2025-26 Season
MARVIN BAGLEY III
2025-26 Season
MARVIN BAGLEY III
PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology
TEAM COMPARISON
of 17 teammates (10+ games, 10+ min)
Similar Players
Same position, closest production profile this season.
SKILL DNA
Percentile rank vs 234 Forwards with 10+ games
THE SEASON SO FAR
Marvin Bagley III's opening stretch of the season was defined by a volatile tug-of-war between devastating interior dominance and sudden, passive disappearing acts. When fully engaged, he looked like a revelation. On 10/28 vs PHI, he posted a massive +17.8 impact score by simply outrunning his man in transition to seal early for easy baskets. He occasionally found ways to contribute when his offensive aggression vanished entirely, like on 10/22 vs MIL; despite attempting zero field goals and scoring just a single point, he scraped out a positive +0.2 impact thanks to a stellar +12.6 defensive rating. However, a brief promotion to the starting lineup eventually exposed his limitations against stouter frontcourts. On 12/04 vs BOS, his value cratered to a brutal -11.5 impact score, dragged into the abyss by abysmal 2-for-8 finishing around the rim. Bagley remains a tantalizing weapon when he plays with force, but his frustrating inability to maintain physical presence keeps his night-to-night value wildly unpredictable.
Ruthless interior efficiency and a sudden leap in defensive anchoring defined this dominant mid-season stretch for Marvin Bagley III. By cutting out bad jumpers and completely buying into a gritty, rim-running role, he transformed into a highly destructive two-way weapon. Even when his offensive volume vanished, he found ways to dictate the flow of the game. During a quiet seven-point outing on 12/29 vs PHX, his elite rim deterrence and interior defense drove a stellar +9.2 impact score. He still suffered occasional lapses in physicality against bigger frontcourts. On 01/04 vs MIN, Bagley hit all three of his shot attempts but posted a brutal -7.3 impact because he was bullied relentlessly on the defensive interior. Yet, those poor nights were rare anomalies. Earning a spot with the starting unit on 02/01 vs SAC, he combined near-perfect 7-for-8 shooting with elite defensive positioning to rack up 15 points and a staggering +15.2 impact.
This stretch was defined by a chaotic pendulum swing, with Marvin Bagley III oscillating between overwhelming interior dominance and baffling defensive invisibility. His start on Feb 26 vs SAC perfectly captured the frustrating downside of his game. Despite shooting a near-perfect 5-for-6 from the floor for 10 points, costly defensive lapses completely sank his value and yielded a brutal -14.0 impact score. Conversely, he occasionally found ways to contribute without demanding the ball, posting a +6.3 impact score on Mar 12 vs MEM despite scoring just 6 points. He thrived in that matchup by accepting a low-usage, high-energy role, generating real value through excellent hustle (+4.2) and defensive effort (+5.8) rather than forcing offensive touches. When his offensive aggression actually aligned with his physical tools, the results were staggering. During a massive eruption on Mar 28 vs POR, Bagley poured in 26 points on 11-of-14 shooting, riding unprecedented three-level efficiency to a massive +21.9 impact score. He remains a tantalizing but deeply flawed frontcourt weapon who can single-handedly win a bench-unit matchup or completely bleed away points on the weak side.
IMPACT TIMELINE
Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.
Boom-or-bust player. III's impact swings wildly relative to his average — some nights dominant, others invisible. Scoring varies by ~6 points per game.
Reliable shooter — hits 45%+ from the field in 73% of games. You can count on efficient nights more often than not.
Good defender on his best nights, but it comes and goes. Some games III locks in defensively, others he gets picked apart.
Slight upward trend. First-half impact: +1.3, second-half: +3.3. Modest improvement — possibly settling into a rhythm.
Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 4 games. Longest cold streak: 6 games.
MATCHUP HISTORY
Based on 62 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.
ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM
His shooting stats against each primary defender this season
ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED
How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.
SEASON STATS
GAME LOG
60 games played
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