2025-26 Season
KEON ELLIS
2025-26 Season
KEON ELLIS
PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology
TEAM COMPARISON
of 18 teammates (10+ games, 10+ min)
Similar Players
Same position, closest production profile this season.
SKILL DNA
Percentile rank vs 245 Guards with 10+ games
THE SEASON SO FAR
Keon Ellis spent the first twenty games of the season riding a chaotic pendulum between defensive menace and offensive ghost. When he embraced his role as a relentless point-of-attack pest, his value spiked regardless of his scoring totals. Take 11/26 vs PHX, where he managed just 6 points but posted a massive +7.1 impact score simply by blowing up dribble hand-offs and hounding opposing ball-handlers. Conversely, his hotter shooting nights were sometimes erased by glaring lapses on the other end of the floor. During 11/03 vs DEN, he poured in 15 points on scorching 5-of-8 shooting from deep, yet finished with a -0.4 impact because costly defensive breakdowns bled away all his value. Far too often, hesitation and poor discipline dragged him down entirely. On 11/07 vs OKC, a brutal combination of biting on pump fakes and launching ill-advised shots resulted in an abysmal -7.6 impact score. To survive in this league, Ellis must realize his true calling card is suffocating perimeter defense, not erratic scoring bursts.
This stretch was defined by maddening offensive passivity interrupted by fleeting flashes of perimeter brilliance. When he aggressively hunted his shot, he looked like a legitimate rotation piece, like his surprise start on 12/27 vs DAL where a 21-point barrage shifted the floor's geometry for a +4.7 impact score. He could even swing a game without scoring, as seen on 01/06 vs DAL where a meager five points was offset by relentless point-of-attack pressure and a +5.2 hustle score to generate a +4.6 impact. Yet, his value often cratered even when his shot was falling. Look at 01/25 vs DET; despite pouring in 14 points, his -5.5 impact score revealed the ugly truth of him being ruthlessly hunted by bigger guards on the defensive end. Too often, Ellis completely vanished from the game plan by passing up open looks and crippling his team's spacing. If he refuses to shoot, his defensive hustle simply cannot keep him on the court.
Extreme volatility defined this pivotal stretch for Keon Ellis, who oscillated wildly between acting as a suffocating defensive menace and an absolute offensive zero. When his jumper abandoned him, he often found ways to tilt the floor entirely through sheer effort. Look at his 02/07 vs SAC performance. Despite scoring a meager 6 points, he posted a massive +10.2 impact score because his relentless point-of-attack defense completely blew up opposing pick-and-roll actions. When his outside shot actually connected, as it did on 03/11 vs ORL, he looked like a premier two-way weapon. He poured in 20 points that night, yielding an +8.6 impact score fueled by efficient scoring and timely screen navigation. Yet, his offensive disappearing acts carried a steep cost. During a brutal start on 03/15 vs DAL, he repeatedly bricked open shots, completely killing the team's rhythm and dragging his overall impact down to a dismal -13.1.
IMPACT TIMELINE
Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.
Inconsistent. Ellis has clear good-night/bad-night splits, with scoring swinging ~6 points between games. You're never quite sure which version shows up.
Middle-of-the-road efficiency — shoots 45%+ from the field in 45% of games. Not automatic, but not a problem either.
Defensive difference-maker. Ellis consistently forces tough shots and protects the rim — opponents shoot worse when he's guarding them.
Getting better as the season goes on. First-half impact: -5.9, second-half: -2.5. That's a significant jump — could be a role change, confidence, or development clicking.
Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 3 games. Longest cold streak: 6 games.
MATCHUP HISTORY
Based on 74 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.
ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM
His shooting stats against each primary defender this season
ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED
How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.
SEASON STATS
GAME LOG
73 games played
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