2025-26 Season
TREY MURPHY III
2025-26 Season
TREY MURPHY III
PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology
TEAM COMPARISON
of 16 teammates (10+ games, 10+ min)
Similar Players
Same position, closest production profile this season.
SKILL DNA
Percentile rank vs 234 Forwards with 10+ games
THE SEASON SO FAR
Trey Murphy III’s first twenty games were a wildly erratic rollercoaster, swinging violently between an emerging offensive alpha and a frustratingly inefficient volume chucker. When his shot selection clicked, he was utterly unguardable. He erupted for 41 points and a massive +24.8 impact on 11/08 vs SAS, riding an offensive explosion fueled by elite shot-making. Yet he frequently sabotaged his own box score with awful decisions. During a 20-point outing on 11/24 vs CHI, he posted a disappointing -1.3 impact because he constantly settled for contested, early-clock perimeter shots that short-circuited promising offensive runs. Conversely, he occasionally found ways to contribute when his jumper abandoned him. On 11/05 vs DAL, he managed a +0.3 impact despite scoring just 11 points on a brutal 3/12 shooting night, keeping his head above water through engaged defense and sheer hustle. To take the next leap, Murphy must eradicate those hidden offensive costs and stop letting his jump shot dictate his overall value.
Extreme volatility defined Trey Murphy III's mid-season run, swinging wildly between offensive mastery and frustrating, self-inflicted wounds. When he was dialed in, he looked utterly unstoppable. Look no further than 01/09 vs WAS, where he poured in 35 points and generated a staggering +22.4 impact score by relentlessly punishing drop coverage. However, high scoring totals sometimes masked glaring hidden costs. During the 12/29 vs NYK matchup, Murphy dropped 21 points on five made threes, yet posted a brutal -7.7 impact because live-ball turnovers and lazy transition defense completely undercut his offensive output. Conversely, he found ways to salvage his value even when his perimeter touch vanished. On 12/04 vs MIN, he missed all five of his three-point attempts but still managed a +3.1 impact by pivoting beautifully into a gritty playmaking and defensive role. Murphy is a lethal weapon when his shot selection is pristine, but his overall footprint bleeds value the moment he settles for contested looks or ignores the margins.
A wild rollercoaster of extreme shooting variances defined this midseason stretch for Trey Murphy III, oscillating violently between disastrous shot-chucking and transcendent two-way dominance. When his shot selection soured, the results were catastrophic. During a brutal 01/30 vs MEM matchup, he forced multiple heavily contested looks to finish with just 8 points on 2-of-14 shooting, generating a miserable -13.2 impact score that actively shot his team out of the game. Even when he managed respectable scoring totals, a lack of efficiency often dragged down his actual value. He dropped 19 points on 01/31 vs PHI, but posted a -6.3 impact score because clanking 13 of his 21 field goal attempts severely damaged his offensive footprint. Yet, when he paired his lethal floor-spacing with engaged defense, he looked completely unstoppable. He delivered an absolute masterclass on 02/04 vs MIL, burying 12 three-pointers for 44 points and a staggering +21.1 impact score driven by elite shot selection and suffocating point-of-attack defense. Ultimately, Murphy is a terrifying weapon, but his nightly value hinges entirely on whether he reads the defense or recklessly forces the issue.
IMPACT TIMELINE
Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.
Very consistent. III posts positive impact in 88% of games — you almost always get a productive night. Scoring varies by ~8 points, but the overall contribution stays positive.
Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 59% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.
Defensive difference-maker. III consistently forces tough shots and protects the rim — opponents shoot worse when he's guarding them.
Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 15 games. Longest cold streak: 2 games.
MATCHUP HISTORY
Based on 67 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.
ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM
His shooting stats against each primary defender this season
ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED
How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.
SEASON STATS
GAME LOG
66 games played
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