2025-26 Season

MATAS BUZELIS

Chicago Bulls | Forward | 6-8

2025-26 Season

MATAS BUZELIS

Chicago Bulls | Forward | 6-8 | Yr 1

16.3 PPG

5.8 RPG

2.1 APG

29.2 MPG

+3.8 Impact

Buzelis produces at an above average rate for a 29-minute workload.

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NET IMPACT BREAKDOWN

Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average

+3.8

Scoring +13.9

Points 16.3 PPG = +10.6

Shot Making above expected FG% = +3.3

Creation +1.0

Creation 2.1 AST/g = +1.0

Turnovers -4.8

Turnovers 2.1/g = -4.8

Defense -0.1

Defense 0.7 STL, 1.5 BLK = -0.1

Hustle & Effort +4.4

Rebounds 5.8 RPG = +4.4

Raw Impact +14.4

Baseline (game-average expected) −10.6

Net Impact

+3.8

70th pctl vs Forwards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

TEAM COMPARISON

Impact

Creation

Hustle

Defense

of 21 teammates (10+ games, 10+ min)

Nikola Vučević +11.1 Tre Jones +6.1 Leonard Miller +5.2 Josh Giddey +5.0 Collin Sexton +4.9 Matas Buzelis +3.8 Ayo Dosunmu +3.5 Jalen Smith +1.7 Coby White +1.2 Zach Collins +0.3 Guerschon Yabusele -0.1 Kevin Huerter -0.3 Nick Richards -0.3 Isaac Okoro -2.2 Lachlan Olbrich -2.8 Jevon Carter -2.9 Julian Phillips -3.2 Dalen Terry -4.9 Patrick Williams -5.6 Yuki Kawamura -6.4 Rob Dillingham -7.6

Similar Players

Same position, closest production profile this season.

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 234 Forwards with 10+ games

Scoring 81th

16.3 PPG

Efficiency 61th

58.0% TS

Playmaking 63th

2.1 APG

Rebounding 80th

5.8 RPG

Defense 72th

+8.6/g

Hustle 72th

+14.9/g

Creation 77th

+3.38/g

Shot Making 85th

+8.61/g

TO Discipline 16th

0.07/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

Matas Buzelis’s opening twenty games were defined by maddening inconsistency, oscillating wildly between brilliant defensive flashes and self-inflicted offensive sabotage. He frequently put up hollow numbers that masked underlying flaws. On 11/12 vs DET, Buzelis stuffed the box score with 21 points and 14 rebounds, yet his overall impact slipped to a -1.2 due to costly live-ball turnovers. Conversely, he found ways to salvage rough shooting nights through sheer defensive willpower. During the 11/29 vs IND matchup, he managed a meager 8 points but still posted a +2.3 impact thanks to elite weak-side rotations and relentless rim-deterrence. Unfortunately, when his shot selection failed him, the results were entirely toxic. A disastrous 0-for-5 showing from beyond the arc on 11/28 vs CHA completely tanked his value, resulting in a brutal -13.4 impact score. If Buzelis expects to be a reliable rotation piece, he must stop letting erratic perimeter shooting dictate his nightly worth.

This twenty-game stretch was defined by a maddening tug-of-war between Buzelis’s elite defensive instincts and his stubborn, erratic perimeter shooting. When the outside shot actually fell, the results were terrifying for opponents. He absolutely torched the nets on 12/21 vs ATL, riding a massive surge in perimeter confidence to 28 points and a staggering +14.2 impact score. Too often, however, he fell in love with a broken jumper. Despite dropping 17 points on 01/03 vs CHA, he posted a dismal -7.9 impact because he recklessly forced the issue from beyond the arc and torpedoed his own offensive efficiency. Thankfully, his physical tools routinely salvaged his worst shooting nights. During the 01/16 vs BKN matchup, he bricked his way to an ugly 4-for-15 shooting line, yet still generated a +10.4 impact through elite weak-side rim protection. If he stops chucking contested threes and leans into his defensive motor, his two-way ceiling is monstrous.

A maddening inconsistency defined Matas Buzelis’s midseason stretch, characterized by a volatile tug-of-war between elite shot creation and destructive perimeter chucking. He routinely undermined his own offensive outbursts with hidden costs, evident on 01/30 vs MIA where he dropped 21 points but posted a dismal -7.2 impact score because inefficient volume shooting completely derailed his team's rhythm. The floor entirely fell out a few weeks later on 02/19 vs TOR. During that brutal matchup, a catastrophic 0-for-7 night from beyond the arc cratered his rating to a -17.2 as opponents simply ignored him on the perimeter. Yet, just when his decision-making looked broken, he would tap into his true ceiling. On 02/24 vs CHA, Buzelis erupted for 32 points on 13-of-19 shooting, generating a massive +12.8 impact by delivering a masterclass in shot creation and lethal perimeter execution. If he wants to be a reliable franchise pillar, he must stop letting erratic shot selection sabotage his undeniable talent.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

Best Game

41 PTS vs GSW

Mar 10 | +35.0 impact

Worst Game

4 PTS vs CLE

Nov 09 | -20.5 impact

PATTERNS

Volatile for his role. Buzelis has noticeable ups and downs, with scoring moving ~7 points between games.

Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 49% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.

Defensive difference-maker. Buzelis consistently forces tough shots and protects the rim — opponents shoot worse when he's guarding them.

Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 15 games. Longest cold streak: 3 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY

Based on 75 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.