2025-26 Season

DENI AVDIJA

Portland Trail Blazers | Forward | 6-8

2025-26 Season

DENI AVDIJA

Portland Trail Blazers | Forward | 6-8 | Yr 5

24.5 PPG

6.9 RPG

6.8 APG

33.4 MPG

+11.0 Impact

Avdija produces at an elite rate for a 33-minute workload.

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NET IMPACT BREAKDOWN

Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average

+11.0

Scoring +21.6

Points 24.5 PPG = +17.3

Shot Making above expected FG% = +4.3

Creation +3.1

Creation 6.8 AST/g = +3.1

Turnovers -9.4

Turnovers 3.9/g = -9.4

Defense -0.5

Defense 0.8 STL, 0.6 BLK = -0.5

Hustle & Effort +5.6

Rebounds 6.9 RPG = +5.6

Raw Impact +20.4

Baseline (game-average expected) −9.4

Net Impact

+11.0

89th pctl vs Forwards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

TEAM COMPARISON

Impact

Creation

Hustle

#11

Defense

of 17 teammates (10+ games, 10+ min)

Donovan Clingan +12.2 Deni Avdija +11.0 Shaedon Sharpe +7.6 Jrue Holiday +5.0 Jerami Grant +4.5 Robert Williams III +4.0 Toumani Camara +2.9 Caleb Love -0.2 Scoot Henderson -0.4 Matisse Thybulle -1.6 Kris Murray -2.8 Vít Krejčí -3.6 Duop Reath -4.1 Blake Wesley -6.1 Rayan Rupert -6.8 Sidy Cissoko -7.6 Hansen Yang -9.2

Similar Players

Same position, closest production profile this season.

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 234 Forwards with 10+ games

Scoring 96th

24.8 PPG

Efficiency 73th

60.0% TS

Playmaking 98th

6.9 APG

Rebounding 90th

7.0 RPG

Defense 32th

+6.0/g

Hustle 90th

+18.3/g

Creation 99th

+6.10/g

Shot Making 92th

+9.28/g

TO Discipline 0th

0.12/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

Deni Avdija’s opening twenty games were defined by a maddening duality, where explosive scoring binges routinely masked catastrophic lapses in judgment. He constantly filled up the stat sheet, but those raw point totals often carried severe hidden costs. During the 10/31 vs DEN matchup, his 23 points were entirely negated by a brutal defensive performance where he repeatedly lost his man on backdoor cuts, dragging his impact score down to -3.5. The exact same frustrating trend surfaced on 11/14 vs HOU. Despite pouring in 22 points, his overall impact plummeted to a disastrous -11.7 because costly live-ball turnovers constantly handed the opposition easy points. He becomes a genuinely dominant force when he leans into his peripheral skills instead of just hunting shots. Look at the 11/30 vs OKC game for the perfect blueprint. Even while going completely cold from beyond the arc, he posted a massive +16.6 impact score by absolutely dominating the defensive glass for 19 rebounds and using elite playmaking to orchestrate the offense.

Deni Avdija’s mid-season stretch was a volatile experiment in primary initiation, marked by wild swings between offensive dominance and self-destructive decision-making. The hidden costs of his expanded role were glaring on 12/29 vs DAL. Despite stuffing the stat sheet with 27 points and 11 assists, a brutal string of live-ball turnovers in traffic tanked his overall value to a dismal -7.1 impact score. Two nights later on 12/31 vs OKC, poor shot selection completely erased his relentless motor and elite defensive rotations, dragging him down to a -9.0 impact score. The lows were entirely self-inflicted. Yet, when he reined in the chaos and picked his spots, Avdija looked like an unstoppable force. He bullied defenders on 01/05 vs UTA, leveraging his size to create mismatches as a primary offensive engine. That disciplined, downhill approach yielded 33 points and a massive +15.5 impact score, revealing the terrifying ceiling of his jumbo playmaking.

This stretch was defined by a maddening tug-of-war between high-usage playmaking and catastrophic shooting inefficiency. Avdija frequently stuffed the stat sheet, but his erratic shot selection actively sabotaged his overall value. Look no further than 03/15 vs PHI. He tallied 25 points and 9 assists, yet generated a dismal -6.4 impact score because he relentlessly forced the issue from beyond the arc. The same hidden costs ruined his outing during 02/20 vs DEN, where 13 assists were entirely negated by a -12.0 impact score driven by his complete inability to space the floor. When he stopped settling, the results flipped entirely. During 02/09 vs PHI, Avdija posted a dominant +15.0 impact score by leaning on elite playmaking from the forward position and aggressive downhill attacks rather than perimeter chucking. Until he exorcises these bad shooting habits, his actual on-court value will remain wildly unpredictable.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

Best Game

31 PTS vs OKC

Nov 30 | +37.2 impact

Worst Game

11 PTS vs MIN

Feb 11 | -10.9 impact

PATTERNS

Very consistent. Avdija posts positive impact in 91% of games — you almost always get a productive night. Scoring varies by ~7 points, but the overall contribution stays positive.

Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 55% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.

Good defender on his best nights, but it comes and goes. Some games Avdija locks in defensively, others he gets picked apart.

Hot right now — 14 straight games with positive impact. Longest positive run this season: 16 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY

Based on 77 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.