TOR

2025-26 Season

A.J. LAWSON

Toronto Raptors | Guard | 6-6
A.J. Lawson
4.0 PPG
1.7 RPG
0.4 APG
9.3 MPG
-4.3 Impact

Lawson produces at an below average rate for a 9-minute workload.

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NET IMPACT BREAKDOWN
Every stat, every credit, every cost — per game average
-4.3
Scoring +3.5
Points 4.0 PPG = +2.6
Shot Making above expected FG% = +0.9
Creation +0.2
Creation 0.4 AST/g = +0.2
Turnovers -0.7
Turnovers 0.3/g = -0.7
Defense +0.2
Defense 0.5 STL, 0.2 BLK = +0.2
Hustle & Effort +1.3
Rebounds 1.7 RPG = +1.3
Raw Impact +4.5
Baseline (game-average expected) −8.8
Net Impact
-4.3
29th pctl vs Guards

PBP Credit: Every play is analyzed from play-by-play data. Scorers get difficulty-adjusted credit, assisters get creation value based on the shot opportunity they created, and turnovers are classified by type. Shot difficulty is derived from 1M+ shots across 4 seasons. Full methodology

SKILL DNA

Percentile rank vs 245 Guards with 10+ games

Scoring 15th
5.6 PPG
Efficiency 21th
49.4% TS
Playmaking 0th
0.6 APG
Rebounding 23th
2.2 RPG
Defense 8th
+4.1/g
Hustle 28th
+6.7/g
Creation 1th
+0.70/g
Shot Making 9th
+3.75/g
TO Discipline 93th
0.03/min

THE SEASON SO FAR

A.J. Lawson’s early 2025-26 campaign was defined by maddening inconsistency, oscillating wildly between lethal sharpshooting and complete defensive invisibility. Even when his shot was falling, he often gave those points right back on the other end. Look at Dec 07 vs BOS. Despite dropping 10 points in just 14 minutes, he posted a -2.3 impact score because brutal defensive breakdowns and a total lack of hustle entirely erased his offensive punch. Conversely, he occasionally found ways to tilt the floor without filling up the box score. During a quiet two-point outing on Dec 27 vs WAS, Lawson salvaged a +0.9 impact by relying on active hands and relentless ball pressure to disrupt the perimeter. When everything finally clicked, as it did on Mar 29 vs ORL, he punished defenses with lethal efficiency, drilling four three-pointers for 14 points and a staggering +12.5 impact score. Yet, until he stops bleeding value through off-ball lethargy, his rotation minutes will remain a dangerous gamble.

IMPACT TIMELINE

Game-by-game performance vs average. Green = above average, red = below.

PATTERNS

Struggling. Lawson has posted negative impact in 81% of games this season. The production rarely outweighs the cost.

Reliable shooter — hits 45%+ from the field in 75% of games. You can count on efficient nights more often than not.

Tends to go on runs. Longest hot streak: 2 games. Longest cold streak: 9 games.

MATCHUP HISTORY

Based on 28 games with tracking data. Shows who guarded this player on offense and who he guarded on defense, with their shooting stats in those matchups.

ON OFFENSE: WHO GUARDED HIM

His shooting stats against each primary defender this season

Q. Grimes 11.4 poss
FG% 66.7%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.53
PTS 6
T. Maxey 10.8 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
D. Robinson 10.4 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.96
PTS 10
P. George 10.0 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
K. Huerter 9.5 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.21
PTS 2
P. Pritchard 9.4 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.32
PTS 3
V. Edgecombe 8.5 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.24
PTS 2
A. Simons 8.1 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 50.0%
PPP 0.62
PTS 5
D. Whitehead 7.2 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.14
PTS 1
C. LeVert 7.2 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.14
PTS 1

ON DEFENSE: WHO HE GUARDED

How opponents shot when he was the primary defender. Lower FG% = better defense.

P. George 13.7 poss
FG% 33.3%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.15
PTS 2
A. Simons 12.7 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
J. Miller 9.6 poss
FG% 100.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.42
PTS 4
V. Edgecombe 9.5 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
Q. Grimes 9.0 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
K. Huerter 8.1 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.37
PTS 3
T. Maxey 7.8 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0
Q. Jackson 7.6 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.26
PTS 2
J. Hawkins 7.3 poss
FG% 50.0%
3P% 100.0%
PPP 0.41
PTS 3
D. Robinson 7.3 poss
FG% 0.0%
3P% 0.0%
PPP 0.0
PTS 0

SEASON STATS

26
Games
4.0
PPG
1.7
RPG
0.4
APG
0.5
SPG
0.2
BPG
42.7
FG%
40.4
3P%
77.8
FT%
9.3
MPG

GAME LOG

26 games played