PHX

2025-26 Season

ROYCE O'NEALE

Phoenix Suns | Forward | 6-6
Royce O'Neale
9.8 PPG
4.8 RPG
2.6 APG
28.3 MPG
+0.2 Impact

O'Neale produces at an average rate for a 28-minute workload.

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NET IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
+0.2
Scoring +9.0
Points 9.8 PPG = +6.1
Shot Making above expected FG% = +2.9
Creation +0.4
Creation 2.6 AST/g = +0.4
Turnovers -3.0
Turnovers 1.3/g = -3.0
Defense +0.7
Defense 1.1 STL, 0.4 BLK = +0.7
Hustle & Effort +3.1
Rebounds 4.8 RPG = +3.1
Raw Impact +10.2
Baseline (game-average expected) −10.0
Net Impact
+0.2
54th pctl vs Forwards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 234 Forwards with 10+ games

Scoring 54th
9.8 PPG
Efficiency 72th
59.9% TS
Playmaking 76th
2.6 APG
Rebounding 58th
4.8 RPG
Defense 68th
+8.1/g
Hustle 81th
+16.5/g
Creation 53th
+2.49/g
Shot Making 61th
+6.69/g
TO Discipline 52th
0.05/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

A frustrating pattern of empty-calorie shooting and defensive lapses defined Royce O'Neale's early-season transition into the starting lineup. Look at his performance on 11/21 vs MIN as a prime example of this deceptive production. He tallied an efficient 16 points, yet his overall impact score cratered to a dismal -4.8. The hidden costs were glaring, as blown assignments on the perimeter and poor navigation of off-ball screens completely erased the value of his jumper. He occasionally found the right balance as a glue guy, like on 11/10 vs NOP when he posted a +3.6 impact by spacing the floor immaculately and punishing late rotations. Too often, however, his floor game completely collapsed when his shot stopped falling. During a brutal 11/16 vs ATL matchup, a miserable 1-for-9 shooting slump dragged his impact down to a staggering -12.9. Ultimately, passive offensive involvement and sluggish transition defense made him a heavy burden throughout this stretch.

This stretch of the season was defined by maddening inconsistency, with Royce O'Neale oscillating wildly between a vital two-way glue guy and an outright offensive liability. Even when his perimeter stroke caught fire, hidden mistakes often dragged his overall value into the red. Look no further than 12/27 vs NOP, where he drilled five threes for 15 points but still posted a -2.2 impact score because underlying errors completely erased his spacing value. Conversely, when the jumper vanished entirely, the results were disastrous. During 12/31 vs CLE, his bricklaying from beyond the arc allowed defenders to sag off him, resulting in an ugly -14.9 impact score. Yet, O'Neale occasionally managed to redeem himself without filling the scoring column. On 01/02 vs SAC, he managed just seven points while shooting a frigid 1-for-5 from deep, but relentless passing lane activity and superb weak-side rotations salvaged a +2.9 impact score.

This twenty-game stretch was defined by a brutal, prolonged slump where Royce O'Neale's one-dimensional shot profile actively hurt his team. He routinely settled for perimeter jumpers rather than attacking closeouts, allowing defenders to sag off and clog passing lanes. During an ugly 02/03 vs POR matchup, he tallied 11 points and seven rebounds but posted a disastrous -12.0 impact score because costly transition mistakes completely ruined his strong rotational defense. His offensive invisibility hit rock bottom on 02/22 vs POR. Failing to score a single point, he generated a staggering -12.6 impact rating. There were fleeting moments of value, like his +4.1 impact performance on 02/07 vs PHI where 14 points and 11 rebounds fueled a quintessential 3-and-D masterclass. Ultimately, a few nights of elite floor-spacing could not mask the glaring defensive lapses and offensive passivity that plagued his minutes.

A jarring late-season demotion to the bench defined this volatile stretch for Royce O'Neale, whose value wildly oscillated between elite two-way execution and complete defensive apathy. Look no further than the Mar 06 vs NOP matchup, where he scored 11 points but posted a catastrophic -17.7 impact score because invisible rotations yielded a brutal -9.4 defensive rating. He flashed his absolute ceiling shortly after on Mar 10 vs MIL. Pouring in 21 points on 7-of-11 shooting from deep, he earned a +8.0 impact score through elite floor-spacing and perimeter containment. Even when his shot abandoned him, O'Neale could still flip a game through sheer grit. During the Apr 14 vs POR contest, he scored a mere 7 points but generated a massive +13.8 impact score by suffocating opponents to the tune of a +10.2 defensive rating and adding +4.5 in hustle metrics. Ultimately, this sample revealed a frustratingly inconsistent veteran who can either anchor a lineup with lockdown defense or sink it entirely with extreme passivity.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Boom-or-bust player. O'Neale's impact swings wildly relative to his average — some nights dominant, others invisible. Scoring varies by ~4 points per game.

Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 43% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.

Defensive difference-maker. O'Neale consistently forces tough shots and protects the rim — opponents shoot worse when he's guarding them.

Small downward trend. First-half impact: +1.1, second-half: -0.8. Not alarming yet, but trending the wrong direction.

Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 4 games. Longest cold streak: 6 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY

Based on 75 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

D. DeRozan 79.2 poss
FG% 22.2%
3P% 22.2%
PPP 0.08
PTS 6
T. Murphy III 67.6 poss
FG% 44.4%
3P% 37.5%
PPP 0.16
PTS 11
L. Markkanen 61.0 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.03
PTS 2
J. Williams 57.0 poss
FG% 80.0%
3P% 75.0%
PPP 0.19
PTS 11
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
L. James 54.2 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.22
PTS 12
S. Curry 45.9 poss
FG% 16.7%
3P% 20.0%
PPP 0.07
PTS 3
H. Barnes 44.5 poss
FG% 60.0%
3P% 75.0%
PPP 0.2
PTS 9
J. Collins 44.3 poss
FG% 41.7%
3P% 41.7%
PPP 0.34
PTS 15
C. Flagg 42.6 poss
FG% 25.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.07
PTS 3

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

D. DeRozan 76.8 poss
FG% 72.7%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.26
PTS 20
J. Collins 66.6 poss
FG% 41.7%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.15
PTS 10
J. McDaniels 64.5 poss
FG% 22.2%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.06
PTS 4
L. James 64.4 poss
FG% 28.6%
3P% 16.7%
PPP 0.14
PTS 9
L. Markkanen 60.5 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.35
PTS 21
S. Bey 55.2 poss
FG% 80.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.22
PTS 12
C. Holmgren 49.6 poss
FG% 72.7%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.42
PTS 21
H. Barnes 45.7 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 33.3%
PPP 0.11
PTS 5
P. Banchero 44.2 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.38
PTS 17
J. Grant 43.6 poss
FG% 40.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.09
PTS 4

SEASON STATS

80
Games
9.8
PPG
4.8
RPG
2.6
APG
1.1
SPG
0.4
BPG
42.1
FG%
40.5
3P%
71.1
FT%
28.3
MPG

GAME LOG

80 games played