively; make Ingram give up contested midrange attempts.
LAC third in four nights; Recovery timing +0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+4.60
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+0.68
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.37
Matchup interaction	+0.14

Expected pace 99.8 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.6 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 831 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-975 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

69
2027-03-16

vs LA Lakers

60.9%

+4.1

2 / 1

Pre-switch guard mismatches against Doncic; attack non-Luka minutes.
Recovery timing +0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+1.76
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+0.48
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.37
Matchup interaction	-0.32

Expected pace 100.3 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.6 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 827 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-996 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

70
2027-03-17

vs Miami

45.5%

-1.7

0 / 2

Build transition walls; keep enough shooting around Portland creators.
POR back-to-back; Recovery timing +0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	-0.33
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	-3.10
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.37
Matchup interaction	-0.41

Expected pace 101.8 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.8 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 981 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-1005 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

71
2027-03-19

@ Golden State

49.1%

-0.4

1 / 1

Chase Curry movement; lineup strength changes with winter recoveries.
POR third in four nights; GSW third in four nights; Recovery timing -1.1

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+2.44
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	-1.07
Matchup interaction	+0.09

Expected pace 100.6 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.9 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 536 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-1018 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

72
2027-03-21

@ Phoenix

51.7%

+0.6

1 / 1

Booker actions test small guards; center availability changes rebounding.
No major schedule disadvantage

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+2.26
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.12
Matchup interaction	+0.06

Expected pace 100.0 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 653 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-1031 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

73
2027-03-23

vs Toronto

55.5%

+2.1

1 / 1

Leonard/Barnes punish small lineups; stop transition before it starts.
Recovery timing +0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+0.16
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.37
Matchup interaction	-0.28

Expected pace 100.3 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.6 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 1006 miles; opponent 635 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-1047 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

74
2027-03-26

vs Philadelphia

59.7%

+3.6

2 / 1

Embiid availability changes the matchup; defend multiple large creators.
PHI third in four nights; Recovery timing +0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+0.84
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+0.68
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.37
Matchup interaction	-0.10

Expected pace 100.7 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 536 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-1072 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

75
2027-03-27

vs Milwaukee

77.1%

+11.0

0 / 0

Attack a rebuilding defense; contain Herro/Ware actions.
POR back-to-back; MIL back-to-back; MIL third in four nights; Recovery timing +0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+8.36
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+0.21
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.37
Matchup interaction	+0.27

Expected pace 100.1 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.8 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 1006 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-1078 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

76
2027-03-30

vs Houston

55.3%

+1.9

2 / 1

Protect the ball against Thompson and finish the rebounding possession.
Recovery timing +0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	-0.78
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+0.48
Travel difference	+0.15
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.37
Matchup interaction	-0.07

Expected pace 99.7 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.5 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 1834 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-1102 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

77
2027-03-31

vs Houston

54.2%

+1.5

0 / 0

Protect the ball against Thompson and finish the rebounding possession.
POR back-to-back; HOU back-to-back; HOU third in four nights; Recovery timing +0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	-0.78
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+0.21
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.37
Matchup interaction	-0.07

Expected pace 99.7 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.5 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-1112 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

78
2027-04-02

vs Utah

66.7%

+6.4

1 / 2

Jackson/Markkanen stretch frontcourt coverage; protect the rim.
POR third in four nights; Recovery timing +0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+4.71
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	-0.68
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.37
Matchup interaction	+0.12

Expected pace 101.6 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.8 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 0 miles; opponent 635 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-1127 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

79
2027-04-04

@ Utah

58.3%

+3.2

1 / 1

Jackson/Markkanen stretch frontcourt coverage; protect the rim.
Recovery timing +0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+4.71
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	-0.30
Recovery timing	+0.37
Matchup interaction	+0.12

Expected pace 101.6 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.8 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 635 miles; opponent 635 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-1140 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

80
2027-04-07

vs Dallas

72.0%

+8.6

2 / 0

Camara versus Flagg; make returning Irving defend repeated actions.
DAL back-to-back; DAL third in four nights; Recovery timing +0.3

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	+3.17
Home court	+1.80
Rest difference	+3.30
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.31
Matchup interaction	-0.10

Expected pace 101.4 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.6 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 635 miles; opponent 827 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-1166 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

81
2027-04-09

@ Houston

43.1%

-2.5

1 / 1

Protect the ball against Thompson and finish the rebounding possession.
Recovery timing +0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	-0.78
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	-0.25
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.37
Matchup interaction	-0.07

Expected pace 99.7 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.5 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 1834 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-1180 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

82
2027-04-11

@ San Antonio

37.6%

-4.7

1 / 1

Wembanyama reduces easy finishes; prioritize spacing and secure rebounds.
Recovery timing +0.4

Inspect margin components

Component	Points / 100 possessions
Team-strength difference	-2.60
Home court	-1.80
Rest difference	+0.00
Travel difference	+0.00
Altitude	+0.00
Recovery timing	+0.37
Matchup interaction	-0.59

Expected pace 100.8 possessions. Conditional game SD 13.7 points. Travel from previous scheduled venue: POR 189 miles; opponent 0 miles. Scheduled travel is a proxy, not an observed itinerary. ID NBA26-1196 is a stable schedule-row ID, to be mapped to an official NBA game ID before processing.

Portland: value added, value lost, minutes that fit

Portland's measured 2025–26 NBA efficiency was 113.1 on offense and 113.5 allowed per 100 possessions. The independently fitted, opponent-adjusted baseline is regressed toward league average before roster changes. The new projection is +1.75 offensive points and +0.02 defensive points prevented relative to the projected league, for a net rating of +1.76.

Lillard's spacing and Morant's rim pressure are substantive additions. The model gives both credit while subtracting departed minutes, Sharpe's reduced availability, some Holiday aging, overlapping creation and the defensive cost of small guard combinations. Henderson and Cissoko receive modest development gains. Nori's one-year contract itself gets zero points: contract length is not evidence of a measurable improvement.

Every grade below is an analyst assumption, not EPM, RAPM, BPM or a measured causal effect. O means points added on offense; D means points prevented on defense, per 100 possessions while on court. Season effect = projected minutes / (82 × 48) × projected grade minus normalized previous Portland minutes × previous grade. Lillard and Morant had no previous Portland minutes, so their old grades do not contribute. Previous minutes include overtime and are normalized to 240 per team-game.

Player	Expected games	Min when active	Season minutes	Prior POR minutes	Old O / D grade	New O / D grade	Net team change
Lillard	58	28	1624	0	+4.8 / -1.2	+4.0 / -1.0	+1.24
Morant	60	30	1800	0	+3.2 / -0.6	+3.2 / -0.6	+1.19
Holiday	62	27	1674	1558	+0.8 / +1.7	+0.6 / +1.2	-0.22
Avdija	72	34	2448	2201	+2.7 / +0.8	+2.9 / +0.9	+0.41
Camara	76	33	2508	2729	-0.3 / +2.3	-0.2 / +2.4	+0.02
Clingan	72	29	2088	2093	+0.3 / +2.0	+0.5 / +2.5	+0.37
Henderson	68	24	1632	747	-0.6 / -0.4	+0.2 / -0.2	+0.19
Cissoko	72	21	1512	1434	-1.5 / +0.5	-1.0 / +0.8	+0.29
Williams III	52	18	936	1008	+0.2 / +1.8	+0.2 / +1.8	-0.03
Krejčí	68	20	1360	364	+0.3 / -0.3	+0.4 / -0.3	+0.03
Sochan	62	14	868	0	-1.0 / +0.5	-1.0 / +0.5	-0.11
Sharpe	14	20	280	1471	+1.0 / -0.5	+0.8 / -0.5	-0.16
Carlson	35	12	420	0	-0.4 / -0.3	-0.4 / -0.3	-0.07
Potter	30	10	300	0	-0.1 / -0.9	-0.1 / -0.9	-0.08
Hansen	20	9	180	301	-1.0 / -1.0	-0.7 / -0.8	+0.08
Youngblood	10	5	50	11	-1.2 / -0.8	-1.0 / -0.7	-0.02
Grant	0	0	0	1697	+0.8 / -0.2	+0.8 / -0.2	-0.26
Murray	0	0	0	1337	-1.2 / +0.2	-1.2 / +0.2	+0.34
Thybulle	0	0	0	481	-1.0 / +1.5	-1.0 / +1.5	-0.06
Love	0	0	0	1015	-1.5 / -0.5	-1.5 / -0.5	+0.51
Wesley	0	0	0	363	-1.5 / -0.5	-1.5 / -0.5	+0.18
Reath	0	0	0	256	-0.5 / -1.0	-0.5 / -1.0	+0.10

Additional assumption	O	D
Creator overlap	-0.35	+0.00
Small-backcourt interaction	+0.00	-0.45
Nori contract incentive	+0.00	+0.00

Projected minutes total exactly 19,680 = 82 × 240. The expected-games and active-minutes values are season averages across availability scenarios, not a claim all players can simultaneously receive those minutes when everyone is healthy. Unclassified former fringe minutes receive a zero impact grade: {'Rayan Rupert': 577.0, 'Javonte Cooke': 94.0, 'Jayson Kent': 23.0}.

The Portland roster and fit adjustments total +3.15 points per 100 possessions. Holding the opponents fixed and removing only those adjustments lowers this model to 37.9 expected wins. That roughly 6.7-win difference measures the model's roster assumptions; it is not a causal estimate or a comparison with the old market model.

Recovery assumptions: 58 games at 28 minutes for Lillard; 60 × 30 for Morant; 52 × 18 for Robert Williams; 14 × 20 for Sharpe. The Sharpe scenario is speculative: a six-month reevaluation is not a promised return date. Early-season timing effects are centered so they redistribute expected strength rather than count an injury twice.

All 30 teams, reviewed individually

Positive net rating favors the team on a neutral floor against an average opponent. All teams share the same statistical baseline. Offseason changes are explicitly documented below; they are not reverse-engineered from wins or odds. Portland uses a detailed minutes-weighted impact ledger. The other 29 teams use explicit team-level offense/defense adjustments, not a fitted player-impact model. Their rotation projections inform availability uncertainty and the basketball assessment. League centering subtracts the average roster adjustment, preventing every team from improving relative to everyone else.

Team	Last record	Observed net	Regressed adjusted net	Roster / fit change	New net	Schedule wins*
Oklahoma City	64–18	+11.1	+6.54	+0.70	+6.04	54.5
San Antonio	62–20	+8.4	+4.87	+0.70	+4.37	51.3
Boston	56–26	+8.3	+4.69	+0.65	+4.14	49.8
Detroit	60–22	+8.4	+4.50	+0.75	+4.04	50.1
Houston	52–30	+5.4	+3.05	+0.70	+2.54	46.7
New York	53–29	+6.4	+3.78	-0.20	+2.38	46.0
Denver	54–28	+5.2	+3.01	+0.30	+2.10	46.1
Miami	43–39	+2.1	+1.34	+1.95	+2.09	46.1
Portland	42–40	-0.4	-0.18	+3.15	+1.76	44.6
Cleveland	52–30	+4.1	+2.12	+0.80	+1.72	44.6
Toronto	46–36	+2.9	+1.51	+1.30	+1.60	44.2
Orlando	45–37	+0.6	+0.50	+2.25	+1.55	44.3
Atlanta	46–36	+2.2	+1.38	+1.35	+1.53	44.1
Minnesota	49–33	+3.1	+1.70	+0.45	+0.94	42.7
Philadelphia	45–37	-0.1	-0.12	+2.25	+0.93	42.7
Charlotte	44–38	+4.9	+2.78	-0.95	+0.63	42.6
LA Lakers	53–29	+1.5	+1.06	+0.15	+0.01	41.1
Indiana	19–63	-7.8	-4.57	+5.55	-0.22	40.3
Phoenix	45–37	+1.4	+1.11	-0.40	-0.49	40.3
Golden State	37–45	-0.5	-0.12	+0.65	-0.67	39.8
Dallas	26–56	-5.2	-3.25	+3.05	-1.40	37.7
Chicago	31–51	-5.3	-3.05	+1.85	-2.40	35.2
New Orleans	26–56	-4.4	-2.59	+1.00	-2.79	34.4
LA Clippers	42–40	+1.1	+0.62	-2.25	-2.84	35.2
Utah	22–60	-8.2	-4.84	+3.10	-2.95	34.7
Washington	17–65	-11.8	-6.83	+4.50	-3.53	33.2
Memphis	25–57	-6.0	-3.38	+0.35	-4.23	31.5
Sacramento	22–60	-9.7	-5.81	+2.25	-4.76	30.7
Brooklyn	20–62	-10.0	-5.93	+1.65	-5.49	28.8
Milwaukee	32–50	-6.1	-3.89	-1.50	-6.59	26.9

*Other teams’ schedule totals are a league-consistency check using the same ratings and schedule, with analytic marginal uncertainty and simpler interactions. Portland’s 82-game simulation is the primary forecast. Complementary outcomes sum to 1,230 league wins. Rounding can conceal small differences.

Oklahoma City — projected net +6.04

Prior offense 117.6; defense allowed 106.5; pace 100.4. Projected offense relative to league +1.44; defense prevented +4.59.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	56.1%	51.9%
Turnover rate	12.4%	16.5%
Offensive rebound rate	26.4%	30.3%
FTA / FGA	0.261	0.248
Three-point attempt share	42.5%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Jalen Williams availability	+0.65	+0.35	More than 33 games
Dort Wiggins Joe departures	-0.50	-0.40	Real depth and shooting lost
Young core development	+0.35	+0.25	Mitchell/Wallace/Holmgren progress

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	34.0	69	68	33.2	66.5%
Cason Wallace	29.0	74	77	26.6	53.8%
Jalen Williams	32.0	66	33	28.4	56.0%
Chet Holmgren	30.0	70	69	28.9	65.3%
Isaiah Hartenstein	23.0	58	47	24.2	63.1%
Ajay Mitchell	27.0	64	57	25.8	58.5%
Alex Caruso	19.0	63	56	18.2	54.0%
Jaylin Williams	18.0	68	65	19.7	59.7%
Jared McCain	18.0	68	67	17.3	55.1%
Nikola Topić	10.0	45	10	16.0	48.9%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): None

San Antonio — projected net +4.37

Prior offense 118.7; defense allowed 110.4; pace 100.7. Projected offense relative to league +1.78; defense prevented +2.58.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	55.9%	52.2%
Turnover rate	13.3%	12.8%
Offensive rebound rate	30.6%	27.6%
FTA / FGA	0.274	0.228
Three-point attempt share	42.2%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Young core development	+0.50	+0.45	Castle Harper Wembanyama
Depth and workload management	-0.10	-0.15	Harris/replacement minutes; no revenge bonus

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
De'Aaron Fox	31.0	71	72	31.0	57.8%
Stephon Castle	31.0	69	68	30.0	57.5%
Devin Vassell	29.0	68	67	30.5	57.4%
Julian Champagnie	24.0	76	82	27.6	60.9%
Victor Wembanyama	31.0	67	64	29.2	62.6%
Dylan Harper	28.0	70	69	22.6	57.4%
Keldon Johnson	22.0	76	82	23.3	61.3%
Luke Kornet	17.0	69	68	21.0	68.9%
Harrison Barnes	15.0	72	77	25.8	60.8%
Carter Bryant	12.0	70	71	11.5	52.6%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): None

Boston — projected net +4.14

Prior offense 120.0; defense allowed 111.7; pace 95.6. Projected offense relative to league +1.95; defense prevented +2.19.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	55.3%	52.3%
Turnover rate	12.9%	12.9%
Offensive rebound rate	33.6%	29.0%
FTA / FGA	0.207	0.245
Three-point attempt share	46.7%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Tatum availability versus last season	+1.80	+0.50	Many more minutes than the 16-game return
Brown to George trade	-1.70	-0.35	Creation and availability downgrade
Frontcourt and depth	+0.05	+0.35	Robinson helps defense; aging and minutes limits remain

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Derrick White	34.0	74	77	34.1	52.9%
Payton Pritchard	30.0	74	79	32.3	58.4%
Jayson Tatum	34.0	70	16	32.6	54.1%
Paul George	28.0	52	37	30.7	57.0%
Neemias Queta	25.0	73	76	25.3	67.4%
Mitchell Robinson	19.0	65	60	19.6	67.6%
Sam Hauser	24.0	74	78	24.8	59.0%
Hugo González	20.0	72	74	14.6	56.1%
Baylor Scheierman	16.0	74	77	18.6	61.6%
Mike Conley	10.0	60	54	18.4	51.7%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): None

Detroit — projected net +4.04

Prior offense 117.3; defense allowed 108.9; pace 99.9. Projected offense relative to league +0.81; defense prevented +3.23.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	54.6%	51.7%
Turnover rate	15.1%	16.8%
Offensive rebound rate	35.4%	31.1%
FTA / FGA	0.292	0.319
Three-point attempt share	34.5%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Collins and Joe shooting	+0.55	-0.35	More spacing; Stewart departure costs interior defense
Core development	+0.35	+0.20	Cunningham, Duren and Thompson growth
Duren contract resolved	+0.00	+0.00	October 3 team announcement: extension signed; no holdout discount

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Cade Cunningham	34.0	67	64	33.9	56.4%
Duncan Robinson	25.0	74	77	27.4	62.9%
Ausar Thompson	29.0	72	73	26.0	54.5%
John Collins	27.0	70	69	27.1	64.3%
Jalen Duren	30.0	70	70	28.2	68.8%
Isaiah Joe	25.0	70	71	21.2	65.7%
Daniss Jenkins	23.0	71	72	20.2	52.5%
Ronald Holland II	20.0	74	78	19.9	52.5%
Paul Reed	15.0	68	65	13.9	65.0%
Taurean Prince	12.0	48	26	23.5	61.7%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): None

Houston — projected net +2.54

Prior offense 117.5; defense allowed 112.1; pace 97.0. Projected offense relative to league +0.77; defense prevented +1.78.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	54.2%	53.0%
Turnover rate	15.7%	13.7%
Offensive rebound rate	38.8%	29.9%
FTA / FGA	0.260	0.251
Three-point attempt share	35.1%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
VanVleet and Smart return/addition	+0.60	+0.25	Ball security and perimeter defense
Young core growth	+0.40	+0.25	Thompson and Sengun improvement
Durant aging and availability	-0.65	-0.15	Do not repeat 78 games and 36 minutes automatically

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Fred VanVleet	28.0	60	0	0.0	Unavailable
Amen Thompson	34.0	74	79	37.4	59.4%
Kevin Durant	34.0	66	78	36.4	64.1%
Jabari Smith Jr.	31.0	74	77	35.1	56.9%
Alperen Sengun	33.0	71	72	33.3	56.9%
Reed Sheppard	25.0	76	82	26.2	56.4%
Tari Eason	22.0	65	60	25.8	51.4%
Marcus Smart	17.0	66	62	28.5	54.3%
Steven Adams	10.0	51	32	22.8	53.5%
Clint Capela	6.0	72	75	12.3	54.0%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): None

New York — projected net +2.38

Prior offense 118.7; defense allowed 112.3; pace 97.7. Projected offense relative to league +1.53; defense prevented +0.85.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	55.7%	54.1%
Turnover rate	13.9%	14.7%
Offensive rebound rate	32.8%	28.5%
FTA / FGA	0.238	0.265
Three-point attempt share	42.7%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Center and bench turnover	-0.05	-0.35	Robinson to Drummond, Brown reserve depth
Veteran continuity	+0.10	+0.10	Small continuity benefit; no title bonus

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Jalen Brunson	35.0	72	74	35.0	58.0%
Mikal Bridges	33.0	76	82	32.8	58.7%
OG Anunoby	33.0	68	67	33.2	62.0%
Josh Hart	29.0	68	66	30.2	61.2%
Karl-Anthony Towns	32.0	72	75	31.0	61.9%
Miles McBride	24.0	56	41	26.3	57.8%
Landry Shamet	18.0	60	51	23.0	59.8%
Andre Drummond	16.0	66	63	19.5	53.9%
Bruce Brown	12.0	76	82	24.4	56.2%
Mohamed Diawara	8.0	70	69	9.2	55.0%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): None

Denver — projected net +2.10

Prior offense 121.2; defense allowed 116.0; pace 99.5. Projected offense relative to league +3.95; defense prevented -1.85.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	57.7%	54.3%
Turnover rate	12.8%	11.7%
Offensive rebound rate	28.6%	28.3%
FTA / FGA	0.294	0.254
Three-point attempt share	40.8%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Gordon and Braun availability	+0.40	+0.40	Recovery from low minutes last year
DeRozan and wing turnover	+0.40	-0.65	Shot creation replaces some shooting and defense
Aging and bench	-0.15	-0.10	Veteran workload cost without a narrative bonus

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Jamal Murray	35.0	72	75	35.4	62.2%
Christian Braun	30.0	57	44	31.8	60.7%
Cameron Johnson	29.0	62	54	30.5	62.9%
Aaron Gordon	29.0	53	36	27.9	62.0%
Nikola Jokić	35.0	68	65	34.8	67.0%
DeMar DeRozan	28.0	72	77	31.2	59.4%
Alpha Diallo	18.0	66	0	0.0	Unavailable
Marvin Bagley III	14.0	65	60	20.0	66.1%
Spencer Jones	14.0	67	64	22.1	61.9%
Julian Strawther	8.0	64	57	15.1	59.0%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): None

Miami — projected net +2.09

Prior offense 115.8; defense allowed 113.6; pace 104.2. Projected offense relative to league +1.27; defense prevented +0.82.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	54.2%	54.0%
Turnover rate	13.1%	14.4%
Offensive rebound rate	29.6%	29.7%
FTA / FGA	0.268	0.240
Three-point attempt share	40.6%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Giannis acquisition	+2.70	+1.05	Expected 62 games, 31 minutes; not an 82-game peak
Outgoing scorers and Ware	-1.40	-0.50	Subtract departed production
Shooting replacements and integration	+0.25	-0.15	Hardaway and Thompson, offset by aging/fit

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Davion Mitchell	28.0	70	70	28.6	58.2%
Klay Thompson	23.0	68	69	21.7	54.1%
Andrew Wiggins	29.0	69	68	30.3	58.6%
Giannis Antetokounmpo	31.0	62	36	28.9	65.8%
Bam Adebayo	33.0	72	73	32.4	55.1%
Bobby Portis Jr.	23.0	68	67	24.2	58.7%
Tim Hardaway Jr.	25.0	73	80	26.6	62.4%
Pelle Larsson	24.0	70	70	26.4	60.5%
Nikola Jović	14.0	58	47	17.2	48.0%
Dru Smith	10.0	70	70	16.3	53.2%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): None

Portland — projected net +1.76

Prior offense 113.1; defense allowed 113.5; pace 101.6. Projected offense relative to league +1.75; defense prevented +0.02.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	53.4%	54.1%
Turnover rate	16.9%	15.3%
Offensive rebound rate	35.4%	31.2%
FTA / FGA	0.280	0.272
Three-point attempt share	46.8%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Lillard	+1.65	-0.41	Minutes-weighted old versus projected analyst impact grade
Morant	+1.46	-0.27	Minutes-weighted old versus projected analyst impact grade
Holiday	-0.06	-0.16	Minutes-weighted old versus projected analyst impact grade
Avdija	+0.30	+0.11	Minutes-weighted old versus projected analyst impact grade
Camara	+0.08	-0.06	Minutes-weighted old versus projected analyst impact grade
Clingan	+0.11	+0.27	Minutes-weighted old versus projected analyst impact grade
Henderson	+0.20	-0.01	Minutes-weighted old versus projected analyst impact grade
Cissoko	+0.16	+0.13	Minutes-weighted old versus projected analyst impact grade
Williams III	-0.00	-0.03	Minutes-weighted old versus projected analyst impact grade
Krejčí	+0.11	-0.08	Minutes-weighted old versus projected analyst impact grade
Sochan	-0.22	+0.11	Minutes-weighted old versus projected analyst impact grade
Sharpe	-0.32	+0.15	Minutes-weighted old versus projected analyst impact grade
Carlson	-0.04	-0.03	Minutes-weighted old versus projected analyst impact grade
Potter	-0.01	-0.07	Minutes-weighted old versus projected analyst impact grade
Hansen	+0.04	+0.04	Minutes-weighted old versus projected analyst impact grade
Youngblood	-0.01	-0.01	Minutes-weighted old versus projected analyst impact grade
Grant	-0.34	+0.09	Minutes-weighted old versus projected analyst impact grade
Murray	+0.41	-0.07	Minutes-weighted old versus projected analyst impact grade
Thybulle	+0.12	-0.18	Minutes-weighted old versus projected analyst impact grade
Love	+0.39	+0.13	Minutes-weighted old versus projected analyst impact grade
Wesley	+0.14	+0.05	Minutes-weighted old versus projected analyst impact grade
Reath	+0.03	+0.06	Minutes-weighted old versus projected analyst impact grade
Creator overlap	-0.35	+0.00	Usage redistribution and initial integration
Small-backcourt interaction	+0.00	-0.45	Non-additive defensive cost beyond individual grades
Nori contract incentive	+0.00	+0.00	No automatic win bonus for contract length

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Damian Lillard	28.0	58	0	0.0	Unavailable
Ja Morant	30.0	60	20	28.4	52.1%
Deni Avdija	34.0	68	66	33.3	60.0%
Toumani Camara	33.0	76	82	33.3	57.8%
Donovan Clingan	29.0	74	77	27.2	60.4%
Jrue Holiday	26.0	62	53	29.4	57.3%
Scoot Henderson	22.0	50	30	24.9	55.3%
Sidy Cissoko	16.0	72	75	19.1	51.4%
Robert Williams III	14.0	52	59	17.1	72.2%
Vít Krejčí	8.0	68	65	21.4	60.9%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): [['2026-12-01', -0.45], ['2027-03-01', 0], ['2027-05-01', 0.35]]

Cleveland — projected net +1.72

Prior offense 118.3; defense allowed 114.1; pace 100.7. Projected offense relative to league +1.57; defense prevented +0.15.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	56.1%	54.3%
Turnover rate	13.8%	14.9%
Offensive rebound rate	30.7%	30.8%
FTA / FGA	0.265	0.263
Three-point attempt share	44.2%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Full-season Harden role	+0.40	-0.10	More organized creation; aging offsets
Watson and wing changes	+0.15	+0.35	Wing length and development; shooting regressed

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
James Harden	32.0	68	70	34.8	61.0%
Donovan Mitchell	34.0	70	70	33.5	61.3%
Peyton Watson	29.0	62	54	29.6	59.4%
Evan Mobley	33.0	68	65	31.9	59.6%
Jarrett Allen	29.0	63	56	27.1	66.9%
Jaylon Tyson	27.0	68	66	26.9	60.8%
Sam Merrill	22.0	61	52	26.5	64.4%
Craig Porter Jr.	15.0	67	64	17.9	52.4%
Mario Hezonja	10.0	66	0	0.0	Unavailable
Thomas Bryant	9.0	65	60	12.2	62.5%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): None

Toronto — projected net +1.60

Prior offense 115.0; defense allowed 112.1; pace 99.2. Projected offense relative to league -0.45; defense prevented +2.05.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	54.6%	54.0%
Turnover rate	13.7%	16.1%
Offensive rebound rate	30.0%	30.7%
FTA / FGA	0.265	0.279
Three-point attempt share	36.3%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Leonard versus Ingram	+0.30	+0.60	55-game Leonard assumption
Young development and center health	+0.30	+0.30	Murray-Boyles and Poeltl
Aging and integration	-0.10	-0.10	Restrained extra value

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Immanuel Quickley	31.0	70	70	31.9	57.7%
RJ Barrett	30.0	64	57	30.3	58.5%
Kawhi Leonard	31.0	55	65	32.1	62.9%
Scottie Barnes	34.0	75	80	33.5	57.7%
Jakob Poeltl	26.0	58	46	25.0	69.8%
Collin Murray-Boyles	26.0	64	57	21.9	62.1%
Jamal Shead	23.0	76	82	22.6	49.1%
Ja'Kobe Walter	18.0	71	72	20.5	61.0%
Kyle Anderson	13.0	56	43	19.8	57.3%
Trayce Jackson-Davis	8.0	48	53	9.4	57.8%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): None

Orlando — projected net +1.55

Prior offense 114.2; defense allowed 113.6; pace 100.6. Projected offense relative to league +0.26; defense prevented +1.28.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	53.1%	54.5%
Turnover rate	14.0%	14.7%
Offensive rebound rate	30.6%	29.0%
FTA / FGA	0.311	0.285
Three-point attempt share	38.6%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Wagner and Suggs availability	+1.05	+0.65	More healthy minutes than prior season
Banchero Black and shooting development	+0.40	+0.15	Moderate efficiency improvement
New coach and center rotation	+0.10	-0.10	No automatic new-coach bonus

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Jalen Suggs	29.0	64	57	27.6	56.1%
Desmond Bane	33.0	76	82	33.6	60.7%
Franz Wagner	33.0	52	34	30.0	58.8%
Paolo Banchero	35.0	71	72	34.7	56.6%
Wendell Carter Jr.	27.0	74	78	29.3	61.7%
Anthony Black	27.0	67	64	29.8	54.9%
Nikola Vučević	19.0	65	64	28.4	57.4%
Tristan da Silva	19.0	74	77	24.7	57.6%
Goga Bitadze	10.0	67	64	15.2	70.0%
Noah Penda	8.0	64	59	12.8	50.6%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): None

Atlanta — projected net +1.53

Prior offense 115.0; defense allowed 112.9; pace 102.5. Projected offense relative to league +0.32; defense prevented +1.21.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	55.4%	54.6%
Turnover rate	13.8%	15.6%
Offensive rebound rate	29.1%	29.8%
FTA / FGA	0.234	0.260
Three-point attempt share	42.9%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Full season of current creation	+0.70	+0.00	McCollum and Johnson continuity after the midseason change
Perimeter additions	+0.15	+0.55	Dort and Wiggins deepen useful rotations
Development and regression	+0.10	-0.15	Some growth; avoid extrapolating late-season shooting

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
CJ McCollum	28.0	71	76	29.8	56.6%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	31.0	74	78	33.4	61.0%
Dyson Daniels	32.0	73	76	33.2	54.2%
Jalen Johnson	34.0	71	72	35.2	58.1%
Onyeka Okongwu	30.0	72	74	31.0	59.2%
Luguentz Dort	23.0	70	69	26.8	52.4%
Aaron Wiggins	19.0	68	65	21.8	53.8%
Jock Landale	16.0	69	68	22.1	59.5%
Corey Kispert	12.0	64	58	18.6	60.9%
Kingston Flemings	15.0	66	0	0.0	Unavailable

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): None

Minnesota — projected net +0.94

Prior offense 115.6; defense allowed 112.5; pace 101.5. Projected offense relative to league +0.34; defense prevented +0.61.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	55.9%	52.9%
Turnover rate	14.5%	14.7%
Offensive rebound rate	30.2%	30.9%
FTA / FGA	0.285	0.282
Three-point attempt share	42.0%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Ball for Randle/Reid and other changes	+0.35	-0.35	Playmaking versus frontcourt production/depth
Edwards availability and development	+0.60	+0.10	More than 61 appearances, modest skill growth
Aging and bench fit	-0.15	-0.10	Gobert/bench constraints

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
LaMelo Ball	31.0	64	72	28.0	54.6%
Anthony Edwards	35.0	66	61	35.0	61.7%
Jaden McDaniels	33.0	72	73	31.7	61.1%
Jonathan Kuminga	28.0	53	36	23.1	55.7%
Rudy Gobert	30.0	71	76	31.3	66.4%
Donte DiVincenzo	27.0	76	82	30.4	56.7%
Ayo Dosunmu	24.0	70	69	27.3	63.0%
Joan Beringer	12.0	55	40	7.9	68.3%
Trey Lyles	12.0	66	0	0.0	Unavailable
Terrence Shannon Jr	8.0	56	43	12.5	59.7%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): None

Philadelphia — projected net +0.93

Prior offense 114.3; defense allowed 114.4; pace 100.4. Projected offense relative to league +0.45; defense prevented +0.48.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	53.0%	54.1%
Turnover rate	13.4%	15.2%
Offensive rebound rate	30.6%	32.2%
FTA / FGA	0.275	0.270
Three-point attempt share	39.1%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Brown and James additions	+2.35	+0.50	Weighted by 68 and 58 games, respectively
Departures and changed roles	-0.65	-0.20	George/Oubre/other rotations removed
Embiid availability and Edgecombe growth	+0.50	+0.45	48-game Embiid assumption; not full health
Usage overlap and aging	-0.45	-0.25	Multiple creators and small availability margin

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Tyrese Maxey	35.0	70	70	38.0	58.8%
VJ Edgecombe	30.0	72	75	35.0	54.0%
Jaylen Brown	33.0	70	71	34.4	57.3%
LeBron James	31.0	58	60	33.2	59.4%
Joel Embiid	30.0	48	38	31.6	60.5%
Anfernee Simons	25.0	62	55	24.9	57.6%
Dean Wade	20.0	64	59	22.3	58.0%
Adem Bona	18.0	70	71	17.4	63.8%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	12.0	58	51	21.3	53.3%
Dominick Barlow	6.0	70	71	23.8	59.7%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): None

Charlotte — projected net +0.63

Prior offense 118.4; defense allowed 113.5; pace 97.6. Projected offense relative to league -0.35; defense prevented +0.98.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	55.2%	54.0%
Turnover rate	15.7%	13.0%
Offensive rebound rate	35.8%	27.8%
FTA / FGA	0.244	0.232
Three-point attempt share	48.7%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Ball and Bridges departures	-2.30	-0.10	Creation lost despite replacement scoring
Reid and veteran shooting	+0.70	+0.20	Spacing and competent reserve minutes
Miller and Knueppel growth	+0.40	+0.15	Some improvement, shoulder availability discounted

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Coby White	29.0	60	50	25.0	59.5%
Kon Knueppel	33.0	76	81	31.5	63.3%
Brandon Miller	32.0	65	65	30.3	57.4%
Naz Reid	29.0	74	77	26.1	56.5%
Moussa Diabaté	25.0	72	73	26.0	65.3%
Dennis Schröder	22.0	70	70	24.2	52.6%
Grayson Allen	23.0	60	51	28.8	56.8%
Royce O'Neale	20.0	72	78	28.4	59.6%
Ryan Kalkbrenner	15.0	70	69	21.4	76.2%
Sion James	12.0	76	82	22.5	53.1%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): [['2026-11-15', -0.5], ['2027-05-01', 0]]

LA Lakers — projected net +0.01

Prior offense 117.0; defense allowed 115.5; pace 99.2. Projected offense relative to league -0.13; defense prevented +0.13.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	57.3%	55.5%
Turnover rate	14.6%	14.7%
Offensive rebound rate	28.5%	30.0%
FTA / FGA	0.320	0.241
Three-point attempt share	39.3%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
LeBron departure	-1.55	-0.15	Lost creation at actual prior-season exposure
Kessler and perimeter replacements	+0.30	+1.05	Interior defense and depth
Reaves availability and fit	+0.40	+0.10	More supported non-Doncic offense

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Luka Dončić	35.0	67	64	35.8	61.6%
Austin Reaves	34.0	60	51	34.5	64.1%
Quentin Grimes	28.0	72	75	29.4	58.5%
Jake LaRavia	25.0	76	82	25.1	57.1%
Walker Kessler	29.0	45	5	30.8	78.6%
Collin Sexton	25.0	69	68	23.7	61.5%
Sandro Mamukelashvili	22.0	75	80	21.9	63.7%
Jarred Vanderbilt	15.0	68	65	17.3	54.4%
Matisse Thybulle	15.0	50	30	16.0	60.0%
Ziaire Williams	12.0	63	56	22.9	57.9%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): None

Indiana — projected net -0.22

Prior offense 110.1; defense allowed 117.9; pace 101.8. Projected offense relative to league +0.39; defense prevented -0.61.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	53.3%	55.6%
Turnover rate	14.2%	13.2%
Offensive rebound rate	26.3%	30.5%
FTA / FGA	0.252	0.282
Three-point attempt share	42.2%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Haliburton return	+2.40	+0.15	Expected 62 games at 31 minutes; recovery discount
Other core availability	+1.10	+0.70	Siakam, Nembhard, Nesmith and Toppin minutes
Full Zubac integration and veterans	+0.45	+0.75	Center and rotation upgrades versus last season

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Tyrese Haliburton	31.0	62	0	0.0	Unavailable
Andrew Nembhard	31.0	64	57	31.3	56.4%
Aaron Nesmith	28.0	58	45	29.7	55.4%
Pascal Siakam	33.0	66	62	33.2	56.2%
Ivica Zubac	29.0	59	48	30.1	62.2%
Jarace Walker	25.0	73	76	25.7	54.3%
T.J. McConnell	17.0	61	56	17.2	56.7%
Kelly Oubre Jr.	19.0	60	50	31.5	58.0%
Obi Toppin	17.0	47	24	17.7	63.6%
Jay Huff	10.0	76	82	21.0	59.8%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): [['2026-12-01', -0.4], ['2027-05-01', 0]]

Phoenix — projected net -0.49

Prior offense 114.2; defense allowed 112.9; pace 98.1. Projected offense relative to league -0.84; defense prevented +0.35.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	53.7%	54.1%
Turnover rate	14.7%	16.5%
Offensive rebound rate	33.1%	32.3%
FTA / FGA	0.225	0.276
Three-point attempt share	45.3%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Bridges Kennard versus departing wings	+0.25	-0.40	Scoring versus shooting/defense tradeoff
Green availability	+0.35	-0.10	More minutes, efficiency uncertain
Williams shoulder	-0.20	-0.30	December recovery midpoint assumption

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Collin Gillespie	29.0	75	80	28.5	57.5%
Devin Booker	34.0	67	64	33.5	58.5%
Dillon Brooks	29.0	63	56	30.4	54.0%
Miles Bridges	31.0	74	77	31.0	57.0%
Mark Williams	25.0	48	60	23.6	68.0%
Jalen Green	28.0	51	32	25.9	51.6%
Luke Kennard	23.0	74	78	21.5	68.9%
Oso Ighodaro	18.0	76	82	22.1	63.6%
Jordan Goodwin	15.0	70	70	22.5	52.5%
Ryan Dunn	8.0	70	70	19.4	53.2%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): [['2026-12-01', -0.6], ['2027-01-01', -0.2], ['2027-05-01', 0.2]]

Golden State — projected net -0.67

Prior offense 113.8; defense allowed 114.4; pace 100.0. Projected offense relative to league -0.34; defense prevented -0.33.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	54.9%	55.3%
Turnover rate	15.6%	15.8%
Offensive rebound rate	30.2%	31.6%
FTA / FGA	0.238	0.247
Three-point attempt share	49.7%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Curry availability	+1.25	+0.00	More than 43 games, conservatively 60
Butler and Moody recovery	-0.55	-0.35	Fewer season minutes; February target is uncertain
Porzingis full season and rookie depth	+0.50	+0.20	Availability discounted; no Summer League scoring extrapolation
Aging	-0.20	-0.20	Core veterans remain high-variance

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Stephen Curry	31.0	60	43	30.9	63.7%
Brandin Podziemski	30.0	76	82	28.4	58.3%
Jimmy Butler III	28.0	24	38	31.1	64.6%
Draymond Green	28.0	67	68	27.5	54.0%
Kristaps Porziņģis	26.0	48	32	24.0	58.2%
Yaxel Lendeborg	25.0	66	0	0.0	Unavailable
De'Anthony Melton	22.0	60	49	23.0	51.8%
Gui Santos	20.0	69	68	20.5	60.9%
Al Horford	15.0	56	45	21.5	55.4%
Brandon Williams	15.0	68	66	22.2	57.2%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): [['2027-02-01', -1.0], ['2027-03-01', 0], ['2027-05-01', 1.2]]

Dallas — projected net -1.40

Prior offense 110.3; defense allowed 115.5; pace 102.6. Projected offense relative to league -1.15; defense prevented -0.25.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	52.7%	54.6%
Turnover rate	14.1%	12.9%
Offensive rebound rate	27.9%	29.8%
FTA / FGA	0.287	0.238
Three-point attempt share	35.5%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Irving return	+1.90	-0.10	Expected 58 games and 30 minutes, below pre-injury peak
Flagg development	+0.45	+0.35	Second-year gains on both ends
Frontcourt health and changes	+0.10	+0.35	Lively return plus Aldama; Thompson shooting departs

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Kyrie Irving	30.0	58	0	0.0	Unavailable
Max Christie	29.0	74	77	29.1	60.1%
Cooper Flagg	35.0	70	70	33.5	54.8%
P.J. Washington	29.0	63	56	31.0	53.7%
Daniel Gafford	24.0	62	55	21.7	67.7%
Dereck Lively II	20.0	56	7	16.5	67.0%
Naji Marshall	27.0	72	74	29.5	59.2%
Santi Aldama	21.0	56	43	27.9	57.2%
Zaccharie Risacher	17.0	68	67	22.4	55.7%
Marcus Sasser	8.0	54	38	12.0	53.3%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): [['2026-11-15', -0.4], ['2027-05-01', 0]]

Chicago — projected net -2.40

Prior offense 112.1; defense allowed 117.4; pace 103.2. Projected offense relative to league -1.23; defense prevented -1.17.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	54.7%	55.3%
Turnover rate	14.8%	12.5%
Offensive rebound rate	27.9%	29.2%
FTA / FGA	0.246	0.245
Three-point attempt share	44.3%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Powell and Claxton	+0.90	+0.55	Established scoring and interior defense
Youth and new roles	+0.25	+0.15	Buzelis and Wilson; rookie mistakes limit immediate value

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Josh Giddey	32.0	62	54	32.1	56.2%
Norman Powell	30.0	62	58	29.6	60.9%
Matas Buzelis	32.0	74	77	29.2	58.6%
Caleb Wilson	28.0	66	0	0.0	Unavailable
Nic Claxton	29.0	70	69	27.8	59.2%
Tre Jones	23.0	68	65	27.0	63.7%
Isaac Okoro	20.0	66	63	26.9	57.4%
Patrick Williams	18.0	71	72	20.5	49.4%
Jalen Smith	16.0	62	53	20.7	60.8%
Buddy Hield	12.0	58	51	16.1	56.8%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): None

New Orleans — projected net -2.79

Prior offense 113.3; defense allowed 117.6; pace 101.4. Projected offense relative to league -0.89; defense prevented -1.90.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	52.7%	55.5%
Turnover rate	13.9%	14.2%
Offensive rebound rate	31.1%	32.6%
FTA / FGA	0.284	0.258
Three-point attempt share	35.5%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Murray availability	+0.65	+0.15	Expected 55 games, below peak after injury
Young development and Mathurin	+0.45	+0.05	Creation and shooting progress
Zion availability normalization	-0.20	-0.10	Do not presume a further health improvement

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Dejounte Murray	29.0	45	14	27.8	58.0%
Trey Murphy III	34.0	68	66	35.5	61.3%
Herbert Jones	29.0	63	56	28.4	49.1%
Zion Williamson	30.0	58	62	29.7	64.4%
Derik Queen	26.0	76	81	25.0	54.6%
Jeremiah Fears	26.0	76	82	25.8	52.5%
Bennedict Mathurin	26.0	62	54	30.0	57.5%
Saddiq Bey	20.0	71	72	31.2	57.9%
Yves Missi	14.0	68	66	19.7	55.6%
Jordan Poole	6.0	54	39	23.9	53.0%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): None

LA Clippers — projected net -2.84

Prior offense 116.3; defense allowed 115.2; pace 97.3. Projected offense relative to league -1.37; defense prevented -1.47.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	55.9%	54.5%
Turnover rate	14.7%	14.6%
Offensive rebound rate	28.4%	31.9%
FTA / FGA	0.295	0.248
Three-point attempt share	40.4%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Lost Leonard and full-year reset	-2.20	-0.80	Harden and Zubac partial-year value also rolls off
Garland Ingram and replacement depth	+1.00	+0.15	Recover creation but limited elite defense
Rookie and integration cost	-0.20	-0.20	New combinations and rookie minutes

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Darius Garland	32.0	58	45	29.9	58.2%
Kris Dunn	24.0	76	82	27.2	58.1%
Brandon Ingram	33.0	74	77	33.8	57.3%
Rui Hachimura	28.0	69	68	28.3	62.0%
Brook Lopez	23.0	70	75	21.8	55.2%
Keaton Wagler	25.0	66	0	0.0	Unavailable
Derrick Jones Jr.	22.0	60	50	27.0	60.0%
Max Strus	22.0	45	12	24.0	60.9%
Isaiah Jackson	15.0	62	55	16.5	65.3%
Gradey Dick	16.0	73	76	14.0	53.8%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): None

Utah — projected net -2.95

Prior offense 112.7; defense allowed 120.8; pace 103.5. Projected offense relative to league -0.07; defense prevented -2.87.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	53.6%	57.8%
Turnover rate	14.9%	14.0%
Offensive rebound rate	29.8%	30.7%
FTA / FGA	0.277	0.292
Three-point attempt share	40.3%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Jackson full-season exposure	+0.55	+1.25	More than three Utah appearances
Markkanen and others availability	+0.85	+0.15	More starter minutes
Peterson and young development	+0.40	+0.30	Rookie value restrained
Center turnover and fit	-0.10	-0.30	Kessler loss partially offset

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Keyonte George	32.0	62	54	33.1	60.9%
Darryn Peterson	28.0	66	0	0.0	Unavailable
Lauri Markkanen	33.0	56	42	34.3	60.8%
Jaren Jackson Jr.	31.0	59	48	30.3	57.6%
Kyle Filipowski	27.0	74	77	23.4	58.6%
Ace Bailey	27.0	71	72	27.6	53.3%
Isaiah Collier	22.0	64	59	25.7	56.7%
Brice Sensabaugh	19.0	72	75	23.5	59.0%
Jaxson Hayes	12.0	68	66	18.3	75.8%
Josh Okogie	9.0	74	78	17.4	54.4%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): None

Washington — projected net -3.53

Prior offense 109.7; defense allowed 121.5; pace 102.5. Projected offense relative to league -0.65; defense prevented -2.88.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	53.5%	56.3%
Turnover rate	15.2%	13.4%
Offensive rebound rate	28.5%	33.6%
FTA / FGA	0.235	0.292
Three-point attempt share	40.3%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Young and Davis availability	+2.05	+1.10	Expected 60/48 games, not peak full seasons
Ayton and veteran rotation	+0.30	+0.15	More competent non-star minutes
Youth development and Dybantsa	+0.55	+0.35	Broad growth but rookies still make mistakes

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Trae Young	31.0	60	15	25.6	61.2%
Tre Johnson	27.0	65	60	24.0	53.5%
Kyshawn George	28.0	59	48	29.0	55.9%
Anthony Davis	30.0	48	20	31.3	55.1%
Alex Sarr	28.0	59	48	27.2	54.4%
AJ Dybantsa	26.0	66	0	0.0	Unavailable
Deandre Ayton	22.0	71	72	27.2	67.6%
Bilal Coulibaly	22.0	63	56	26.2	53.1%
Bub Carrington	18.0	76	82	27.7	55.6%
Khris Middleton	8.0	64	63	22.8	53.3%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): None

Memphis — projected net -4.23

Prior offense 112.4; defense allowed 118.4; pace 101.7. Projected offense relative to league -2.38; defense prevented -1.85.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	53.3%	56.2%
Turnover rate	14.8%	15.2%
Offensive rebound rate	30.1%	33.7%
FTA / FGA	0.251	0.262
Three-point attempt share	43.6%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Prior stars roll off	-0.80	-0.60	Morant and Jackson played partial prior seasons
Health and replacements	+0.65	+0.60	Edey, Grant and Stewart cover some losses
Boozer and young development	+0.40	+0.10	Positive long-term talent; restrained rookie value

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Walter Clayton Jr.	27.0	70	69	20.4	52.3%
Cedric Coward	29.0	66	62	25.8	58.5%
Jaylen Wells	29.0	70	69	26.4	55.9%
Cameron Boozer	30.0	66	0	0.0	Unavailable
Zach Edey	25.0	45	11	25.8	66.9%
Jerami Grant	25.0	64	57	29.7	60.8%
Cam Spencer	24.0	71	72	23.8	64.9%
Isaiah Stewart	18.0	64	58	22.7	63.2%
GG Jackson	20.0	62	55	21.4	59.1%
Kris Murray	13.0	64	57	23.4	55.0%

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): None

Sacramento — projected net -4.76

Prior offense 110.6; defense allowed 120.3; pace 100.1. Projected offense relative to league -1.96; defense prevented -2.81.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	52.5%	57.2%
Turnover rate	14.3%	13.9%
Offensive rebound rate	29.8%	31.5%
FTA / FGA	0.256	0.274
Three-point attempt share	33.9%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Sabonis and veteran availability	+1.55	+0.60	More than 19 Sabonis games; also Murray/LaVine/Hunter
DeRozan departure and rookie creation	-0.40	-0.05	Acuff not assigned established-star production
Young development	+0.30	+0.25	Some improvement in a weak baseline

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Darius Acuff Jr.	28.0	66	0	0.0	Unavailable
Zach LaVine	31.0	60	39	31.4	61.4%
De'Andre Hunter	27.0	58	45	26.1	54.5%
Keegan Murray	32.0	46	23	34.5	49.9%
Domantas Sabonis	31.0	65	19	29.7	59.0%
Malik Monk	24.0	66	62	22.0	56.8%
Maxime Raynaud	21.0	72	74	26.5	61.9%
Nique Clifford	21.0	72	75	25.1	50.5%
Precious Achiuwa	15.0	72	73	23.9	55.8%
Ben Simmons	10.0	66	0	0.0	Unavailable

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): None

Brooklyn — projected net -5.49

Prior offense 108.2; defense allowed 118.2; pace 97.6. Projected offense relative to league -3.26; defense prevented -2.22.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	52.0%	57.1%
Turnover rate	16.1%	14.8%
Offensive rebound rate	28.7%	31.3%
FTA / FGA	0.272	0.290
Three-point attempt share	45.4%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Randle addition and Claxton departure	+1.15	-0.35	More creation but less established center defense
Young guard development	+0.55	+0.30	Modest improvement spread across young players

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Egor Dëmin	27.0	61	52	25.2	56.1%
Keon Ellis	25.0	71	72	20.5	57.9%
Michael Porter Jr.	32.0	61	52	32.5	59.5%
Julius Randle	33.0	74	79	33.0	58.5%
Day'Ron Sharpe	27.0	14	62	18.7	63.8%
Noah Clowney	23.0	68	66	27.0	55.4%
Danny Wolf	20.0	64	57	20.8	52.1%
Nolan Traore	18.0	63	56	22.2	47.9%
Terance Mann	19.0	66	63	24.3	56.4%
Mikel Brown Jr.	16.0	66	0	0.0	Unavailable

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): None

Milwaukee — projected net -6.59

Prior offense 112.2; defense allowed 118.3; pace 98.3. Projected offense relative to league -3.51; defense prevented -3.08.

Observed 2025–26 profile	Team	Opponent
Effective FG%	56.5%	55.8%
Turnover rate	15.4%	13.2%
Offensive rebound rate	26.3%	30.5%
FTA / FGA	0.223	0.274
Three-point attempt share	45.7%	—

Projected change	Offense	Defense	Basketball reasoning
Giannis and Portis departure	-1.90	-0.60	Subtract their actual limited prior exposure
Herro Ware and young replacements	+1.00	+0.35	Creation and development partially offset
Rebuild fit	-0.20	-0.15	No assumed veteran deadline fire sale

Healthy rotation projection	Minutes	Expected games	Last-season games	Last-season MPG	Last-season TS%
Ryan Rollins	30.0	72	74	32.1	58.3%
Tyler Herro	33.0	52	33	31.3	60.2%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	27.0	72	75	28.3	57.0%
Kyle Kuzma	24.0	70	69	26.2	58.1%
Kel'el Ware	29.0	74	77	22.1	61.6%
Myles Turner	25.0	70	71	26.9	58.4%
AJ Green	23.0	74	78	29.1	62.7%
Kevin Porter Jr.	21.0	54	38	33.2	56.7%
Caris LeVert	16.0	65	60	19.2	51.8%
Brayden Burries	12.0	66	0	0.0	Unavailable

Roster: NBA team page · NBA season preview. Current roster identities were checked against the official 2026–27 roster API snapshot. Rotation minutes and availability are projections.

Recovery timing windows (exclusive end date, points / 100 before centering): None

A reproducible model, with its limits visible

Expected margin = (Portland strength − opponent strength + home court + relative rest + relative travel + altitude + matchup interaction + availability timing) × expected possessions / 100

Measured foundation. Four full seasons of NBA team game logs, 2022–23 through 2025–26. Estimate shared possessions as ½Σ(FGA + .44FTA − OREB + TOV). Fit team offense and defense against each opponent with home/rest controls and ridge regularization (10 for team coefficients, 1 for schedule coefficients). This uses full box scores; garbage-time-filtered possessions were unavailable.
Carry strength forward. Estimate year-to-year persistence on the two transitions ending in 2024–25. Retain 0.687 of the previous season's opponent-adjusted strength. Use 2025–26 data for the 2026–27 baseline. Regressing the baseline is not a claim that roster continuity has no value.
Apply roster and development assumptions. Add the published offense/defense ledger, then center all 30 teams. No odds, betting totals or implied market probabilities enter this calculation.
Apply the actual schedule. Calculate both teams' rest and travel from the full 1,200 initially assigned league games. Pace is 60% previous team pace, 40% league average. Neutral venues receive no home-court advantage. NBA Cup-dependent sequences are unresolved until assigned.
Convert margins to probabilities. A normal game-margin distribution with shared team-strength and availability draws produces a conditional win probability. Average over 200,000 simulated seasons. Game-level standard deviation also changes slightly with pace and both teams' three-point attempt share.
Sum the probabilities. Expected final wins = actual wins + sum of remaining game probabilities. Simulate the full season with the same team-strength draw reused for repeat opponents and all Portland games.

Parameter	Value	Evidence / status
Home court	1.805	Estimated from 2023–24 and 2024–25 logs; points / 100
Back-to-back	-2.622	Estimated penalty relative to opponent
Third game in four nights	-0.207	Estimated incremental penalty
Two or more rest days	0.476	Estimated bonus relative to opponent
Single-game residual SD	13.571 points	Estimated historical margin residual
Season team-strength SD	3.978 / 100	Empirical year-to-year error; 60 team-season transitions
Long trip / eastward travel	−0.15 / −0.10	Small judgment adjustments on 0–1 rest days; >1,500 miles / ≥2 zones
Denver / Utah altitude	+0.30 to home team	Judgment, kept small beyond home court
Turnover / rebound / foul interactions	0.10 / 0.10 / 0.05	Judgment multipliers on standardized profile cross-products
Maximum matchup adjustment	±0.60	Judgment cap; guards against storytelling dominating ratings
Three-point variance coefficient	0.30	Judgment: scales game SD, not expected margin
Update prior	20 games	Independent preseason ratings remain the regularized update center

What was tested

A locked prior-season rating benchmark forecast all 1,230 games of 2025–26 using only earlier-season ratings and previously estimated coefficients. Brier score: 0.2333 versus 0.2500 for a constant 50% forecast. Log loss: 0.6584. Winner accuracy: 59.3%. Actual 2025–26 team ratings were not used to forecast those test games.

This validates only the statistical foundation. It does not validate the subjective 2026–27 roster changes, individual impact grades, return scenarios or season-total tail probabilities. The two training transitions are a limited sample. No claim of a demonstrated betting edge follows from this backtest.

Unavailable or deliberately limited inputs

No proprietary shot-quality tracking, consistently garbage-time-filtered possessions, reliable projected-lineup adjusted plus-minus, actual flight/sleep itineraries, or known future trade decisions were available. Shooting profile uses public box-score eFG%, true shooting and three-point attempt share; these are not tracking-based shot quality. Lineup fit is a small documented judgment adjustment. Expected development is conservative and explicit; preseason shooting percentages do not change the statistical strength fit.

Season uncertainty and sensitivity

Drawing 82 independent coins with fixed win probabilities understates the chance of an unexpectedly good or bad season. This simulation draws a season-level strength error for every team and reuses it across all games. Health variation uses player availability fractions drawn from Beta distributions; a key player's lost season minutes therefore affect many games together. Explicit health variance is subtracted from the empirical strength-uncertainty budget before residual strength is drawn, avoiding a second full injury penalty.

Availability uncertainty is an aggregate season effect, not an explicit day-by-day injury simulator. Only the seven largest projected rotation roles per team contribute individually to the health component; other injuries and changing roles are absorbed in residual team uncertainty. Beta concentration is 10 when expected availability is below 75%, otherwise 18. Full-availability player weights are subjective. The underlying empirical team-change SD is 3.98 points / 100.

If the Portland basketball assessment is wrong

Hold opponents, schedule and random draws fixed, and shift Portland's true net strength. This isolates how much the answer depends on the roster and recovery assessment.

Portland strength scenario	Expected wins	45+	50+
-2 points / 100	40.4	33.6%	17.6%
-1 points / 100	42.5	42.1%	23.9%
+0 points / 100	44.6	51.0%	31.3%
+1 points / 100	46.7	59.8%	39.6%
+2 points / 100	48.8	68.1%	48.4%

A broad interval is intentional. A coaching change, both new guards being healthier than assumed, or stronger development can raise the season together; a major absence or poor guard-defense fit can lower it together. The present probabilities should be treated as a decision aid, not sure things. Independent analysis does not eliminate judgment or model error.

Forecast history and future accountability

Snapshot / model	Expected wins	80% range	45+	50+
October 10 • original market-anchored	41.46	32–50	33.3%	12.5%
October 10 • independent basketball	44.61	32–57	51.0%	31.3%

The +3.14-win difference is a methodology replacement requested by the user, not a postgame revision. The wider interval reflects an empirical year-to-year uncertainty model rather than the original narrower prior. Original ratings, per-game probabilities, parameters, history and builder are preserved in this report's embedded state/source and the companion model bundle. They are never retroactively labeled independent forecasts.

No regular-season games have been processed; prospective Brier score and log loss are therefore not yet available. The known October 7 preseason win is baseline context, not a new forecast alert.

Postgame update protocol

Verify official final results, map schedule IDs to NBA game IDs, deduplicate, and process missed results chronologically. Archive the forecast before replacing it. Preseason results inform rotations only and never count toward the regular-season record or rating fit. Update all 30 teams with one regularized margin fit centered on this independent preseason rating and a 20-game prior. Prefer consistently possession-adjusted, garbage-time-filtered margins; otherwise use score margins clipped at ±25 and disclose the fallback. Do not add a second win/loss update to the same game.

Refresh roster and availability evidence, both teams' rest/travel and Cup assignments; replace average health assumptions with sourced near-term scenarios without double counting. Recompute actual wins plus remaining probabilities and the shared-uncertainty simulation. Attribute the mechanical result effect separately from ability revisions. Score only probabilities genuinely saved before each game; preserve separate original-market, independent-preseason and latest-pregame scores. A postgame watch is not a closing-line forecast. After game 82, produce the final review and stop the watch.

Sources and reproducibility

All sources were accessed for the October 10, 2026 snapshot. Each team panel links its official preview and roster. The companion bundle preserves the exact NBA JSON snapshots and their endpoint URLs, plus the numerical inputs, fitted coefficients, builder, renderer, original forecast and new state.

Exact NBA API snapshot inventory

Reproduce offline with Python 3, NumPy and SciPy: python calibrate_independent.py, python build_independent.py, then python render_independent.py. The builder recreates this preseason snapshot only; do not run it over a postgame state. Future edits must preserve actual results and archived probabilities.