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"opponent_code": "NYK", "home": true, "venue": "Home", "strength_margin": -0.6108453356860977, "home_points": 1.8046611814324685, "rest_points": 0.0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "timing_points": 0.020625000000000004, "matchup_points": -0.4461860028269762, "pace": 99.88866666666665, "expected_margin": 0.7673995191942776, "game_sd": 13.681407119976738, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 981, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Brunson hunts switches; Towns stretches the rim protector.", "schedule_note": "No major schedule disadvantage", "result": null, "actual_margin": null, "win_probability": 0.5204593918708634 }, { "id": "NBA26-527", "date": "2027-01-06", "opponent": "New Orleans", "opponent_code": "NOP", "home": false, "venue": "Away", "strength_margin": 4.556520488671196, "home_points": -1.8046611814324685, "rest_points": 0.0, "travel_points": -0.25, "altitude_points": 0, 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"NBA26-584", "date": "2027-01-13", "opponent": "LA Lakers", "opponent_code": "LAL", "home": true, "venue": "Home", "strength_margin": 1.757758294371301, "home_points": 1.8046611814324685, "rest_points": -2.6218193322125694, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "timing_points": 0.020625000000000004, "matchup_points": -0.3151042263298579, "pace": 100.34166666666665, "expected_margin": 0.648328497061985, "game_sd": 13.642688431250821, "portland_rest": 0, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 831, "portland_b2b": true, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Pre-switch guard mismatches against Doncic; attack non-Luka minutes.", "schedule_note": "POR back-to-back", "result": null, "actual_margin": null, "win_probability": 0.5172790974928864 }, { "id": "NBA26-599", "date": "2027-01-15", "opponent": "Sacramento", "opponent_code": "SAC", "home": true, "venue": "Home", "strength_margin": 6.527168113582873, "home_points": 1.8046611814324685, 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"result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-226", "date": "2026-11-11", "opponent": "Oklahoma City", "opponent_code": "OKC", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.296747029629865, "expected_margin": -6.565976742942643, "strength_margin": -7.940976742942643, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0.0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.5, "timing_points": -0.325, "portland_rest": 0, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": true, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "SGA and Holmgren stretch the defense; Portland must avoid turnovers and generate good first shots.", "schedule_note": "POR back-to-back; OKC back-to-back; Availability timing -0.3 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-41", "date": "2026-11-13", "opponent": "Sacramento", "opponent_code": "SAC", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.688259765539039, "expected_margin": 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"opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 1511, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Edwards attacks small guards and Gobert guards the rim; pull-up shooting is Portland\u2019s release valve.", "schedule_note": "Net schedule +0.2 pts; Availability timing -0.3 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-254", "date": "2026-11-17", "opponent": "Minnesota", "opponent_code": "MIN", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.33863854728330756, "expected_margin": -5.119414794975525, "strength_margin": -2.4444147949755246, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0.3500000000000001, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.5, "timing_points": -0.325, "portland_rest": 0, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": true, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Edwards attacks small guards and Gobert guards the rim; pull-up shooting is Portland\u2019s release valve.", "schedule_note": "POR back-to-back; MIN back-to-back; MIN 3-in-4; Net schedule +0.4 pts; Availability timing -0.3 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-271", "date": "2026-11-19", "opponent": "Milwaukee", "opponent_code": "MIL", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.6857396850128863, "expected_margin": 5.951307008833158, "strength_margin": 7.026307008833158, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0.9, "travel_points": 0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": -0.325, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 298, "opponent_miles": 1271, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Make Herro defend actions; contain Ware rolls without giving away corner threes.", "schedule_note": "MIL back-to-back; POR 3-in-4; Net schedule +1.2 pts; Availability timing -0.3 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-275", "date": "2026-11-21", "opponent": "New York", "opponent_code": "NYK", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.30158432717301575, "expected_margin": -6.394621147286934, "strength_margin": -3.8696211472869333, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.4, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 732, "opponent_miles": 1016, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Brunson can hunt small defenders; Towns spacing forces Clingan away from the rim.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-288", "date": "2026-11-23", "opponent": "Philadelphia", "opponent_code": "PHI", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.32492319503744854, "expected_margin": -5.584315064816178, "strength_margin": -3.059315064816178, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.4, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 83, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Embiid and the large perimeter creators test fouls and switching; actual availability will dominate this matchup.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-63", "date": "2026-11-25", "opponent": "San Antonio", "opponent_code": "SAS", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.33902476086909616, "expected_margin": -5.106431915222506, "strength_margin": -6.4314319152225075, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": -0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.6, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 2405, "opponent_miles": 484, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": true, "rationale": "Wembanyama reduces easy finishes and putbacks; Portland needs credible shooting above the break.", "schedule_note": "Net schedule -0.3 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-74", "date": "2026-11-27", "opponent": "Golden State", "opponent_code": "GSW", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.6274328313665127, "expected_margin": 3.9985568272737098, "strength_margin": 1.1835568272737098, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.2, "timing_points": 0.815, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 536, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": true, "rationale": "Curry movement tests communication; punish switches without letting the offense become static.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge; Availability timing +0.8 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-309", "date": "2026-11-29", "opponent": "New Orleans", "opponent_code": "NOP", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.7566889739911544, "expected_margin": 8.55764168648809, "strength_margin": 6.082641686488092, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 831, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Build a wall against Williamson; force contested jumpers without abandoning Murphy.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-325", "date": "2026-12-01", "opponent": "Minnesota", "opponent_code": "MIN", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.4783003040417228, "expected_margin": -0.6694147949755245, "strength_margin": -2.4444147949755246, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.5, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 484, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Edwards attacks small guards and Gobert guards the rim; pull-up shooting is Portland\u2019s release valve.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-340", "date": "2026-12-03", "opponent": "Utah", "opponent_code": "UTA", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.6396751218831319, "expected_margin": 4.398690736621013, "strength_margin": 2.3236907366210136, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 536, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Jackson and Markkanen stretch frontcourt coverage; attack carefully rather than driving into help.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "CUP-TBD-1", "date": null, "opponent": "NBA Cup-dependent opponent", "opponent_code": "TBD", "venue": "TBD", "home": null, "win_probability": 0.5253773012744103, "expected_margin": null, "rationale": "Conference-average opponent prior. Opponent, venue and date await Cup results; not a scheduled matchup.", "schedule_note": "Dec 4\u201310 window", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "CUP-TBD-2", "date": null, "opponent": "NBA Cup-dependent opponent", "opponent_code": "TBD", "venue": "TBD", "home": null, "win_probability": 0.5253773012744103, "expected_margin": null, "rationale": "Conference-average opponent prior. Opponent, venue and date await Cup results; not a scheduled matchup.", "schedule_note": "Dec 4\u201310 window", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-348", "date": "2026-12-12", "opponent": "Atlanta", "opponent_code": "ATL", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.5484620123862922, "expected_margin": 1.497963110679988, "strength_margin": -0.27703688932001225, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.5, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": null, "opponent_rest": null, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Daniels and Dort pressure the ball; prioritize secure entries and avoid live-ball turnovers.", "schedule_note": "Rest/travel after Cup window TBD", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-367", "date": "2026-12-15", "opponent": "Denver", "opponent_code": "DEN", "venue": "Home", "home": true, 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CHA 3-in-4; Net schedule +1.6 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-413", "date": "2026-12-21", "opponent": "Brooklyn", "opponent_code": "BKN", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.712017512763282, "expected_margin": 6.879757696450749, "strength_margin": 7.2047576964507485, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 1.6, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 530, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Attack the guards while keeping a body on Randle; do not concede easy transition possessions.", "schedule_note": "BKN back-to-back; BKN 3-in-4; Net schedule +1.6 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-426", "date": "2026-12-23", "opponent": "Boston", "opponent_code": "BOS", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.3090226603462142, "expected_margin": -6.133513323150308, "strength_margin": -3.4585133231503082, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": -0.25, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.3, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 2, "portland_miles": 190, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Tatum forces difficult wing assignments; win non-star minutes and defend the arc without overhelping.", "schedule_note": "Net schedule -0.2 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-438", "date": "2026-12-26", "opponent": "Washington", "opponent_code": "WAS", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.5399208188041189, "expected_margin": 1.2329728402640139, "strength_margin": 3.357972840264014, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0.0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.0, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 2, "opponent_rest": 2, "portland_miles": 394, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Young can be attacked defensively; Davis and Sarr can erase careless finishes at the rim.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-452", "date": "2026-12-27", "opponent": "Detroit", "opponent_code": "DET", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.3425063289701412, "expected_margin": -4.989650531563755, "strength_margin": -2.564650531563755, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0.0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.3, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 0, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 394, "opponent_miles": 237, "portland_b2b": true, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Cunningham can target small guards; finish defensive possessions before trying to run.", "schedule_note": "POR back-to-back; DET back-to-back", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-468", "date": "2026-12-29", "opponent": "Brooklyn", "opponent_code": "BKN", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.7843337939638075, "expected_margin": 9.679757696450746, "strength_margin": 7.2047576964507485, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0.0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 1964, "opponent_miles": 2438, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Attack the guards while keeping a body on Randle; do not concede easy transition possessions.", "schedule_note": "POR 3-in-4; BKN 3-in-4", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-501", "date": "2027-01-02", "opponent": "Boston", "opponent_code": "BOS", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.5232239061328134, "expected_margin": 0.716486676849692, "strength_margin": -3.4585133231503082, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 1.85, "travel_points": 0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.3, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 3, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 635, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Tatum forces difficult wing assignments; win non-star minutes and defend the arc without overhelping.", "schedule_note": "BOS back-to-back; BOS 3-in-4; Net schedule +2.2 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-515", "date": "2027-01-04", "opponent": "New York", "opponent_code": "NYK", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.4355929751509349, "expected_margin": -1.994621147286933, "strength_margin": -3.8696211472869333, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.4, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 981, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Brunson can hunt small defenders; Towns spacing forces Clingan away from the rim.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-527", "date": "2027-01-06", "opponent": "New Orleans", "opponent_code": "NOP", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.6153468452147656, "expected_margin": 3.6076416864880922, "strength_margin": 6.082641686488092, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": -0.55, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 2060, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Build a wall against Williamson; force contested jumpers without abandoning Murphy.", "schedule_note": "Net schedule -0.6 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-536", "date": "2027-01-07", "opponent": "Dallas", "opponent_code": "DAL", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.4788176445833888, "expected_margin": -0.6534401316405887, "strength_margin": 3.3215598683594116, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": -1.85, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.0, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 0, "opponent_rest": 2, "portland_miles": 442, "opponent_miles": 442, "portland_b2b": true, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Make Irving defend repeated actions; keep Camara available for Flagg rather than wasting him off-ball.", "schedule_note": "POR back-to-back; POR 3-in-4; Net schedule -1.9 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-554", "date": "2027-01-09", "opponent": "Charlotte", "opponent_code": "CHA", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.605126166968245, "expected_margin": 3.279894920213932, "strength_margin": 1.3548949202139315, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": -0.35, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.0, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 1631, "opponent_miles": 2285, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Chase Miller and Knueppel off clean threes; use guard penetration to test interior coverage.", "schedule_note": "POR 3-in-4; Net schedule -0.3 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-576", "date": "2027-01-12", "opponent": "Orlando", "opponent_code": "ORL", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.5750849894610441, "expected_margin": 2.3289974999364116, "strength_margin": -0.24600250006358892, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0.25, "travel_points": 0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.3, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 2, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 2525, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Banchero and Wagner test wing depth; keep guard mismatches out of the post.", "schedule_note": "Net schedule +0.6 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-584", "date": "2027-01-13", "opponent": "LA Lakers", "opponent_code": "LAL", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.4770466772183055, "expected_margin": -0.7081295583996948, "strength_margin": -1.333129558399695, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": -1.25, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.4, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 0, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 831, "portland_b2b": true, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Doncic hunts guard switches; pre-switch with Camara while making Luka work at the other end.", "schedule_note": "POR back-to-back; Net schedule -1.2 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-599", "date": "2027-01-15", "opponent": "Sacramento", "opponent_code": "SAC", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.8488547238747077, "expected_margin": 12.688809551176846, "strength_margin": 8.963809551176846, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 1.25, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 484, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Make Sacramento contain dribble penetration; prevent Sabonis from turning rebounds into repeat possessions.", "schedule_note": "SAC back-to-back; POR 3-in-4; SAC 3-in-4; Net schedule +1.2 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-609", "date": "2027-01-17", "opponent": "Oklahoma City", "opponent_code": "OKC", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.19072776399085978, "expected_margin": -10.765976742942645, "strength_margin": -7.940976742942643, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": -0.2, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.5, "timing_points": 0.075, 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"schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-624", "date": "2027-01-20", "opponent": "Atlanta", "opponent_code": "ATL", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.34662618407446455, "expected_margin": -4.852036889320012, "strength_margin": -0.27703688932001225, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": -1.6, "travel_points": -0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.5, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 0, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 607, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": true, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Daniels and Dort pressure the ball; prioritize secure entries and avoid live-ball turnovers.", "schedule_note": "POR back-to-back; POR 3-in-4; Net schedule -2.0 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-640", "date": "2027-01-22", "opponent": "Orlando", "opponent_code": "ORL", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.3951521861939056, "expected_margin": -3.271002500063589, "strength_margin": -0.24600250006358892, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": -0.6, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.3, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 2, "portland_miles": 402, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Banchero and Wagner test wing depth; keep guard mismatches out of the post.", "schedule_note": "POR 3-in-4; Net schedule -0.6 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-655", "date": "2027-01-24", "opponent": "San Antonio", "opponent_code": "SAS", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.22832632878921738, "expected_margin": -9.156431915222507, "strength_margin": -6.4314319152225075, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.6, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 1035, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Wembanyama reduces easy finishes and putbacks; Portland needs credible shooting above the break.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-675", "date": "2027-01-26", "opponent": "Washington", "opponent_code": "WAS", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.6662123185210105, "expected_margin": 5.282972840264015, "strength_margin": 3.357972840264014, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": -0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.0, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 1719, "opponent_miles": 827, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Young can be attacked defensively; Davis and Sarr can erase careless finishes at the rim.", "schedule_note": "Net schedule -0.3 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null 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-2.3458786847518445, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 1.5, "travel_points": 0.35, "altitude_points": -0.4, "matchup_points": -0.4, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 3, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 981, "opponent_miles": 504, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Jokic tests Clingan beyond the rim; avoid automatic doubles that concede cuts and open threes.", "schedule_note": "DEN back-to-back; Net schedule +1.5 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-730", "date": "2027-02-02", "opponent": "Minnesota", "opponent_code": "MIN", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.4783003040417228, "expected_margin": -0.6694147949755245, "strength_margin": -2.4444147949755246, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.5, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 981, "opponent_miles": 1422, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Edwards attacks small guards and Gobert guards the rim; pull-up shooting is Portland\u2019s release valve.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-745", "date": "2027-02-04", "opponent": "Cleveland", "opponent_code": "CLE", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.5636306624640525, "expected_margin": 1.9703700041784364, "strength_margin": -1.8546299958215637, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 1.6, "travel_points": 0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.4, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 1006, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Mobley and Allen complicate finishing; pull-up shooting must punish deeper pick-and-roll coverage.", "schedule_note": "CLE back-to-back; CLE 3-in-4; Net schedule +2.0 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-755", "date": "2027-02-06", "opponent": "Memphis", "opponent_code": "MEM", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.5848353063686835, "expected_margin": 2.635829352150737, "strength_margin": 5.360829352150737, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": -0.25, "travel_points": -0.55, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 2, "portland_miles": 1846, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Veteran guards should test a young defense; keep Edey and Boozer off second chances.", "schedule_note": "Net schedule -0.8 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-774", "date": "2027-02-08", "opponent": "Memphis", "opponent_code": "MEM", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.6099984330574202, "expected_margin": 3.435829352150737, "strength_margin": 5.360829352150737, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Veteran guards should test a young defense; keep Edey and Boozer off second chances.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-784", "date": "2027-02-09", "opponent": "Oklahoma City", "opponent_code": "OKC", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.16132416881461742, "expected_margin": -12.165976742942645, "strength_margin": -7.940976742942643, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": -1.6, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.5, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 0, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 422, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": true, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "SGA and Holmgren stretch the defense; Portland must avoid turnovers and generate good first shots.", "schedule_note": "POR back-to-back; POR 3-in-4; Net schedule -1.6 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-797", "date": "2027-02-11", "opponent": "Dallas", "opponent_code": "DAL", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.5274339044333993, "expected_margin": 0.8465598683594114, "strength_margin": 3.3215598683594116, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": -0.35, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.0, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 190, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Make Irving defend repeated actions; keep Camara available for Flagg rather than wasting him off-ball.", "schedule_note": "POR 3-in-4; Net schedule -0.3 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-811", "date": "2027-02-13", "opponent": "Detroit", "opponent_code": "DET", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.4614774103649997, "expected_margin": -1.1896505315637549, "strength_margin": -2.564650531563755, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": -0.25, "travel_points": -0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.3, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 2, "portland_miles": 1631, "opponent_miles": 1006, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Cunningham can target small guards; finish defensive possessions before trying to run.", "schedule_note": "Net schedule -0.6 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-822", "date": "2027-02-14", "opponent": "Chicago", "opponent_code": "CHI", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.6799690856653999, "expected_margin": 5.752059632862013, "strength_margin": 5.127059632862013, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": -1.85, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 0, "opponent_rest": 2, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 981, "portland_b2b": true, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Make the young lineup execute in the half court; keep Giddey from igniting transition.", "schedule_note": "POR back-to-back; POR 3-in-4; Net schedule -1.9 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-830", "date": "2027-02-16", "opponent": "New Orleans", "opponent_code": "NOP", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.7566889739911544, "expected_margin": 8.55764168648809, "strength_margin": 6.082641686488092, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": -0.35, "travel_points": 0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 2060, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Build a wall against Williamson; force contested jumpers without abandoning Murphy.", "schedule_note": "POR 3-in-4", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-848", "date": "2027-02-18", "opponent": "Indiana", "opponent_code": "IND", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.6161755607292528, "expected_margin": 3.6343255748837313, "strength_margin": -0.24067442511626935, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 1.6, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.0, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 484, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Slow Haliburton early in possessions; protect the ball to prevent transition chains.", "schedule_note": "IND back-to-back; IND 3-in-4; Net schedule +1.6 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-865", "date": "2027-02-26", "opponent": "Dallas", "opponent_code": "DAL", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.7275322003619554, "expected_margin": 7.446559868359412, "strength_margin": 3.3215598683594116, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 1.5, "travel_points": 0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.0, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 7, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 536, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Make Irving defend repeated actions; keep Camara available for Flagg rather than wasting him off-ball.", "schedule_note": "DAL back-to-back; Net schedule +1.9 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-880", "date": "2027-02-28", "opponent": "LA Clippers", "opponent_code": "LAC", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.6195164381243488, "expected_margin": 3.742073873887616, "strength_margin": 5.917073873887616, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": -0.25, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 2, 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"actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-903", "date": "2027-03-04", "opponent": "Cleveland", "opponent_code": "CLE", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.3368494939131723, "expected_margin": -5.179629995821564, "strength_margin": -1.8546299958215637, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": -0.25, "travel_points": -0.55, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.4, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 2, "portland_miles": 2050, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Mobley and Allen complicate finishing; pull-up shooting must punish deeper pick-and-roll coverage.", "schedule_note": "Net schedule -0.8 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-913", "date": "2027-03-05", "opponent": "Toronto", "opponent_code": "TOR", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.3348201612701412, "expected_margin": -5.248083075070701, "strength_margin": -1.5730830750707014, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": -1.25, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.3, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 0, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 189, "opponent_miles": 1237, "portland_b2b": true, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Leonard and Barnes punish small lineups; Portland needs quick decisions before help arrives.", "schedule_note": "POR back-to-back; POR 3-in-4; TOR 3-in-4; Net schedule -1.2 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-926", "date": "2027-03-07", "opponent": "Chicago", "opponent_code": "CHI", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.6306124935035854, "expected_margin": 4.102059632862012, "strength_margin": 5.127059632862013, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0.9, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 436, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Make the young lineup execute in the half court; keep Giddey from igniting transition.", "schedule_note": "CHI back-to-back; POR 3-in-4; Net schedule +0.9 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-944", "date": "2027-03-09", "opponent": "Golden State", "opponent_code": "GSW", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.4242001097662315, "expected_margin": -2.3514431727262908, "strength_margin": 1.1835568272737098, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": -0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.2, "timing_points": -0.7850000000000001, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 1855, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Curry movement tests communication; punish switches without letting the offense become static.", "schedule_note": "Net schedule -0.3 pts; Availability timing -0.8 pts", "result": null, 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"rationale": "Leonard and Barnes punish small lineups; Portland needs quick decisions before help arrives.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-1072", "date": "2027-03-26", "opponent": "Philadelphia", "opponent_code": "PHI", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.48105666473867637, "expected_margin": -0.5843150648161779, "strength_margin": -3.059315064816178, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0.6, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.4, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 2, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 536, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Embiid and the large perimeter creators test fouls and switching; actual availability will dominate this matchup.", "schedule_note": "PHI 3-in-4; Net schedule +0.6 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-1078", "date": "2027-03-27", 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"BOS", "home": true, "venue": "Home", "strength_margin": -2.3768923591974094, "home_points": 1.8046611814324685, "rest_points": 3.3045092959634297, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "timing_points": 0.020625000000000004, "matchup_points": -0.1910247828811553, "pace": 99.24966666666666, "expected_margin": 2.5426557082080024, "game_sd": 13.71748666051791, "portland_rest": 3, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 635, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Defend wing creation and high-volume threes; protect non-star minutes.", "schedule_note": "BOS back-to-back; BOS third in four nights", "result": null, "actual_margin": null, "win_probability": 0.5676452232057448 }, { "id": "NBA26-515", "date": "2027-01-04", "opponent": "New York", "opponent_code": "NYK", "home": true, "venue": "Home", "strength_margin": -0.6108453356860977, "home_points": 1.8046611814324685, "rest_points": 0.0, "travel_points": 0.0, 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"opponent_code": "ORL", "home": false, "venue": "Away", "strength_margin": 0.2172140542868144, "home_points": -1.8046611814324685, "rest_points": -0.6826899637508606, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "timing_points": 0.020625000000000004, "matchup_points": -0.32659742857888063, "pace": 100.74366666666666, "expected_margin": -2.59526718726856, "game_sd": 13.65593358414444, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 2, "portland_miles": 402, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Banchero/Wagner test wing size; help without conceding Bane threes.", "schedule_note": "POR third in four nights", "result": null, "actual_margin": null, "win_probability": 0.4301624211494619 }, { "id": "NBA26-655", "date": "2027-01-24", "opponent": "San Antonio", "opponent_code": "SAS", "home": false, "venue": "Away", "strength_margin": -2.6037534686473727, "home_points": -1.8046611814324685, "rest_points": 0.0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "timing_points": 0.020625000000000004, "matchup_points": -0.5910779459601738, "pace": 100.79166666666666, "expected_margin": -5.018283631175331, "game_sd": 13.731444670801572, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 1035, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Wembanyama reduces easy finishes; prioritize spacing and secure rebounds.", "schedule_note": "No major schedule disadvantage", "result": null, "actual_margin": null, "win_probability": 0.36743368261009646 }, { "id": "NBA26-675", "date": "2027-01-26", "opponent": "Washington", "opponent_code": "WAS", "home": true, "venue": "Home", "strength_margin": 5.2978249458036135, "home_points": 1.8046611814324685, "rest_points": 0.0, "travel_points": -0.15, "altitude_points": 0, "timing_points": 0.020625000000000004, "matchup_points": 0.5628483820494824, "pace": 101.32266666666665, "expected_margin": 7.63563513372838, "game_sd": 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0.020625000000000004, "matchup_points": 0.3283381082730507, "pace": 101.08266666666665, "expected_margin": 3.8531346713220627, "game_sd": 13.780697302694305, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 2, "portland_miles": 1846, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Limit Edey/Boozer second chances; pressure inexperienced creators.", "schedule_note": "No major schedule disadvantage", "result": null, "actual_margin": null, "win_probability": 0.6019169465874142 }, { "id": "NBA26-774", "date": "2027-02-08", "opponent": "Memphis", "opponent_code": "MEM", "home": false, "venue": "Away", "strength_margin": 5.993368674605971, "home_points": -1.8046611814324685, "rest_points": 0.0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "timing_points": 0.020625000000000004, "matchup_points": 0.3283381082730507, "pace": 101.08266666666665, "expected_margin": 4.586798448491547, "game_sd": 13.780697302694305, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, 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"altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.5, "timing_points": -0.325, "portland_rest": 0, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": true, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "SGA and Holmgren stretch the defense; Portland must avoid turnovers and generate good first shots.", "schedule_note": "POR back-to-back; OKC back-to-back; Availability timing -0.3 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-41", "date": "2026-11-13", "opponent": "Sacramento", "opponent_code": "SAC", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.688259765539039, "expected_margin": 6.038809551176846, "strength_margin": 8.963809551176846, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": -0.6, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": -0.325, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 2, "portland_miles": 484, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": true, "rationale": "Make 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"id": "NBA26-254", "date": "2026-11-17", "opponent": "Minnesota", "opponent_code": "MIN", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.33863854728330756, "expected_margin": -5.119414794975525, "strength_margin": -2.4444147949755246, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0.3500000000000001, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.5, "timing_points": -0.325, "portland_rest": 0, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": true, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Edwards attacks small guards and Gobert guards the rim; pull-up shooting is Portland\u2019s release valve.", "schedule_note": "POR back-to-back; MIN back-to-back; MIN 3-in-4; Net schedule +0.4 pts; Availability timing -0.3 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-271", "date": "2026-11-19", "opponent": "Milwaukee", "opponent_code": "MIL", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.6857396850128863, "expected_margin": 5.951307008833158, "strength_margin": 7.026307008833158, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0.9, "travel_points": 0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": -0.325, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 298, "opponent_miles": 1271, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Make Herro defend actions; contain Ware rolls without giving away corner threes.", "schedule_note": "MIL back-to-back; POR 3-in-4; Net schedule +1.2 pts; Availability timing -0.3 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-275", "date": "2026-11-21", "opponent": "New York", "opponent_code": "NYK", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.30158432717301575, "expected_margin": -6.394621147286934, "strength_margin": -3.8696211472869333, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.4, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 732, "opponent_miles": 1016, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Brunson can hunt small defenders; Towns spacing forces Clingan away from the rim.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-288", "date": "2026-11-23", "opponent": "Philadelphia", "opponent_code": "PHI", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.32492319503744854, "expected_margin": -5.584315064816178, "strength_margin": -3.059315064816178, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.4, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 83, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Embiid and the large perimeter creators test fouls and switching; actual availability will dominate this matchup.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-63", "date": "2026-11-25", "opponent": "San Antonio", "opponent_code": "SAS", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.33902476086909616, "expected_margin": -5.106431915222506, "strength_margin": -6.4314319152225075, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": -0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.6, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 2405, "opponent_miles": 484, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": true, "rationale": "Wembanyama reduces easy finishes and putbacks; Portland needs credible shooting above the break.", "schedule_note": "Net schedule -0.3 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-74", "date": "2026-11-27", "opponent": "Golden State", "opponent_code": "GSW", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.6274328313665127, "expected_margin": 3.9985568272737098, "strength_margin": 1.1835568272737098, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.2, "timing_points": 0.815, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 536, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": true, "rationale": "Curry movement tests communication; punish switches without letting the offense become static.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge; Availability timing +0.8 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-309", "date": "2026-11-29", "opponent": "New Orleans", "opponent_code": "NOP", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.7566889739911544, "expected_margin": 8.55764168648809, "strength_margin": 6.082641686488092, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 831, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Build a wall against Williamson; force contested jumpers without abandoning Murphy.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-325", "date": "2026-12-01", "opponent": "Minnesota", "opponent_code": "MIN", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.4783003040417228, "expected_margin": -0.6694147949755245, "strength_margin": -2.4444147949755246, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.5, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 484, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Edwards attacks small guards and Gobert guards the rim; pull-up shooting is Portland\u2019s release valve.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-340", "date": "2026-12-03", "opponent": "Utah", "opponent_code": "UTA", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.6396751218831319, "expected_margin": 4.398690736621013, "strength_margin": 2.3236907366210136, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 536, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Jackson and Markkanen stretch frontcourt coverage; attack carefully rather than driving into help.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "CUP-TBD-1", "date": null, "opponent": "NBA Cup-dependent opponent", "opponent_code": "TBD", "venue": "TBD", "home": null, "win_probability": 0.5253773012744103, "expected_margin": null, "rationale": "Conference-average opponent prior. Opponent, venue and date await Cup results; not a scheduled matchup.", "schedule_note": "Dec 4\u201310 window", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "CUP-TBD-2", "date": null, "opponent": "NBA Cup-dependent opponent", "opponent_code": "TBD", "venue": "TBD", "home": null, "win_probability": 0.5253773012744103, "expected_margin": null, "rationale": "Conference-average opponent prior. Opponent, venue and date await Cup results; not a scheduled matchup.", "schedule_note": "Dec 4\u201310 window", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-348", "date": "2026-12-12", "opponent": "Atlanta", "opponent_code": "ATL", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.5484620123862922, "expected_margin": 1.497963110679988, "strength_margin": -0.27703688932001225, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.5, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": null, "opponent_rest": null, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Daniels and Dort pressure the ball; prioritize secure entries and avoid live-ball turnovers.", "schedule_note": "Rest/travel after Cup window TBD", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-367", "date": "2026-12-15", "opponent": "Denver", "opponent_code": "DEN", "venue": "Home", "home": true, 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CHA 3-in-4; Net schedule +1.6 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-413", "date": "2026-12-21", "opponent": "Brooklyn", "opponent_code": "BKN", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.712017512763282, "expected_margin": 6.879757696450749, "strength_margin": 7.2047576964507485, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 1.6, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 530, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Attack the guards while keeping a body on Randle; do not concede easy transition possessions.", "schedule_note": "BKN back-to-back; BKN 3-in-4; Net schedule +1.6 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-426", "date": "2026-12-23", "opponent": "Boston", "opponent_code": "BOS", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.3090226603462142, "expected_margin": -6.133513323150308, "strength_margin": -3.4585133231503082, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": -0.25, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.3, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 2, "portland_miles": 190, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Tatum forces difficult wing assignments; win non-star minutes and defend the arc without overhelping.", "schedule_note": "Net schedule -0.2 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-438", "date": "2026-12-26", "opponent": "Washington", "opponent_code": "WAS", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.5399208188041189, "expected_margin": 1.2329728402640139, "strength_margin": 3.357972840264014, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0.0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.0, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 2, "opponent_rest": 2, "portland_miles": 394, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Young can be attacked defensively; Davis and Sarr can erase careless finishes at the rim.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-452", "date": "2026-12-27", "opponent": "Detroit", "opponent_code": "DET", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.3425063289701412, "expected_margin": -4.989650531563755, "strength_margin": -2.564650531563755, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0.0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.3, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 0, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 394, "opponent_miles": 237, "portland_b2b": true, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Cunningham can target small guards; finish defensive possessions before trying to run.", "schedule_note": "POR back-to-back; DET back-to-back", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-468", "date": "2026-12-29", "opponent": "Brooklyn", "opponent_code": "BKN", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.7843337939638075, "expected_margin": 9.679757696450746, "strength_margin": 7.2047576964507485, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0.0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 1964, "opponent_miles": 2438, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Attack the guards while keeping a body on Randle; do not concede easy transition possessions.", "schedule_note": "POR 3-in-4; BKN 3-in-4", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-501", "date": "2027-01-02", "opponent": "Boston", "opponent_code": "BOS", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.5232239061328134, "expected_margin": 0.716486676849692, "strength_margin": -3.4585133231503082, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 1.85, "travel_points": 0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.3, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 3, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 635, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Tatum forces difficult wing assignments; win non-star minutes and defend the arc without overhelping.", "schedule_note": "BOS back-to-back; BOS 3-in-4; Net schedule +2.2 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-515", "date": "2027-01-04", "opponent": "New York", "opponent_code": "NYK", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.4355929751509349, "expected_margin": -1.994621147286933, "strength_margin": -3.8696211472869333, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.4, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 981, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Brunson can hunt small defenders; Towns spacing forces Clingan away from the rim.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-527", "date": "2027-01-06", "opponent": "New Orleans", "opponent_code": "NOP", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.6153468452147656, "expected_margin": 3.6076416864880922, "strength_margin": 6.082641686488092, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": -0.55, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 2060, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Build a wall against Williamson; force contested jumpers without abandoning Murphy.", "schedule_note": "Net schedule -0.6 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-536", "date": "2027-01-07", "opponent": "Dallas", "opponent_code": "DAL", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.4788176445833888, "expected_margin": -0.6534401316405887, "strength_margin": 3.3215598683594116, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": -1.85, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.0, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 0, "opponent_rest": 2, "portland_miles": 442, "opponent_miles": 442, "portland_b2b": true, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Make Irving defend repeated actions; keep Camara available for Flagg rather than wasting him off-ball.", "schedule_note": "POR back-to-back; POR 3-in-4; Net schedule -1.9 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-554", "date": "2027-01-09", "opponent": "Charlotte", "opponent_code": "CHA", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.605126166968245, "expected_margin": 3.279894920213932, "strength_margin": 1.3548949202139315, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": -0.35, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.0, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 1631, "opponent_miles": 2285, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Chase Miller and Knueppel off clean threes; use guard penetration to test interior coverage.", "schedule_note": "POR 3-in-4; Net schedule -0.3 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-576", "date": "2027-01-12", "opponent": "Orlando", "opponent_code": "ORL", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.5750849894610441, "expected_margin": 2.3289974999364116, "strength_margin": -0.24600250006358892, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0.25, "travel_points": 0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.3, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 2, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 2525, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Banchero and Wagner test wing depth; keep guard mismatches out of the post.", "schedule_note": "Net schedule +0.6 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-584", "date": "2027-01-13", "opponent": "LA Lakers", "opponent_code": "LAL", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.4770466772183055, "expected_margin": -0.7081295583996948, "strength_margin": -1.333129558399695, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": -1.25, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.4, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 0, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 831, "portland_b2b": true, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Doncic hunts guard switches; pre-switch with Camara while making Luka work at the other end.", "schedule_note": "POR back-to-back; Net schedule -1.2 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-599", "date": "2027-01-15", "opponent": "Sacramento", "opponent_code": "SAC", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.8488547238747077, "expected_margin": 12.688809551176846, "strength_margin": 8.963809551176846, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 1.25, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 484, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Make Sacramento contain dribble penetration; prevent Sabonis from turning rebounds into repeat possessions.", "schedule_note": "SAC back-to-back; POR 3-in-4; SAC 3-in-4; Net schedule +1.2 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-609", "date": "2027-01-17", "opponent": "Oklahoma City", "opponent_code": "OKC", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.19072776399085978, "expected_margin": -10.765976742942645, "strength_margin": -7.940976742942643, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": -0.2, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.5, "timing_points": 0.075, 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"schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-624", "date": "2027-01-20", "opponent": "Atlanta", "opponent_code": "ATL", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.34662618407446455, "expected_margin": -4.852036889320012, "strength_margin": -0.27703688932001225, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": -1.6, "travel_points": -0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.5, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 0, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 607, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": true, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Daniels and Dort pressure the ball; prioritize secure entries and avoid live-ball turnovers.", "schedule_note": "POR back-to-back; POR 3-in-4; Net schedule -2.0 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-640", "date": "2027-01-22", "opponent": "Orlando", "opponent_code": "ORL", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.3951521861939056, "expected_margin": -3.271002500063589, "strength_margin": -0.24600250006358892, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": -0.6, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.3, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 2, "portland_miles": 402, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Banchero and Wagner test wing depth; keep guard mismatches out of the post.", "schedule_note": "POR 3-in-4; Net schedule -0.6 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-655", "date": "2027-01-24", "opponent": "San Antonio", "opponent_code": "SAS", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.22832632878921738, "expected_margin": -9.156431915222507, "strength_margin": -6.4314319152225075, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.6, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 1035, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Wembanyama reduces easy finishes and putbacks; Portland needs credible shooting above the break.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-675", "date": "2027-01-26", "opponent": "Washington", "opponent_code": "WAS", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.6662123185210105, "expected_margin": 5.282972840264015, "strength_margin": 3.357972840264014, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": -0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.0, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 1719, "opponent_miles": 827, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Young can be attacked defensively; Davis and Sarr can erase careless finishes at the rim.", "schedule_note": "Net schedule -0.3 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null 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-2.3458786847518445, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 1.5, "travel_points": 0.35, "altitude_points": -0.4, "matchup_points": -0.4, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 3, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 981, "opponent_miles": 504, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Jokic tests Clingan beyond the rim; avoid automatic doubles that concede cuts and open threes.", "schedule_note": "DEN back-to-back; Net schedule +1.5 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-730", "date": "2027-02-02", "opponent": "Minnesota", "opponent_code": "MIN", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.4783003040417228, "expected_margin": -0.6694147949755245, "strength_margin": -2.4444147949755246, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.5, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 981, "opponent_miles": 1422, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Edwards attacks small guards and Gobert guards the rim; pull-up shooting is Portland\u2019s release valve.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-745", "date": "2027-02-04", "opponent": "Cleveland", "opponent_code": "CLE", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.5636306624640525, "expected_margin": 1.9703700041784364, "strength_margin": -1.8546299958215637, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 1.6, "travel_points": 0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.4, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 1006, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Mobley and Allen complicate finishing; pull-up shooting must punish deeper pick-and-roll coverage.", "schedule_note": "CLE back-to-back; CLE 3-in-4; Net schedule +2.0 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-755", "date": "2027-02-06", "opponent": "Memphis", "opponent_code": "MEM", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.5848353063686835, "expected_margin": 2.635829352150737, "strength_margin": 5.360829352150737, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": -0.25, "travel_points": -0.55, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 2, "portland_miles": 1846, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Veteran guards should test a young defense; keep Edey and Boozer off second chances.", "schedule_note": "Net schedule -0.8 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-774", "date": "2027-02-08", "opponent": "Memphis", "opponent_code": "MEM", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.6099984330574202, "expected_margin": 3.435829352150737, "strength_margin": 5.360829352150737, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Veteran guards should test a young defense; keep Edey and Boozer off second chances.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-784", "date": "2027-02-09", "opponent": "Oklahoma City", "opponent_code": "OKC", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.16132416881461742, "expected_margin": -12.165976742942645, "strength_margin": -7.940976742942643, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": -1.6, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.5, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 0, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 422, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": true, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "SGA and Holmgren stretch the defense; Portland must avoid turnovers and generate good first shots.", "schedule_note": "POR back-to-back; POR 3-in-4; Net schedule -1.6 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-797", "date": "2027-02-11", "opponent": "Dallas", "opponent_code": "DAL", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.5274339044333993, "expected_margin": 0.8465598683594114, "strength_margin": 3.3215598683594116, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": -0.35, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.0, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 190, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Make Irving defend repeated actions; keep Camara available for Flagg rather than wasting him off-ball.", "schedule_note": "POR 3-in-4; Net schedule -0.3 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-811", "date": "2027-02-13", "opponent": "Detroit", "opponent_code": "DET", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.4614774103649997, "expected_margin": -1.1896505315637549, "strength_margin": -2.564650531563755, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": -0.25, "travel_points": -0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.3, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 2, "portland_miles": 1631, "opponent_miles": 1006, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Cunningham can target small guards; finish defensive possessions before trying to run.", "schedule_note": "Net schedule -0.6 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-822", "date": "2027-02-14", "opponent": "Chicago", "opponent_code": "CHI", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.6799690856653999, "expected_margin": 5.752059632862013, "strength_margin": 5.127059632862013, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": -1.85, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 0, "opponent_rest": 2, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 981, "portland_b2b": true, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Make the young lineup execute in the half court; keep Giddey from igniting transition.", "schedule_note": "POR back-to-back; POR 3-in-4; Net schedule -1.9 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-830", "date": "2027-02-16", "opponent": "New Orleans", "opponent_code": "NOP", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.7566889739911544, "expected_margin": 8.55764168648809, "strength_margin": 6.082641686488092, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": -0.35, "travel_points": 0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 2060, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Build a wall against Williamson; force contested jumpers without abandoning Murphy.", "schedule_note": "POR 3-in-4", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-848", "date": "2027-02-18", "opponent": "Indiana", "opponent_code": "IND", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.6161755607292528, "expected_margin": 3.6343255748837313, "strength_margin": -0.24067442511626935, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 1.6, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.0, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 484, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Slow Haliburton early in possessions; protect the ball to prevent transition chains.", "schedule_note": "IND back-to-back; IND 3-in-4; Net schedule +1.6 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-865", "date": "2027-02-26", "opponent": "Dallas", "opponent_code": "DAL", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.7275322003619554, "expected_margin": 7.446559868359412, "strength_margin": 3.3215598683594116, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 1.5, "travel_points": 0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.0, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 7, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 536, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Make Irving defend repeated actions; keep Camara available for Flagg rather than wasting him off-ball.", "schedule_note": "DAL back-to-back; Net schedule +1.9 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-880", "date": "2027-02-28", "opponent": "LA Clippers", "opponent_code": "LAC", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.6195164381243488, "expected_margin": 3.742073873887616, "strength_margin": 5.917073873887616, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": -0.25, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 2, 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"actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-903", "date": "2027-03-04", "opponent": "Cleveland", "opponent_code": "CLE", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.3368494939131723, "expected_margin": -5.179629995821564, "strength_margin": -1.8546299958215637, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": -0.25, "travel_points": -0.55, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.4, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 2, "portland_miles": 2050, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Mobley and Allen complicate finishing; pull-up shooting must punish deeper pick-and-roll coverage.", "schedule_note": "Net schedule -0.8 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-913", "date": "2027-03-05", "opponent": "Toronto", "opponent_code": "TOR", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.3348201612701412, "expected_margin": -5.248083075070701, "strength_margin": -1.5730830750707014, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": -1.25, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.3, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 0, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 189, "opponent_miles": 1237, "portland_b2b": true, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Leonard and Barnes punish small lineups; Portland needs quick decisions before help arrives.", "schedule_note": "POR back-to-back; POR 3-in-4; TOR 3-in-4; Net schedule -1.2 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-926", "date": "2027-03-07", "opponent": "Chicago", "opponent_code": "CHI", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.6306124935035854, "expected_margin": 4.102059632862012, "strength_margin": 5.127059632862013, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0.9, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 436, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Make the young lineup execute in the half court; keep Giddey from igniting transition.", "schedule_note": "CHI back-to-back; POR 3-in-4; Net schedule +0.9 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-944", "date": "2027-03-09", "opponent": "Golden State", "opponent_code": "GSW", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.4242001097662315, "expected_margin": -2.3514431727262908, "strength_margin": 1.1835568272737098, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": -0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.2, "timing_points": -0.7850000000000001, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 1855, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Curry movement tests communication; punish switches without letting the offense become static.", "schedule_note": "Net schedule -0.3 pts; Availability timing -0.8 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-950", "date": "2027-03-10", "opponent": "Denver", "opponent_code": "DEN", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.4331533401123606, "expected_margin": -2.070878684751844, "strength_margin": -2.3458786847518445, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": -1.25, "travel_points": -0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.4, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 0, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 536, "opponent_miles": 484, "portland_b2b": true, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Jokic tests Clingan beyond the rim; avoid automatic doubles that concede cuts and open threes.", "schedule_note": "POR back-to-back; POR 3-in-4; DEN 3-in-4; Net schedule -1.6 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-975", "date": "2027-03-13", "opponent": "LA Clippers", "opponent_code": "LAC", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.7676130379163317, "expected_margin": 8.992073873887614, "strength_margin": 5.917073873887616, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0.6, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 2, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 831, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Attack Garland defensively; keep size on Ingram and avoid unnecessary help from shooters.", "schedule_note": "LAC 3-in-4; Net schedule +0.6 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-996", "date": "2027-03-16", "opponent": "LA Lakers", "opponent_code": "LAL", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.5256641517948116, "expected_margin": 0.7918704416003052, "strength_margin": -1.333129558399695, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0.25, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.4, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 2, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 827, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Doncic hunts guard switches; pre-switch with Camara while making Luka work at the other end.", "schedule_note": "Net schedule +0.2 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-1005", "date": "2027-03-17", "opponent": "Miami", "opponent_code": "MIA", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.4678961975102924, "expected_margin": -0.9909536856118679, "strength_margin": -1.265953685611868, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": -1.5, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.5, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 0, "opponent_rest": 2, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 981, "portland_b2b": true, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Giannis and Adebayo threaten the paint; Portland needs spacing and disciplined transition defense.", "schedule_note": "POR back-to-back; Net schedule -1.5 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-1018", "date": "2027-03-19", "opponent": "Golden State", "opponent_code": "GSW", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.4353746232801343, "expected_margin": -2.0014431727262902, "strength_margin": 1.1835568272737098, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0.0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.2, "timing_points": -0.7850000000000001, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 536, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Curry movement tests communication; punish switches without letting the offense become static.", "schedule_note": "POR 3-in-4; GSW 3-in-4; Availability timing -0.8 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-1031", "date": "2027-03-21", "opponent": "Phoenix", "opponent_code": "PHX", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.46437202781484005, "expected_margin": -1.100010840696544, "strength_margin": 1.143739159303456, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.0, "timing_points": -0.04375, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 653, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Booker creates difficult guard assignments; Portland needs penetration without losing perimeter shooters.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-1047", "date": "2027-03-23", "opponent": "Toronto", "opponent_code": "TOR", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.5130326187056531, "expected_margin": 0.40191692492929876, "strength_margin": -1.5730830750707014, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.3, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 1006, "opponent_miles": 635, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Leonard and Barnes punish small lineups; Portland needs quick decisions before help arrives.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-1072", "date": "2027-03-26", "opponent": "Philadelphia", "opponent_code": "PHI", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.48105666473867637, "expected_margin": -0.5843150648161779, "strength_margin": -3.059315064816178, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0.6, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.4, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 2, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 536, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Embiid and the large perimeter creators test fouls and switching; actual availability will dominate this matchup.", "schedule_note": "PHI 3-in-4; Net schedule +0.6 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-1078", "date": "2027-03-27", "opponent": "Milwaukee", "opponent_code": "MIL", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.796536309942336, "expected_margin": 10.201307008833156, "strength_margin": 7.026307008833158, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0.3500000000000001, "travel_points": 0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 0, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 1006, "portland_b2b": true, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Make Herro defend actions; contain Ware rolls without giving away corner threes.", "schedule_note": "POR back-to-back; MIL back-to-back; MIL 3-in-4; Net schedule +0.7 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-1102", "date": "2027-03-30", "opponent": "Houston", "opponent_code": "HOU", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.5084440487451554, "expected_margin": 0.26038172553599387, "strength_margin": -2.1146182744640063, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0.25, "travel_points": 0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.5, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 2, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 1834, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Thompson pressures the ball and Sengun creates inside; Portland must secure defensive rebounds.", "schedule_note": "Net schedule +0.6 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-1112", "date": "2027-03-31", "opponent": "Houston", "opponent_code": "HOU", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.5003366992538987, "expected_margin": 0.010381725535993966, "strength_margin": -2.1146182744640063, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 0.3500000000000001, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.5, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 0, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": true, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Thompson pressures the ball and Sengun creates inside; Portland must secure defensive rebounds.", "schedule_note": "POR back-to-back; HOU back-to-back; HOU 3-in-4; Net schedule +0.4 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-1127", "date": "2027-04-02", "opponent": "Utah", "opponent_code": "UTA", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.621268369822591, "expected_margin": 3.798690736621013, "strength_margin": 2.3236907366210136, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": -0.6, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 2, "portland_miles": 0, "opponent_miles": 635, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Jackson and Markkanen stretch frontcourt coverage; attack carefully rather than driving into help.", "schedule_note": "POR 3-in-4; Net schedule -0.6 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-1140", "date": "2027-04-04", "opponent": "Utah", "opponent_code": "UTA", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.48698707842426375, "expected_margin": -0.40130926337898665, "strength_margin": 2.3236907366210136, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": -0.4, "matchup_points": -0.2, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 635, "opponent_miles": 635, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Jackson and Markkanen stretch frontcourt coverage; attack carefully rather than driving into help.", "schedule_note": "Net schedule -0.4 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-1166", "date": "2027-04-07", "opponent": "Dallas", "opponent_code": "DAL", "venue": "Home", "home": true, "win_probability": 0.736900695828895, "expected_margin": 7.796559868359412, "strength_margin": 3.3215598683594116, "home_points": 2.2, "rest_points": 1.85, "travel_points": 0.35, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": 0.0, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 2, "opponent_rest": 0, "portland_miles": 635, "opponent_miles": 827, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": true, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Make Irving defend repeated actions; keep Camara available for Flagg rather than wasting him off-ball.", "schedule_note": "DAL back-to-back; DAL 3-in-4; Net schedule +2.2 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-1180", "date": "2027-04-09", "opponent": "Houston", "opponent_code": "HOU", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.33359116792510435, "expected_margin": -5.289618274464006, "strength_margin": -2.1146182744640063, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": -0.55, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.5, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 1834, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Thompson pressures the ball and Sengun creates inside; Portland must secure defensive rebounds.", "schedule_note": "Net schedule -0.6 pts", "result": null, "actual_margin": null }, { "id": "NBA26-1196", "date": "2027-04-11", "opponent": "San Antonio", "opponent_code": "SAS", "venue": "Away", "home": false, "win_probability": 0.22832632878921738, "expected_margin": -9.156431915222507, "strength_margin": -6.4314319152225075, "home_points": -2.2, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "altitude_points": 0, "matchup_points": -0.6, "timing_points": 0.075, "portland_rest": 1, "opponent_rest": 1, "portland_miles": 189, "opponent_miles": 0, "portland_b2b": false, "opponent_b2b": false, "cup_group": false, "rationale": "Wembanyama reduces easy finishes and putbacks; Portland needs credible shooting above the break.", "schedule_note": "No material rest/travel edge", "result": null, "actual_margin": null } ], "summary": { "expected_wins": 41.46412931275234, "expected_losses": 40.53587068724766, "rounded_record": 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York", "miles": 0, "east_zones": 0, "rest_points": 0.25, "travel_points": 0.0, "sequence_unknown": false }, "af": { "rest": 6, "b2b": false, "three_in_four": false, "origin": "Philadelphia", "miles": 83, "east_zones": 0, "rest_points": 0.25, "travel_points": 0.0, "sequence_unknown": false }, "home_court": 2.2, "altitude": 0, "schedule_margin": 2.2 }, { "id": "NBA26-3", "date": "2026-10-20", "away": "Oklahoma City", "home": "San Antonio", "neutral": false, "venue": "San Antonio", "et": "9:30 PM", "local": "8:30 PM", "cup_group": false, "hf": { "rest": 6, "b2b": false, "three_in_four": false, "origin": "San Antonio", "miles": 0, "east_zones": 0, "rest_points": 0.25, "travel_points": 0.0, "sequence_unknown": false }, "af": { "rest": 6, "b2b": false, "three_in_four": false, "origin": "Oklahoma City", "miles": 421, "east_zones": 0, "rest_points": 0.25, "travel_points": 0.0, "sequence_unknown": false }, "home_court": 2.2, "altitude": 0, "schedule_margin": 2.2 }, { "id": "NBA26-4", "date": 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"date": "2027-04-11", "away": "Sacramento", "home": "LA Clippers", "neutral": false, "venue": "LA Clippers", "et": "8:30 PM", "local": "5:30 PM", "cup_group": false, "hf": { "rest": 1, "b2b": false, "three_in_four": true, "origin": "Utah", "miles": 588, "east_zones": 0, "rest_points": -0.35, "travel_points": 0.0, "sequence_unknown": false }, "af": { "rest": 1, "b2b": false, "three_in_four": false, "origin": "Sacramento", "miles": 364, "east_zones": 0, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "sequence_unknown": false }, "home_court": 2.2, "altitude": 0, "schedule_margin": 1.85 }, { "id": "NBA26-1200", "date": "2027-04-11", "away": "Phoenix", "home": "LA Lakers", "neutral": false, "venue": "LA Lakers", "et": "8:30 PM", "local": "5:30 PM", "cup_group": false, "hf": { "rest": 1, "b2b": false, "three_in_four": false, "origin": "LA Lakers", "miles": 0, "east_zones": 0, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "sequence_unknown": false }, "af": { "rest": 1, "b2b": false, "three_in_four": false, "origin": "Phoenix", "miles": 358, "east_zones": 0, "rest_points": 0, "travel_points": 0.0, "sequence_unknown": false }, "home_court": 2.2, "altitude": 0, "schedule_margin": 2.2 } ], "forecast_history": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-10", "expected_wins": 41.46412931275234, "record": [ 0, 0 ] } ], "pregame_archive": [], "matchup_adjustments": { "Atlanta": [ -0.5, "Daniels and Dort pressure the ball; prioritize secure entries and avoid live-ball turnovers." ], "Boston": [ -0.3, "Tatum forces difficult wing assignments; win non-star minutes and defend the arc without overhelping." ], "Brooklyn": [ 0.2, "Attack the guards while keeping a body on Randle; do not concede easy transition possessions." ], "Charlotte": [ 0.0, "Chase Miller and Knueppel off clean threes; use guard penetration to test interior coverage." ], "Chicago": [ 0.2, "Make the young lineup execute in the half court; keep Giddey from igniting transition." ], "Cleveland": [ -0.4, "Mobley and Allen complicate finishing; pull-up shooting must punish deeper pick-and-roll coverage." ], "Dallas": [ 0.0, "Make Irving defend repeated actions; keep Camara available for Flagg rather than wasting him off-ball." ], "Denver": [ -0.4, "Jokic tests Clingan beyond the rim; avoid automatic doubles that concede cuts and open threes." ], "Detroit": [ -0.3, "Cunningham can target small guards; finish defensive possessions before trying to run." ], "Golden State": [ -0.2, "Curry movement tests communication; punish switches without letting the offense become static." ], "Houston": [ -0.5, "Thompson pressures the ball and Sengun creates inside; Portland must secure defensive rebounds." ], "Indiana": [ 0.0, "Slow Haliburton early in possessions; protect the ball to prevent transition chains." ], "LA Clippers": [ 0.2, "Attack Garland defensively; keep size on Ingram and avoid unnecessary help from shooters." ], "LA Lakers": [ -0.4, "Doncic hunts guard switches; pre-switch with Camara while making Luka work at the other end." ], "Memphis": [ 0.2, "Veteran guards should test a young defense; keep Edey and Boozer off second chances." ], "Miami": [ -0.5, "Giannis and Adebayo threaten the paint; Portland needs spacing and disciplined transition defense." ], "Milwaukee": [ 0.2, "Make Herro defend actions; contain Ware rolls without giving away corner threes." ], "Minnesota": [ -0.5, "Edwards attacks small guards and Gobert guards the rim; pull-up shooting is Portland\u2019s release valve." ], "New Orleans": [ 0.2, "Build a wall against Williamson; force contested jumpers without abandoning Murphy." ], "New York": [ -0.4, "Brunson can hunt small defenders; Towns spacing forces Clingan away from the rim." ], "Oklahoma City": [ -0.5, "SGA and Holmgren stretch the defense; Portland must avoid turnovers and generate good first shots." ], "Orlando": [ -0.3, "Banchero and Wagner test wing depth; keep guard mismatches out of the post." ], "Philadelphia": [ -0.4, "Embiid and the large perimeter creators test fouls and switching; actual availability will dominate this matchup." ], "Phoenix": [ 0.0, "Booker creates difficult guard assignments; Portland needs penetration without losing perimeter shooters." ], "San Antonio": [ -0.6, "Wembanyama reduces easy finishes and putbacks; Portland needs credible shooting above the break." ], "Sacramento": [ 0.2, "Make Sacramento contain dribble penetration; prevent Sabonis from turning rebounds into repeat possessions." ], "Toronto": [ -0.3, "Leonard and Barnes punish small lineups; Portland needs quick decisions before help arrives." ], "Utah": [ -0.2, "Jackson and Markkanen stretch frontcourt coverage; attack carefully rather than driving into help." ], "Washington": [ 0.0, "Young can be attacked defensively; Davis and Sarr can erase careless finishes at the rim." ] } }, "portland_minutes": [ { "player": "Lillard", "games": 58, "minutes_when_active": 28, "season_minutes": 1624, "prior_minutes": 0, "prior_O": 4.8, "prior_D": -1.2, "projected_O": 4.0, 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0.6872769006297311, "team_change_sd": 3.9780793912587873, "home_court": 1.8046611814324685, "rest": [ -2.6218193322125694, -0.20688424318272658, 0.47580572056813397 ], "game_sd": 13.570591885746891, "validation": { "season": "2025-26", "games": 1230, "brier": 0.2332843298601029, "log_loss": 0.6584155448079613, "accuracy": 0.5934959349593496, "constant_half_brier": 0.25, "scope": "Prior-season team-rating benchmark only; does not validate 2026-27 subjective roster adjustments or season-total tails." } }, "sources": [ { "title": "NBA official team stats, all 30 teams", "url": "https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced?Season=2025-26", "as_of": "2026-10-10" }, { "title": "NBA official four factors", "url": "https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/four-factors?Season=2025-26", "as_of": "2026-10-10" }, { "title": "NBA game logs and player game logs", "url": "https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/boxscores?Season=2025-26", "as_of": "2026-10-10" }, { "title": "Official 2026-27 schedule PDF", "url": "https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/46/2026/08/2026-27-NBA-Regular-Season-Schedule-By-Date.pdf", "as_of": "2026-10-10" }, { "title": "Sharpe injury release, August 27", "url": "https://www.nba.com/news/shaedon-sharpe-out-6-months-torn-meniscus", "as_of": "2026-10-10" }, { "title": "Portland camp report, October 5", "url": "https://www.blazersedge.com/practice-report/116812/portland-trail-blazers-practice-notes-robert-williams-health-micah-nori-jrue-holiday-scoot-henderson-sidy-cissoko", "as_of": "2026-10-10" }, { "title": "Golden State recovery timing, October 10", "url": "https://www.sfchronicle.com/sports/warriors/article/warriors-rotation-risers-fallers-far-nba-22470620.php", "as_of": "2026-10-10" } ], "baseline_known_preseason": [ { "game_id": "0012600033", "date": "2026-10-07", "opponent": "GSW", "portland_score": 123, "opponent_score": 118, "counts_toward_record": false } ], "source_checks": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-10", "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612757/schedule", "finding": "Only October 7 preseason result completed; next preseason game October 12. No new result processed." }, { "as_of": "2026-10-10", "url": "https://pistons.com/news/detroit-pistons-sign-jalen-duren-to-contract-extension", "finding": "Duren extension confirmed; removed obsolete holdout discount before publishing independent baseline." } ], "model_limitations": [ "Other 29 teams use analyst team-level roster changes, not an estimated player-impact model.", "Health simulation is season-aggregate, not day-by-day injury timing.", "Historical validation covers only prior-team-rating foundation, not roster judgments or season-total tails.", "Shot-quality tracking and consistently garbage-time-filtered possession margins unavailable.", "Two Cup-dependent slots are opponent mixtures, not assigned games." ] }