2025-26 Season
JABARI SMITH JR.
2025-26 Season
JABARI SMITH JR.
PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology
TEAM COMPARISON
of 12 teammates (10+ games, 10+ min)
Similar Players
Same position, closest production profile this season.
SKILL DNA
Percentile rank vs 234 Forwards with 10+ games
THE SEASON SO FAR
Jabari Smith Jr.’s opening stretch of the 2025-26 campaign was defined by maddening inconsistency, as poor shot selection and hidden defensive costs repeatedly sabotaged his overall effectiveness. This frustrating dynamic peaked during the 11/21 vs DEN matchup. While he stuffed the box score with 21 points and 11 rebounds, a brutal interior shooting performance and massive volume of missed shots dragged his actual impact down to an abysmal -7.4. Even when his jumper fell efficiently, defensive lapses ruined his nights. During the 11/05 vs MEM game, he scored 16 points on just eight shots but posted a horrific -10.4 impact score because he bled points on the other end of the floor. Still, Smith offered flashes of his true ceiling when he fully engaged his physical tools. On 10/27 vs BKN, he managed a meager 11 points but generated a highly valuable +4.3 impact score, utilizing smothering perimeter defense and flawless switchability to influence winning without needing to score. Until he stops settling for heavily contested jumpers and tightens his pick-and-roll coverages, these wild swings will continue to plague his season.
A brutal slump defined this twenty-game stretch for Jabari Smith Jr., as a heavy diet of clanked perimeter jumpers constantly sabotaged his on-court value. Even when the ball occasionally went through the hoop, hidden costs dragged him down. Look at the 12/06 vs DAL matchup, where he poured in 22 points but still posted a -0.4 impact score because empty possessions and poor spacing ruined the offensive flow. His shot selection hit absolute rock bottom on 12/18 vs NOP. Forced perimeter looks completely cratered his efficiency that night, resulting in a disastrous -25.6 impact rating. He occasionally found other ways to survive. During a quiet 11-point outing on 01/23 vs DET, Smith Jr. salvaged a +4.4 impact mark through relentless hustle plays that kept possessions alive. Still, this erratic stretch revealed a forward relying far too heavily on contested jumpers rather than letting the game come to him.
This stretch was a maddening pendulum swing between two-way dominance and passive, perimeter-floating irrelevance. When Smith fully engaged on both ends of the floor, he looked unstoppable, peaking on 02/23 vs UTA with 31 points and a massive +18.3 impact score. That elite rating stemmed directly from lethal shot-making paired with suffocating switch defense that completely disrupted the opposing offense. Yet, he frequently sabotaged his own value by settling for terrible looks, perfectly illustrated on 02/11 vs LAC. Despite logging a robust 16 points and 12 rebounds in that contest, his heavy reliance on perimeter isolation killed ball movement and dragged him down to a -4.1 impact score. The floor fell out entirely on 03/05 vs GSW. A catastrophic 0-for-8 shooting night tanked his impact to a brutal -20.6, exposing just how fragile his overall utility becomes when the jumper stops falling.
IMPACT TIMELINE
Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.
Very consistent. Jr. posts positive impact in 78% of games — you almost always get a productive night. Scoring varies by ~5 points, but the overall contribution stays positive.
Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 54% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.
Defensive difference-maker. Jr. consistently forces tough shots and protects the rim — opponents shoot worse when he's guarding them.
Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 13 games. Longest cold streak: 3 games.
MATCHUP HISTORY
Based on 74 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.
ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM
His shooting stats against each primary defender this season
ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED
How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.
SEASON STATS
GAME LOG
78 games played
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