GSW

2025-26 Season

JIMMY BUTLER III

Golden State Warriors | Forward | 6-6
Jimmy Butler III
20.0PPG
5.6RPG
4.9APG
31.1MPG
+14.7 Impact

III produces at an elite rate for a 31-minute workload.

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IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
+14.7
Scoring +18.1
Points Scored 20.0 PPG = +20.0
Missed Shots difficulty-adjusted = -4.9
Shot Making above expected FG% = +3.0
Creation +2.2
Assists & Self-Creation 4.9 AST/g + self-creation = +2.2
Turnovers -3.8
Turnovers 1.6/g (live + dead blend) = -3.8
Defense +2.5
Steals 1.4/g = +3.2
Blocks 0.2/g = +0.2
Fouls + context committed fouls, matchup adj = -0.9
Hustle & Effort +5.6
Rebounds 5.6 RPG (OREB + DREB) = +2.6
Contested Shots 2.4/g = +0.5
Deflections 2.5/g = +1.6
Charges Drawn 0.0/g = +0.1
Loose Balls 0.9/g = +0.5
Screen Assists 0.9/g = +0.3
Raw Impact +24.6
Baseline (game-average expected) −9.9
Net Impact
+14.7
94th pctl vs Forwards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 235 Forwards with 10+ games

Scoring 90th
20.0 PPG
Efficiency 95th
65.1% TS
Playmaking 93th
4.9 APG
Rebounding 76th
5.6 RPG
Defense 83th
+10.0/g
Hustle 47th
+11.7/g
Creation 91th
+4.51/g
Shot Making 67th
+7.01/g
TO Discipline 40th
0.05/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

Jimmy Butler opened the 2025-26 campaign operating with ruthless, surgical efficiency rather than sheer volume. He set the tone immediately on 10/21 vs LAL, dropping 31 points on merely 14 shot attempts to generate a massive +27.6 Impact score. That staggering metric reflected his relentless ability to draw contact and maximize every offensive possession without forcing bad looks. His only real misstep came during the 11/05 vs PHX matchup, where a quick 14-minute stint yielded just two points on 1-of-5 shooting for a -9.2 Impact score. Because his shot refused to fall and his court time was abruptly slashed, his lack of offensive gravity dragged down the entire lineup. He quickly banished that ghost on 11/13 vs SAS, erupting for 28 points and eight assists. By nailing five of his seven three-point attempts and orchestrating the offense flawlessly, Butler posted a dominant +34.9 Impact score to remind the league of his elite two-way ceiling.

A masterclass in aging gracefully defined this stretch of the season, as Jimmy Butler relied on ruthless efficiency and defensive grit to dictate the pace of games. During the 11/19 vs ORL matchup, he torched the defense for 33 points on crisp 10-for-16 shooting, generating a massive +29.5 Impact through pristine shot selection. Just three days later, his jumper vanished during a 5-for-15 shooting night on 11/22 vs POR, yet he still managed a stellar +21.7 Impact. Butler salvaged that ugly offensive outing by crashing the glass for 8 rebounds, dishing 5 assists, and suffocating his matchups with relentless hustle and off-ball pressure. The only real blemish arrived on 12/03 vs OKC. Limited to just 15 minutes, he sleepwalked to 6 points on 2-for-7 shooting, resulting in a -6.5 Impact as his usual playmaking spark completely evaporated. Ultimately, this run revealed a veteran who knows exactly how to manipulate the margins to win.

This midseason stretch was defined by a classic veteran slow-burn, transitioning from passive facilitation into ruthless, high-efficiency scoring. On 12/25 vs DAL, Butler flirted with a triple-double by posting 14 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists. Yet he registered a pedestrian +0.4 Impact in that contest because he deferred too often, taking just ten shots instead of pressuring the defense as a primary scoring threat. The switch flipped in mid-January. Carving up the opposition during a 01/16 vs NYK masterclass, Butler poured in 32 points on 14-of-22 shooting to generate a massive +35.4 Impact. He delivered a similarly dominant performance on 01/12 vs ATL, where his 30 points and aggressive shot creation earned a +27.7 Impact. When Butler stops overpassing and hunts his own offense with this level of surgical accuracy, he remains an absolute nightmare for any defensive scheme.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Very consistent. III posts positive impact in 95% of games — you almost always get a productive night. Scoring varies by ~7 points, but the overall contribution stays positive.

Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 68% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.

Defensive difference-maker. III consistently forces tough shots and protects the rim — opponents shoot worse when he's guarding them.

Performance has dropped off. First-half impact: +16.8, second-half: +12.7. Worth watching whether it's fatigue, injury, or opponents adjusting.

Hot right now — 18 straight games with positive impact. Longest positive run this season: 18 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY ⚠ Updated 56 days ago

Based on 39 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

J. Grant 61.9 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.16
PTS 10
A. Gordon 44.3 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.09
PTS 4
K. Leonard 41.9 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.33
PTS 14
J. Randle 37.6 poss
FG% 75.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.16
PTS 6
K. Kuzma 35.3 poss
FG% 75.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.28
PTS 10
J. Johnson 35.2 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.06
PTS 2
S. Mykhailiuk 33.4 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.24
PTS 8
D. Avdija 33.2 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.12
PTS 4
O. Anunoby 33.0 poss
FG% 85.7%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.39
PTS 13
S. Cissoko 32.8 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.34
PTS 11

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

K. Leonard 51.6 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.29
PTS 15
D. Avdija 49.7 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 20.0%
PPP 0.18
PTS 9
T. Camara 46.7 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.13
PTS 6
L. Markkanen 41.4 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 25.0%
PPP 0.24
PTS 10
A. Gordon 40.0 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.17
PTS 7
J. Grant 39.5 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.18
PTS 7
H. Barnes 37.5 poss
FG% 83.3%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.35
PTS 13
D. Booker 36.0 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.17
PTS 6
J. Randle 33.9 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.21
PTS 7
S. Bey 32.2 poss
FG% 22.2%
3P% 20.0%
PPP 0.16
PTS 5

SEASON STATS

38
Games
20.0
PPG
5.6
RPG
4.9
APG
1.4
SPG
0.2
BPG
51.9
FG%
37.6
3P%
86.4
FT%
31.1
MPG

GAME LOG

38 games played